ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#801 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:37 pm

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 90.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

Visible satellite images and surface synoptic data indicate that
the center of the cyclone is nearing the northwest coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The overall cloud pattern remains fairly well
organized, with distinct banding features and well-defined
upper-level outflow. Based on the assumption that only slow
weakening has been occurring, the current intensity is set at 35 kt.
Franklin should begin to strengthen very soon, when its center moves
over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. The dynamical
guidance indicates that north-northeasterly shear will begin to
affect the tropical cyclone when it moves farther west in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which should be an impediment for
strengthening. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance but close to the intensity model consensus. Given
that it is quite possible that Franklin could become a hurricane by
the time of landfall, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch
for the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.

The motion continues west-northwestward or 290/10 kt. A
mid-tropospheric high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf
coast should cause a generally westward motion over the next couple
of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous
ones, and not far from the latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 20.2N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 20.5N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 20.4N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#802 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:43 pm

Nice outflow out of all quads with polar and equatorial channels. Yes, the environment looks really good and this will likely become a hurricane within the next 24-30 hours and probably a respectable one.

Image
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#803 Postby lrak » Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:47 pm

I wonder why they said "should" instead of "will" in the forecast for it to continue west instead of wnw?
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#804 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:56 pm

Convection starting to wrap around the eastern side and the upper clouds are being pushed northwest again after it appeared some northerly shear was moving in earlier.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#805 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:01 pm

lrak wrote:I wonder why they said "should" instead of "will" in the forecast for it to continue west instead of wnw?

Because meteorology involves predicting the future, which is never certain.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#806 Postby lrak » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:04 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
lrak wrote:I wonder why they said "should" instead of "will" in the forecast for it to continue west instead of wnw?

Because meteorology involves predicting the future, which is never certain.


I always get a lesson from every post on this board. 8-)
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#807 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:10 pm

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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#808 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:24 pm

That BOC bowl is honey hole for development... Crazy, small area with land on 3 sides and systems just love it there...
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#809 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:54 pm

Hurricane Hunters going for the center just off the coast.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Models

#810 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:12 pm

18z HWRF now calling for a 90kt landfall. HMON calling for 100kts.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#811 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:25 pm

Wrapping up nicely and it's only just barely off the coast.

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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#812 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:28 pm

Yep still close to the coast. Too close for the hurricane hunters to make a center fix.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#813 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:34 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 082324
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 20 20170808
231400 2055N 09118W 8431 01520 0046 +172 +088 072034 035 031 000 00
231430 2057N 09119W 8428 01525 0047 +170 +088 070035 035 031 001 00
231500 2058N 09120W 8429 01524 0048 +171 +088 069036 036 033 001 00
231530 2059N 09122W 8431 01524 0051 +170 +089 066035 035 032 001 00
231600 2100N 09123W 8433 01524 0050 +172 +089 067034 035 032 002 00
231630 2101N 09124W 8429 01529 0054 +170 +089 064035 036 030 001 00
231700 2103N 09126W 8429 01529 0052 +174 +089 065033 035 032 002 00
231730 2104N 09127W 8430 01530 0055 +171 +090 063035 035 034 000 00
231800 2105N 09128W 8429 01531 0054 +174 +090 058034 035 032 001 00
231830 2106N 09130W 8430 01530 0055 +175 +090 058034 034 034 000 00
231900 2107N 09131W 8428 01535 0057 +172 +091 062033 034 033 001 00
231930 2109N 09132W 8430 01533 0057 +171 +091 064033 035 032 001 00
232000 2110N 09133W 8427 01539 0060 +170 +091 063036 037 033 001 00
232030 2111N 09135W 8425 01539 0061 +170 +091 062038 038 031 000 00
232100 2112N 09136W 8430 01535 0063 +170 +091 065039 040 031 000 00
232130 2114N 09137W 8429 01537 0066 +168 +090 068038 040 031 001 00
232200 2115N 09139W 8430 01536 0064 +172 +090 066036 037 033 002 00
232230 2116N 09140W 8429 01540 0065 +171 +089 063035 037 035 002 00
232300 2117N 09141W 8436 01531 0067 +167 +089 063036 037 035 003 00
232330 2118N 09143W 8433 01536 0079 +149 +088 061036 039 036 005 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#814 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:37 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 082334
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 21 20170808
232400 2120N 09144W 8423 01546 0075 +157 +084 062038 039 032 004 00
232430 2121N 09145W 8429 01541 0072 +165 +079 062036 038 030 001 00
232500 2122N 09147W 8430 01542 0072 +169 +077 062035 036 030 000 00
232530 2123N 09148W 8431 01542 0072 +170 +077 064036 036 027 001 00
232600 2125N 09149W 8428 01545 0071 +171 +078 063036 037 028 001 00
232630 2126N 09151W 8429 01546 0071 +173 +080 065037 037 028 001 00
232700 2127N 09152W 8432 01544 0073 +170 +081 067037 037 028 001 00
232730 2128N 09153W 8428 01548 0076 +169 +082 068038 038 027 001 00
232800 2129N 09154W 8432 01545 0079 +164 +083 064038 038 028 001 00
232830 2131N 09156W 8415 01561 0084 +158 +083 059036 039 031 006 00
232900 2132N 09157W 8431 01546 0082 +159 +081 057037 038 035 001 00
232930 2133N 09158W 8430 01547 0081 +165 +078 061037 038 035 001 00
233000 2134N 09200W 8430 01550 0094 +147 +077 055036 037 034 002 03
233030 2135N 09201W 8423 01556 0090 +150 +074 056038 040 033 003 03
233100 2135N 09203W 8433 01548 0084 +166 +071 055037 040 036 002 00
233130 2134N 09205W 8429 01552 0081 +168 +069 054037 037 034 001 00
233200 2133N 09207W 8431 01550 0082 +167 +070 054037 037 035 000 00
233230 2132N 09209W 8429 01552 0083 +166 +072 053036 037 034 001 00
233300 2130N 09210W 8426 01552 0081 +166 +074 054037 038 035 001 03
233330 2128N 09210W 8424 01558 0083 +166 +076 052035 037 035 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#815 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:45 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 082344
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 22 20170808
233400 2127N 09211W 8420 01559 0080 +165 +078 052035 036 030 002 00
233430 2125N 09211W 8420 01559 0082 +165 +078 050034 036 029 001 00
233500 2123N 09210W 8433 01546 0082 +167 +079 049034 034 029 001 00
233530 2121N 09210W 8427 01550 0080 +165 +079 049033 034 030 001 00
233600 2120N 09209W 8429 01548 0079 +165 +079 048032 033 031 001 00
233630 2118N 09208W 8429 01547 0077 +166 +080 048031 032 037 002 00
233700 2117N 09207W 8440 01535 0077 +165 +080 051030 031 037 002 00
233730 2116N 09205W 8426 01546 0074 +166 +080 052031 031 035 001 00
233800 2115N 09204W 8430 01542 0071 +167 +080 050030 031 035 000 00
233830 2114N 09203W 8425 01546 0069 +169 +080 048029 030 033 001 00
233900 2113N 09202W 8433 01537 0069 +167 +081 051032 032 032 000 00
233930 2112N 09200W 8425 01544 0068 +168 +081 051033 033 031 001 00
234000 2111N 09159W 8433 01535 0069 +165 +082 050032 033 031 000 00
234030 2110N 09158W 8428 01541 0071 +164 +082 048031 032 032 001 00
234100 2108N 09157W 8429 01539 0073 +160 +081 046033 033 032 003 00
234130 2107N 09155W 8432 01537 0073 +159 +080 049035 035 032 003 00
234200 2106N 09154W 8432 01535 0064 +168 +077 049035 036 027 003 00
234230 2105N 09153W 8432 01535 0066 +169 +076 049037 039 028 002 00
234300 2104N 09152W 8429 01537 0066 +167 +076 051036 039 031 002 00
234330 2103N 09150W 8429 01536 0066 +165 +076 052035 036 033 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#816 Postby Kazmit » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:49 pm

