ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

the faster this moves, the greater the chance of a United States landfall

[AxaltaRacing24]

As rare as a trough that deep seems there were many of them like that from around late July 2004 through most of August that year. Followed by a complete 180 degree flip to a strong Bermuda High in September 2004. If the NAO does indeed go positive in 2 weeks or so hopefully we do not see a repeat performance.

Agreed.
This whole pattern besides the ESNO is very 2004 like. It is going to be an interesting year.

[OuterBanker]

Euro is starting to make me nervous.

[RL3AO]

Is there anything out there that could actually "push" this into the east coast? I'm still learning and when I say learning, I don't know much at all.

A sufficient combination of a slower cold front, a faster moving storm, or a weaker trough/cold front. Since it's only seven days away, there is a high likelihood of a strong cold front moving through the Carolinas next week. But, it could be 12 hours slower than modeled and the wave could move a few hundred miles further west than modeled over the next week. If those happen, it could be enough to let the storm get closer to the Outer Banks. On the other hand, the opposite results could keep it further away.

[RL3AO]

You guys, it's a 1.5 to 2 standard deviation anomaly trough. It's not that significant (statistically). Some of you are making it sound like a historic and rare November like cold front moving through the eastern US next week.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF ensembles are bullish.

[Blown Away]

12z Bext Track: AL, 99, 2017080812, , BEST, 0, 154N, 502W, 25, 1011, DB

Per the 12z Euro, 99L will cross 20N @57W and gain @8 degrees latitude over next 72 hours.

[ronjon]

With good model agreement between the GFS and Euro on the depth and timing of the east coast trough - looks like we might be able to watch this one without a "Mathew" type event Still, its 6 days out. Need another couple of days of model runs confirming this solution before we sound the all clear yet.

[gatorcane]

18Z guidance. Models that are available want to take it immediately WNW-NW but it is not moving that way, still mostly west or a little north of:

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue just tweeted the graphic below. Most EC members turn it north before it reaches the U.S.

[AutoPenalti]

The way it's going I honestly think it's going to be a bit further south.

[OuterBanker]

Ryan Maue just tweeted the graphic below. Most EC members turn it north before it reaches the U.S.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGu5FyuU0AAvDpu.jpg

Thanks Wxman, I'll take it. Ideal alley between Bermuda and NC. Make for sunny days and great surf. Now feeling better.

[txwatcher91]

It wouldn’t take much of a delay in the cold front, or faster motion from 99L to shift everything out, especially seeing as it would be D6 and D7 when it’s moving up the coast.

[floridasun78]

i talk to nhc i live here in miami their told me gfs is ok their still using it their look gfs doing off season hurr season see if need more work and ask them 99l their saying starting have good feeling that 99l will turn off usa coast out to sea

[Alyono]

Is there anything out there that could actually "push" this into the east coast? I'm still learning and when I say learning, I don't know much at all.

A sufficient combination of a slower cold front, a faster moving storm, or a weaker trough/cold front. Since it's only seven days away, there is a high likelihood of a strong cold front moving through the Carolinas next week. But, it could be 12 hours slower than modeled and the wave could move a few hundred miles further west than modeled over the next week. If those happen, it could be enough to let the storm get closer to the Outer Banks. On the other hand, the opposite results could keep it further away.

a stronger front could also bring it onshore as it would be orientated more N/S instead of W/E

[Kingarabian]

Is there anything out there that could actually "push" this into the east coast? I'm still learning and when I say learning, I don't know much at all.

A sufficient combination of a slower cold front, a faster moving storm, or a weaker trough/cold front. Since it's only seven days away, there is a high likelihood of a strong cold front moving through the Carolinas next week. But, it could be 12 hours slower than modeled and the wave could move a few hundred miles further west than modeled over the next week. If those happen, it could be enough to let the storm get closer to the Outer Banks. On the other hand, the opposite results could keep it further away.

a stronger front could also bring it onshore as it would be orientated more N/S instead of W/E

Or that upper Midwest high needs to drop lower and allow for heights to rebuild off the east coast after the initial weakness, thus trapping 99L/Gert.

[Emmett_Brown]

We saw the operational run of the Euro shift 99L W by about 100 mi from the 0z run to the 12z run. Does anyone happen to know if the ensemble mean shifted W as well?

[Kingarabian]

We saw the operational run of the Euro shift 99L W by about 100 mi from 0z to 12z. Does anyone happen to know if the ensemble mean shifted W as well?

Almost a unanimous recurve at the moment per the 12z EPS. Could still change as it's still lengthy period out.

[RL3AO]

Is there anything out there that could actually "push" this into the east coast? I'm still learning and when I say learning, I don't know much at all.

A sufficient combination of a slower cold front, a faster moving storm, or a weaker trough/cold front. Since it's only seven days away, there is a high likelihood of a strong cold front moving through the Carolinas next week. But, it could be 12 hours slower than modeled and the wave could move a few hundred miles further west than modeled over the next week. If those happen, it could be enough to let the storm get closer to the Outer Banks. On the other hand, the opposite results could keep it further away.

a stronger front could also bring it onshore as it would be orientated more N/S instead of W/E

True. I was thinking more about the timing.

[NDG]

The Carolinas have to stay on alert, even the east coast of FL, I would be more confident if the trough was forecasted to swing out to the sea instead the trough axis will hang around the east coast making it too close for comfort.