ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#861 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:06 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 090204
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 36 20170809
015400 2139N 09205W 8425 01552 0078 +169 +075 077037 039 035 002 00
015430 2140N 09206W 8433 01546 0079 +171 +077 077039 039 034 002 00
015500 2141N 09207W 8430 01551 0075 +179 +078 071039 040 032 002 00
015530 2143N 09208W 8429 01552 0077 +176 +079 069040 041 032 001 00
015600 2144N 09209W 8431 01551 0078 +175 +081 069040 041 032 001 00
015630 2146N 09210W 8427 01556 0080 +175 +083 070041 042 033 001 00
015700 2147N 09211W 8430 01553 0082 +171 +085 069041 042 028 003 03
015730 2146N 09213W 8429 01555 0081 +170 +087 067041 041 /// /// 03
015800 2144N 09213W 8437 01547 0081 +172 +088 066039 041 033 001 00
015830 2143N 09213W 8429 01553 0078 +174 +089 065041 042 034 001 00
015900 2141N 09213W 8429 01551 0076 +175 +088 062042 043 033 001 00
015930 2139N 09214W 8430 01548 0075 +175 +088 058042 043 033 001 00
020000 2137N 09214W 8428 01550 0076 +172 +088 056039 041 034 001 00
020030 2135N 09214W 8430 01547 0078 +166 +088 055038 038 033 002 00
020100 2134N 09215W 8429 01547 0079 +162 +087 057039 040 032 001 00
020130 2132N 09215W 8429 01545 0075 +166 +086 053039 039 032 001 00
020200 2130N 09215W 8427 01546 0079 +159 +084 054039 040 036 004 00
020230 2128N 09216W 8429 01545 0076 +165 +081 064039 040 037 002 00
020300 2126N 09216W 8429 01542 0073 +166 +078 063037 038 039 001 00
020330 2125N 09216W 8432 01540 0070 +169 +077 063037 038 039 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#862 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:08 pm

:uarrow: CDO shape tells me shear, but the WV loop tells me otherwise--could be some dry air being pulled off the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#863 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:13 pm

Latest IR shows the convective burst over the center and expanding NW. I don’t think there is shear right now. It will look like a different beast tomorrow morning imo.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#864 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:15 pm

Only taking intermittent looks for the NOAA P3 but saw this:

