ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

The models are almost always to far east in the beginning. Hurricane Matthew is a great example of the models slowly shifting west and finally locking onto the final outcome 2 days or so out.

Im thinking anywhere south of copans is in the clear, north of that watch out..

What if I am driving on copans,am I ok

Never safe on copans

We were spared with matthew, one of tbese days we get it big time in sofla, sooner rather than later..

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/894733289105178626

[tolakram]

The models often time have differing solutions and that is worthy of discussion.

Absolutely, no argument there.

[bamajammer4eva]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

We know the GFS is not as good as the euro but check the facts with the track and timing. I am beginning to really tire of the model war crap that goes on around here.

Euro 12Z
http://i.imgur.com/LCiIt0t.gif

Euro 0Z
http://i.imgur.com/v1d0zQx.gif

GFS (all)
http://i.imgur.com/iMHFHHy.gif

Yeap, the GFS failed on developing the storm just 3 days ago but it has done better with the ridging holding strong to the north of it.

If the GFS or the Euro or any model fails to develop a storm that develops or has a phantom storm that doesn't develop then can the strength of the Ridge/Trough really be taken into consideration since a storm added or removed to the equation can affect everything else? I noticed last night where one of the pro mets said basically he was not going to use that GFS run because it didn't initialize Franklin as a system and pushed back development until later.

[sma10]

Obviously development is a big IF ... but should it actually develop then there are many track possibilities still on the table, including the coastal recurve scenario that the euro is currently depicting. Don't get too sold on that one just yet, however, as we all know how reliable 7 - 8 day tracks are, even for King Euro

What draws my attention most is that all the models (including the ones that don't even necessarily develop the system) want to send the system West, or just north of west, for quite a while between 72 and 144 hours after reaching north of 22N. This is not necessarily unique, but to me it's a red flag because if the ridge is just a little bit stronger or if development occurs just a little bit further south ... it wouldn't really take that much variance to have a real problem.

Alas, all conjecture still as the euro doesn't even close this off until Thursday at the earliest. If it does develop though kudos should go to the UKmet, which showed a solution last Friday of genesis well north of PR, followed by a sharp turn to the west. Interested to see if that model comes back on board tonight.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I think this storm could be a hermine type situation where it just lingers as an invest for what will seem like forever pulsate with convection and we come here wondering why recon or nhc hasnt upgraded and then bam! storm! So many times watching Hermine as an invest i saw posts writing her off and the models developing her down the line then dropping development ect. She was stubborn and didnt want to die just like 99L doesnt want to die even with so many unfavorable factors right now

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think this storm could be a hermine type situation where it just lingers as an invest for what will seem like forever pulsate with convection and we come here wondering why recon or nhc hasnt upgraded and then bam! storm! So many times watching Hermine as an invest i saw posts writing her off and the models developing her down the line then dropping development ect. She was stubborn and didnt want to die just like 99L doesnt want to die even with so many unfavorable factors right now

The curse of 99L continues

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I think this storm could be a hermine type situation where it just lingers as an invest for what will seem like forever pulsate with convection and we come here wondering why recon or nhc hasnt upgraded and then bam! storm! So many times watching Hermine as an invest i saw posts writing her off and the models developing her down the line then dropping development ect. She was stubborn and didnt want to die just like 99L doesnt want to die even with so many unfavorable factors right now

The curse of 99L continues

It does lol and just like hermine once it does find a conduvice environment it may just get itself together rather quickly. I think wxman57 it may come up on some favorable conditions at 55W

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located a little more 100 miles east of Chetumal,
Mexico.

1. A trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Development of this system is not expected during the next few
days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, some
development of this system is possible by the weekend while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[weathaguyry]

Since a deep trough is expected to form, I don't really think this will get too far south, I think the OBX northward is in the most danger currently, because any shift west would put the storm in our area

Completely agree. Literally finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June so I don't write anything off until it's long gone. Sadly, many people here (Jersey barriers) have dug in their heels on another devastating storm like Sandy, ever hitting here again.

I'm glad to see you back on the boards! I remember discussing Hermine's affects on our area! Anyway, when the GFS went on it's phantom spree, it had a lot of runs coming into our area, now the the Euro is starting to develop this, and it shows it way too close for comfort, I'm starting to raise some eyebrows. In the back bays of southern long island, it looks like the middle of manhattan with all of the houses raised so high. People have thought that another hurricane is very unlikely, and that Sandy was the Hurricane of century, when in reality Sandy was a really big nor- easter and not a Hurricane. Anyways, we shall see what happens with this in the next few days, and pray that nothing happens to us!

[Bocadude85]

Since a deep trough is expected to form, I don't really think this will get too far south, I think the OBX northward is in the most danger currently, because any shift west would put the storm in our area

Completely agree. Literally finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June so I don't write anything off until it's long gone. Sadly, many people here (Jersey barriers) have dug in their heels on another devastating storm like Sandy, ever hitting here again.