Pressure down to 999mb per the latest advisory.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#817 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:53 pm

Campeche is reporting 1000.67mb.
Looks like Franklin didn't take much of a hit.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#818 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:55 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 082354
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 23 20170808
234400 2102N 09149W 8429 01534 0064 +165 +077 049036 036 030 002 00
234430 2101N 09148W 8433 01529 0061 +168 +078 048034 036 031 001 00
234500 2100N 09147W 8429 01533 0061 +170 +078 050033 033 031 001 00
234530 2059N 09145W 8430 01531 0060 +169 +079 051032 033 032 001 00
234600 2058N 09144W 8425 01536 0058 +168 +080 052029 031 033 000 00
234630 2057N 09143W 8429 01530 0057 +167 +081 050031 032 033 001 00
234700 2056N 09142W 8431 01528 0057 +166 +081 051032 033 035 001 00
234730 2055N 09140W 8431 01526 0054 +169 +081 050030 031 035 003 00
234800 2053N 09139W 8423 01534 0060 +159 +081 046031 032 035 003 00
234830 2052N 09138W 8430 01526 0051 +171 +079 049031 032 032 003 00
234900 2051N 09137W 8431 01526 0051 +171 +077 053032 032 032 001 00
234930 2050N 09135W 8425 01529 0048 +174 +077 054031 032 033 000 00
235000 2049N 09134W 8433 01519 0047 +175 +079 055030 030 033 001 00
235030 2048N 09133W 8429 01523 0044 +176 +080 056029 031 032 001 00
235100 2047N 09132W 8425 01525 0042 +176 +082 058030 031 032 000 00
235130 2046N 09130W 8433 01517 0045 +171 +083 057031 032 032 001 00
235200 2045N 09129W 8429 01520 0043 +173 +085 055031 032 032 001 00
235230 2044N 09128W 8430 01518 0037 +175 +085 055032 032 032 001 00
235300 2043N 09127W 8432 01514 0039 +171 +086 055031 032 032 001 00
235330 2042N 09125W 8429 01517 0041 +169 +086 054029 030 030 002 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#819 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:05 pm

The 500mb-vort elliptical feature seems to be improving.

Image
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#820 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:07 pm

GCANE wrote:Campeche is reporting 1000.67mb.
Looks like Franklin didn't take much of a hit.


That's only what, 3-4mb higher than landfall?

I'm honestly surprised how well Franklin held together--yesterday I was expecting to see a large gaping dry area in the center which is common with Yucatan systems, but the drier air seems well north of the inner core.
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