000
URNT15 KWBC 090210
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 25 20170809
020100 2011N 09131W 6951 03147 9983 +121 +083 346022 024 020 003 00
020130 2012N 09129W 6951 03146 9975 +124 +088 351021 022 021 003 00
020200 2012N 09126W 6952 03142 9969 +128 +082 354018 019 025 003 00
020230 2013N 09124W 6950 03142 9970 +125 +083 353016 017 022 004 00
020300 2013N 09122W 6953 03134 9968 +123 +092 344013 014 019 002 00
020330 2013N 09119W 6952 03134 9963 +126 +086 332009 011 016 002 00
020400 2014N 09117W 6952 03133 9962 +127 +080 292006 006 010 002 00
020430 2014N 09115W 6952 03135 9960 +129 +082 267005 005 013 003 00
020500 2014N 09113W 6953 03133 9958 +131 +078 227007 010 021 002 00
020530 2015N 09110W 6951 03135 9955 +134 +078 203011 012 021 003 00
020600 2015N 09108W 6952 03135 9956 +133 +077 201014 015 022 003 00
020630 2015N 09106W 6951 03138 9959 +132 +080 203014 014 021 002 00
020700 2016N 09103W 6954 03134 9962 +129 +082 195016 017 020 003 00
020730 2016N 09101W 6953 03136 9971 +122 +092 181019 021 022 003 00
020800 2017N 09059W 6951 03142 9974 +119 +110 176022 023 024 004 00
020830 2017N 09057W 6956 03135 9976 +118 +110 173025 028 028 004 00
020900 2017N 09054W 6957 03136 9984 +113 +106 174028 028 029 003 00
020930 2018N 09052W 6959 03137 9988 +113 +104 174029 029 036 004 00
021000 2018N 09050W 6956 03146 9994 +112 +108 175033 037 052 007 00
021030 2019N 09048W 6948 03158 0001 +106 //// 174041 046 060 021 05
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#865 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:16 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 090214
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 37 20170809
020400 2123N 09217W 8432 01540 0070 +169 +076 061038 039 037 002 00
020430 2121N 09217W 8429 01541 0068 +171 +077 059039 040 036 001 00
020500 2119N 09217W 8433 01536 0066 +171 +077 057038 039 037 002 00
020530 2117N 09218W 8428 01541 0068 +168 +078 056039 040 038 001 00
020600 2116N 09218W 8430 01539 0066 +168 +078 056038 040 037 001 00
020630 2114N 09218W 8428 01539 0064 +170 +079 055040 041 038 001 00
020700 2112N 09219W 8429 01537 0070 +159 +079 051040 041 035 003 00
020730 2110N 09219W 8430 01536 0066 +165 +078 050036 040 038 001 00
020800 2108N 09219W 8429 01535 0062 +170 +076 050037 038 039 001 00
020830 2107N 09220W 8432 01531 0067 +159 +075 045039 041 039 001 00
020900 2105N 09220W 8429 01531 0072 +150 +073 043037 040 041 012 00
020930 2103N 09221W 8441 01520 0062 +167 +069 046035 036 038 005 00
021000 2101N 09221W 8429 01533 0063 +164 +065 047037 038 036 001 00
021030 2059N 09221W 8427 01533 0062 +163 +064 043035 037 037 003 00
021100 2057N 09222W 8433 01525 0059 +167 +063 044036 036 039 001 00
021130 2056N 09222W 8431 01528 0057 +170 +064 046036 036 037 001 00
021200 2054N 09222W 8429 01531 0067 +155 +066 042038 040 037 004 00
021230 2052N 09223W 8429 01531 0059 +168 +065 041036 037 035 000 00
021300 2050N 09223W 8429 01531 0058 +168 +064 040035 036 033 000 00
021330 2048N 09223W 8428 01531 0058 +167 +065 039035 036 036 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#866 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:22 pm

52kt unflagged SFMR from NOAA's plane in that convective blowup.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#867 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:26 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 090224
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 38 20170809
021400 2046N 09224W 8429 01530 0054 +173 +067 039035 035 036 000 00
021430 2044N 09224W 8429 01530 0055 +171 +069 037034 034 035 000 00
021500 2043N 09224W 8428 01530 0054 +172 +071 034034 034 034 001 00
021530 2041N 09225W 8430 01528 0053 +171 +073 034034 035 034 001 00
021600 2039N 09225W 8430 01526 0054 +170 +075 032033 034 033 001 00
021630 2037N 09225W 8430 01528 0053 +170 +076 030032 033 032 001 00
021700 2035N 09226W 8429 01528 0053 +169 +078 028032 033 032 001 00
021730 2033N 09226W 8428 01529 0054 +168 +078 026032 033 031 001 00
021800 2032N 09227W 8429 01526 0053 +170 +079 026030 032 032 001 00
021830 2030N 09227W 8430 01525 0053 +169 +079 027030 030 032 000 00
021900 2028N 09227W 8429 01526 0053 +167 +079 026030 031 030 002 03
021930 2026N 09226W 8433 01523 0051 +170 +080 023028 029 /// /// 03
022000 2027N 09225W 8431 01524 0052 +169 +081 028029 029 /// /// 03
022030 2028N 09224W 8432 01524 0052 +170 +082 031029 029 033 000 03
022100 2029N 09224W 8429 01526 0053 +169 +082 029029 030 033 000 00
022130 2031N 09224W 8424 01531 0053 +168 +083 030030 031 031 001 00
022200 2032N 09223W 8430 01526 0053 +170 +083 031029 031 032 002 00
022230 2033N 09223W 8429 01528 0052 +171 +082 030030 031 032 001 00
022300 2035N 09223W 8433 01524 0053 +168 +083 033031 032 033 001 03
022330 2036N 09224W 8430 01530 0057 +164 +083 032032 033 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#868 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:36 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 090234
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 39 20170809
022400 2035N 09226W 8430 01528 0053 +170 +083 030034 034 /// /// 03
022430 2033N 09226W 8358 01595 0045 +167 +082 027032 033 032 001 03
022500 2031N 09226W 8126 01832 0040 +155 +081 028029 031 /// /// 03
022530 2030N 09227W 7883 02097 0049 +134 +079 027032 035 030 001 00
022600 2028N 09227W 7710 02272 0037 +135 +074 026030 030 030 001 00
022630 2026N 09228W 7506 02513 0040 +124 +069 026031 031 031 001 00
022700 2024N 09228W 7277 02776 0037 +115 +064 026032 032 030 002 03
022730 2022N 09228W 7083 03002 0036 +104 +059 027030 032 030 001 03
022800 2020N 09228W 6987 03120 0034 +100 +054 023030 030 030 001 00
022830 2018N 09229W 6965 03148 0037 +100 +049 021030 031 030 000 00
022900 2016N 09229W 6970 03145 0042 +096 +045 017031 031 028 001 00
022930 2014N 09230W 6967 03146 0041 +096 +041 015032 033 026 001 00
023000 2012N 09230W 6967 03147 0041 +099 +037 015033 033 025 001 00
023030 2010N 09230W 6966 03149 0044 +095 +034 014033 033 030 001 00
023100 2008N 09231W 6967 03149 0046 +095 +032 013032 033 028 001 00
023130 2006N 09231W 6967 03149 0050 +093 +030 012033 034 028 001 00
023200 2004N 09231W 6969 03147 0060 +086 +027 009030 032 027 002 00
023230 2002N 09232W 6967 03151 0049 +095 +023 011028 029 027 001 00
023300 2002N 09232W 6967 03151 0054 +091 +021 009028 029 030 006 00
023330 1958N 09233W 6974 03141 0059 +087 +018 003027 027 033 008 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#869 Postby stormreader » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:38 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Anyone else getting deja-vu from Karl right now? Franklin's evolution the past few hours reminds me of the evolution and predicted intensity for Karl once it emerged off the Yucatan. Hoping that's not the case.


