ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

Hope we can finally get some run to run consistency with 99l. Everytime it starts to pop up it gets squashed in the 00z run. Let's see what happens tonight.

[wxman57]

I'd say there may finally be a fair chance of development come this weekend as it approaches the Bahamas. Ensembles strongly indicate a northward turn as it nears the U.S. They also indicate possible hurricane strength. May be a close call, or perhaps a hurricane impact in 7-8 days. Need to keep an eye on 99L.

[otowntiger]

I'd say there may finally be a fair chance of development come this weekend as it approaches the Bahamas. Ensembles strongly indicate a northward turn as it nears the U.S. They also indicate possible hurricane strength. May be a close call, or perhaps a hurricane impact in 7-8 days. Need to keep an eye on 99L.

close call as in it may get close to east coast landfall somewhere or close call regarding hurricane strength?

[EquusStorm]

I'll be in Baltimore over the weekend... if proto-possible-Gert were moving faster, that trip might be a bit more interesting.

[ScottNAtlanta]

My sister just moved to Mt Pleasant SC this week (from the west coast)...I sure hope I'm not going to have to drive down there and put up hurricane shutters this season

[blp]

I think the collapse of the 500mb mid level circulation may finally help this consolidate at the lower levels and lead to something down the road. This thing has really struggled with an elongated circulation throughout most it's run with competing vorticity on the NE and SW sides pulling it apart.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Development of this system is not expected during the next few
days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, some
development of this system is possible by the weekend while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[SFLcane]

I'd say there may finally be a fair chance of development come this weekend as it approaches the Bahamas. Ensembles strongly indicate a northward turn as it nears the U.S. They also indicate possible hurricane strength. May be a close call, or perhaps a hurricane impact in 7-8 days. Need to keep an eye on 99L.

Some strongs words there 57 will be watching here in Florida. Thx for the update.

[txwatcher91]

Anyone have the Euro spaghetti ensembles? I’m curious to see the tracks and intensities! Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Anyone have the Euro spaghetti ensembles? I’m curious to see the tracks and intensities! Thanks.

@MJVentrice
12Z Calibrated ECMWF EPS up to 70% chance for development with regards to invest #99L, with a track towards the eastern U.S.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/894685535775723521

[floridasun78]

look like 99l weakling fast tonight

[floridasun78]

I'd say there may finally be a fair chance of development come this weekend as it approaches the Bahamas. Ensembles strongly indicate a northward turn as it nears the U.S. They also indicate possible hurricane strength. May be a close call, or perhaps a hurricane impact in 7-8 days. Need to keep an eye on 99L.

Some strongs words there 57 will be watching here in Florida. Thx for the update.

what reading going issue from north Carolina north

[tolakram]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

We know the GFS is not as good as the euro but check the facts with the track and timing. I am beginning to really tire of the model war crap that goes on around here.

Euro 12Z


Euro 0Z


GFS (all)

[NDG]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

We know the GFS is not as good as the euro but check the facts with the track and timing. I am beginning to really tire of the model war crap that goes on around here.

Euro 12Z
http://i.imgur.com/LCiIt0t.gif

Euro 0Z
http://i.imgur.com/v1d0zQx.gif

GFS (all)
http://i.imgur.com/iMHFHHy.gif

Yeap, the GFS failed on developing the storm just 3 days ago but it has done better with the ridging holding strong to the north of it.

[Happy Pelican]

Since a deep trough is expected to form, I don't really think this will get too far south, I think the OBX northward is in the most danger currently, because any shift west would put the storm in our area

Completely agree. Literally finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June so I don't write anything off until it's long gone. Sadly, many people here (Jersey barriers) have dug in their heels on another devastating storm like Sandy, ever hitting here again.

[Kingarabian]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

We know the GFS is not as good as the euro but check the facts with the track and timing. I am beginning to really tire of the model war crap that goes on around here.

Euro 12Z
http://i.imgur.com/LCiIt0t.gif

Euro 0Z
http://i.imgur.com/v1d0zQx.gif

GFS (all)
http://i.imgur.com/iMHFHHy.gif

Yeap, the GFS failed on developing the storm just 3 days ago but it has done better with the ridging holding strong to the north of it.

I now solely use ensembles for hints of future TC development and when there is a storm to track, I split the solutions from the GFS and Euro.

[AtlanticWind]

Looking to sell what happens when the wave passes 55 west, sea surface temperatures really increase from then on.
We have seen many waves explode at that point if conditions are at least marginal.

[jlauderdal]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

We know the GFS is not as good as the euro but check the facts with the track and timing. I am beginning to really tire of the model war crap that goes on around here.

Euro 12Z
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/LCiIt0t.gif[/img]

Euro 0Z
[im g]http://i.imgur.com/v1d0zQx.gif[/img]

GFS (all)
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/iMHFHHy.gif[/img]

The models often time have differing solutions and that is worthy of discussion.

[jlauderdal]

The models are almost always to far east in the beginning. Hurricane Matthew is a great example of the models slowly shifting west and finally locking onto the final outcome 2 days or so out.

Im thinking anywhere south of copans is in the clear, north of that watch out..

[AtlanticWind]

The models are almost always to far east in the beginning. Hurricane Matthew is a great example of the models slowly shifting west and finally locking onto the final outcome 2 days or so out.

Im thinking anywhere south of copans is in the clear, north of that watch out..

What if I am driving on copans,am I ok