ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
Remain confident 99L once to 60 west,will develop, become Gert. Pattern favorable for Should be near 30 n, 75 west Mon or Tue as hurrican

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/894992433108406272

[PTrackerLA]

The 12z ensembles will be really interesting now that the operational Euro is forecasting a hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

That is a nice-looking trough in a week that kicks this out to sea. Look how displaced that Bermuda High is! Haven't seen too much of this so far this summer but the long-wave pattern appears to be changing just in time:

http://i.imgur.com/qZipgEi.png

Where is a trough like that during the holiday season?

[northjaxpro]

Very deep trough on the 168 hr EURO run.

[sma10]

That NW "jump" doesn't seem right... it's almost a 200-300 mile stretch, unless there is another vorticity that develops within 48 hrs, it's kind of odd.

I'm thinking that it is the ULL that is currently passing through the Bahamas that leaves a temporary weakness in the ridge...that's what causes the jump. If the initial LLC establishes further south though...That could change everything.

Yes. Good observations here. Also, that vort farther south may be the one that eventually takes over. I have noticed that convection has been gradually building over the southern VORT throughout the day.

The good thing is we won't have to wait very long to see how this evolves. According to 12Z Euro, vort begins developing North of 20N around 58W.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017080818, , BEST, 0, 157N, 518W, 25, 1011, DB

[RL3AO]

I'm already looking forward to that cold front sweeping through NC.

[Blown Away]

18z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017080818, , BEST, 0, 157N, 518W, 25, 1011, DB

Still WNW...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/894990000898674689

[Hammy]

The circulation is holding together remarkably well for there being so little convection.

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/894990000898674689

The magic door is open wider than ever in that shot...

[gatorcane]

That big NW jump between 24-48 hours seems unusual...

Yes it does seem odd, the 00Z run had it too. Might be some kind of center consolidation than a sudden NNW turn. It's as if it is avoiding the NE Leewards going from WNW to NNW back to WNW. It might make somewhat of a difference down the road if it doesn't do that but probably not if the East Coast trough is really going to be that strong.

What is mind-boggling is just how different the GFS and Euro are right now even at 72 hours. But the NAVGEM also came in with no development now so the Euro is pretty much by itself on how strong this gets outside of the usual overly bullish CMC.

[OuterBanker]

My concern is now starting to develop. Between the Euro and other models now jumping on board, with what JB is saying and the weather here this summer I’m truly concerned. We have already faced flooding that almost approached Matthew levels this year. We had fourteen inches of rain in the first two weeks of July which caused the flooding. The first week of August we are locked in another wet spell that won’t end for a week. If anything comes this way in the next two weeks I’m afraid that the massive flooding will occur again. Most (myself included) haven’t fully recovered from Matthew yet. Maybe it’s time to try Xanax.

[floridasun78]

nhc watching 99l next week models too!!! The weather over South Florida for early next week will depend on
the strength and track of the tropical disturbance over the
Central Atlantic waters. The GFS model is showing the disturbance
to move west northwest and through South Florida with little
development. However, the ECWMF model shows the disturbance
developing and moving more to the north northwest and staying east
of the Bahamas early next week. Therefore, at this time, will
keep an easterly wind flow over the area with the typical summer
time weather pattern until the models become more in agreement on
the strength and path of the disturbance.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, haven't seen a trough like that in the summer months. What a coincidence.

[SFLcane]

Few come close to Florida..

[Alyono]

That big NW jump between 24-48 hours seems unusual...

Yes it does seem odd, the 00Z run had it too. Might be some kind of center consolidation than a sudden NNW turn. It's as if it is avoiding the NE Leewards going from WNW to NNW back to WNW. It might make somewhat of a difference down the road if it doesn't do that but probably not if the East Coast trough is really going to be that strong.

What is mind-boggling is just how different the GFS and Euro are right now even at 72 hours. But the NAVGEM also came in with no development now so the Euro is pretty much by itself on how strong this gets outside of the usual overly bullish CMC.

NAVGEM does develop it, albiet only to a TD. UKMET also develops it.

Everything not named GFS develops it

[TheStormExpert]

As rare as a trough that deep seems there were many of them like that from around late July 2004 through most of August that year. Followed by a complete 180 degree flip to a strong Bermuda High in September 2004. If the NAO does indeed go positive in 2 weeks or so hopefully we do not see a repeat performance.

[sma10]

@BigJoeBastardi
Remain confident 99L once to 60 west,will develop, become Gert. Pattern favorable for Should be near 30 n, 75 west Mon or Tue as hurrican

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/894992433108406272

If I were feeling snarky, I suppose I would say, "Well, at least we now know for sure where 99L won't be next Mon or Tue"

[Happy Pelican]

Is there anything out there that could actually "push" this into the east coast? I'm still learning and when I say learning, I don't know much at all.