Karl had a tighter circulation. Oddly this one seems more broad on the second pass.


Yea, now that you mention it, the CDO also looks pretty odd -- looks like a half-circle as of 01:45 UTC.

Image

Think that's just temporary. The "missing" northern half likely the result of circulation inflow from across the Yucatan, while the "full" southern half is receiving inflow and moisture from the southern gulf. Should become more balanced as the storm moves further out into the gulf.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#870 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:42 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 090240
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 28 20170809
023100 2141N 09025W 4486 06750 0382 -070 -117 109039 039 022 002 00
023130 2143N 09024W 4453 06806 0386 -073 -128 111038 038 023 002 00
023200 2146N 09024W 4451 06812 0389 -078 -131 108038 039 024 002 00
023230 2148N 09023W 4449 06813 0389 -081 -132 102042 043 024 002 00
023300 2151N 09022W 4452 06812 0390 -078 -148 101045 045 026 001 00
023330 2154N 09021W 4451 06815 0391 -077 -160 099046 046 024 002 00
023400 2156N 09021W 4452 06812 0392 -073 -166 097046 046 026 001 00
023430 2159N 09020W 4453 06816 0394 -071 -165 099045 046 026 002 00
023500 2201N 09019W 4449 06820 0395 -070 -165 096046 046 026 002 00
023530 2204N 09018W 4451 06820 0396 -072 -153 096044 045 028 001 00
023600 2206N 09018W 4452 06819 0398 -071 -150 098042 043 025 002 00
023630 2209N 09017W 4452 06819 0398 -071 -151 101042 042 027 002 00
023700 2212N 09016W 4452 06820 0399 -072 -153 101041 041 026 002 00
023730 2214N 09015W 4452 06821 0400 -068 -152 105040 041 025 001 00
023800 2217N 09014W 4453 06821 0400 -067 -150 106039 040 026 001 00
023830 2219N 09014W 4451 06823 0400 -069 -153 107038 040 026 001 00
023900 2222N 09013W 4452 06822 0401 -066 -154 110038 039 024 001 00
023930 2225N 09012W 4452 06823 0402 -066 -158 111038 038 027 001 00
024000 2227N 09011W 4452 06824 0403 -070 -160 110036 037 024 002 00
024030 2230N 09011W 4451 06825 0403 -070 -169 105034 035 025 001 00
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#871 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:42 pm

weathaguyry wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a hurricane based on the way it's looking, maybe a cat 2 if it really strengthens fast