I'm glad to see you back on the boards! I remember discussing Hermine's affects on our area! Anyway, when the GFS went on it's phantom spree, it had a lot of runs coming into our area, now the the Euro is starting to develop this, and it shows it way too close for comfort, I'm starting to raise some eyebrows. In the back bays of southern long island, it looks like the middle of manhattan with all of the houses raised so high. People have thought that another hurricane is very unlikely, and that Sandy was the Hurricane of century, when in reality Sandy was a really big nor- easter and not a Hurricane. Anyways, we shall see what happens with this in the next few days, and pray that nothing happens to us!

While the OBX are the most likely area to be threatened if 99L were to develop and follow the 12z Euro's forecast, I would not be to quick to discount the threat to areas farther south especially since nothing has developed yet.

[Siker]

It looks like the 12z Euro actually merged this with an ULL to its northeast as it spun up.

[Happy Pelican]

Since a deep trough is expected to form, I don't really think this will get too far south, I think the OBX northward is in the most danger currently, because any shift west would put the storm in our area

Completely agree. Literally finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June so I don't write anything off until it's long gone. Sadly, many people here (Jersey barriers) have dug in their heels on another devastating storm like Sandy, ever hitting here again.

I'm glad to see you back on the boards! I remember discussing Hermine's affects on our area! Anyway, when the GFS went on it's phantom spree, it had a lot of runs coming into our area, now the the Euro is starting to develop this, and it shows it way too close for comfort, I'm starting to raise some eyebrows. In the back bays of southern long island, it looks like the middle of manhattan with all of the houses raised so high. People have thought that another hurricane is very unlikely, and that Sandy was the Hurricane of century, when in reality Sandy was a really big nor- easter and not a Hurricane. Anyways, we shall see what happens with this in the next few days, and pray that nothing happens to us!

Same to you, my friend. My love and curiosity of all things weather runs deep but sadly, the Sandy recovery has left me with PTSD. We live in an age of instant gratification and if the models don't spit out exact date, time and impacts, too many people quickly lose interest. Couple that with refusing to believe we could ever see a storm like Sandy again and complacency, future storms will be taken with a grain of salt.

[weathaguyry]

Completely agree. Literally finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June so I don't write anything off until it's long gone. Sadly, many people here (Jersey barriers) have dug in their heels on another devastating storm like Sandy, ever hitting here again.

I'm glad to see you back on the boards! I remember discussing Hermine's affects on our area! Anyway, when the GFS went on it's phantom spree, it had a lot of runs coming into our area, now the the Euro is starting to develop this, and it shows it way too close for comfort, I'm starting to raise some eyebrows. In the back bays of southern long island, it looks like the middle of manhattan with all of the houses raised so high. People have thought that another hurricane is very unlikely, and that Sandy was the Hurricane of century, when in reality Sandy was a really big nor- easter and not a Hurricane. Anyways, we shall see what happens with this in the next few days, and pray that nothing happens to us!

Same to you, my friend. My love and curiosity of all things weather runs deep but sadly, the Sandy recovery has left me with PTSD. We live in an age of instant gratification and if the models don't spit out exact date, time and impacts, too many people quickly lose interest. Couple that with refusing to believe we could ever see a storm like Sandy again and complacency, future storms will be taken with a grain of salt.

Same here. I think everyone had an "oh crap" moment during the storm. Mine was seeing someone on the street behind me run in waist deep water to save his new car, shortly followed by the downstairs door busting in and water gushing in. It was at that moment I knew what mother nature could really do!

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro 92hrs out. About the same in intensity as the 12z Euro.

[Siker]

This Euro run seems more realistic than the last one, main vorticity of the wave ends up developing a low rather than a bastard child of the wave and the ULL.

[wxmann_91]

0Z Euro develops a surprisingly robust system off the US East Coast. Threat to the East Coast is low however given the below average heights over the northeastern US (and this has good ensemble agreement).

[Alyono]

0Z Euro develops a surprisingly robust system off the US East Coast. Threat to the East Coast is low however given the below average heights over the northeastern US (and this has good ensemble agreement).

0Z ensembles only have a slight chance of a swipe on Hatteras and Cape Cod

[Alyono]

starting to warm up on this system once it moves into the western Atlantic. May very well get a TS or a cane out of this

[abajan]

Interestingly enough, although 99L is said to be moving WNW, the 8:05 PM TWD stated that the associated low was centered near 15.5N45.5W but the latest TWD places the low near 15N47W. Assuming the earlier TWD's forecaster opted to be more precise than the latter's, it appears that the low has moved directly westward. However, if it's not a matter of precision and the coordinates in the latter TWD are actually 15.0N47.0W, then the low has in fact moved in a slightly south of west direction. Could it just be a wobble?