I think Cat 2 was upper end a few days ago. It's pretty remote now because it's expected to just keep moving. With landfall probably 30-36 hours away, I don't see Cat 2. 2% chance maybe? It probably will intensify until landfall, but I've been harping that since last week. System also reminds me of Isaac 2012 with a naked northern half (at the moment).
Last edited by Steve on Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#872 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:42 pm

Intense explosion of convection directly over the CoC as of 02:15 UTC
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#873 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:45 pm

NOAA indicated possibly 60mph, if AF plane can verify this then Franklin regained all the intensity it lost over the Yucatan in just a few hours, unfortunately the plane doesn't look like it'll get to the center before the advisory comes out.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#874 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:45 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 090141
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 09/01:22:20Z
B. 20 deg 17 min N
091 deg 03 min W
C. 850 mb 1401 m
D. 43 kt
E. 341 deg 16 nm
F. 095 deg 48 kt
G. 343 deg 52 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1528 m
J. 20 C / 1518 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0307A FRANKLIN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 48 KT 343 / 52 NM 01:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 205 / 9 KT
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#875 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:45 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 090244
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 40 20170809
023400 1956N 09233W 6968 03148 0050 +094 +015 359028 029 029 005 00
023430 1954N 09233W 6966 03152 0047 +099 +013 357027 029 026 000 00
023500 1952N 09234W 6968 03148 0047 +097 +013 004026 026 024 001 00
023530 1950N 09234W 6966 03152 0054 +093 +013 003027 027 024 001 00
023600 1949N 09234W 6967 03152 0055 +094 +013 001028 028 024 001 00
023630 1947N 09235W 6968 03152 0054 +095 +014 000028 029 026 001 00
023700 1945N 09235W 6967 03153 0057 +092 +014 001030 030 026 001 00
023730 1943N 09236W 6967 03154 0060 +090 +013 355029 030 027 002 00
023800 1941N 09236W 6967 03155 0065 +088 +013 353030 032 032 008 00
023830 1939N 09236W 6965 03158 0091 +068 +011 354032 034 032 012 00
023900 1937N 09237W 6971 03152 0088 +072 +006 352025 028 028 011 00
023930 1935N 09237W 6967 03157 0070 +088 -001 347023 024 025 001 00
024000 1933N 09237W 6967 03158 0070 +087 -006 339023 024 024 000 00
024030 1931N 09238W 6963 03163 0066 +091 -007 345023 024 023 001 00
024100 1929N 09238W 6967 03158 0063 +095 -006 345024 025 025 002 00
024130 1927N 09239W 6965 03161 0061 +094 -003 351026 028 028 002 00
024200 1925N 09239W 6963 03163 0092 +072 -000 341031 033 037 020 00
024230 1924N 09239W 6964 03161 0096 +069 -002 341023 028 038 010 03
024300 1922N 09240W 6970 03157 0085 +077 -006 354023 023 037 006 00
024330 1920N 09240W 6967 03158 0094 +070 -012 353026 027 029 004 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#876 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:46 pm

Steve wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a hurricane based on the way it's looking, maybe a cat 2 if it really strengthens fast


I think Cat 2 was upper end a few days ago. It's pretty remote now because it's expected to just keep moving. With landfall probably 30-36 hours away, I don't see Cat 2. 2% chance maybe? It probably will intensify until landfall, but I've been harping that since last week. System also reminds me of Isaac 2012 with a naked northern half (at the moment).


I've been thinking strong cat 1 - cat 2, BOC storms always seem to over-perform in recent years and this one has great conditions to work with. The current blowup of convection tells me it's already on it's way.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#877 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:46 pm

Pressure readings also seem to be around 995 or so, give or take a mb. It’s blowing up convection over the center big time with some super cold cloud tops. This could RI as modeled.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#878 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:52 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 090250
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 29 20170809
024100 2233N 09010W 4451 06826 0404 -063 -194 108033 033 027 002 00
024130 2235N 09009W 4451 06826 0403 -063 -203 107033 035 028 002 00
024200 2238N 09008W 4451 06826 0403 -062 -221 105033 034 027 002 00
024230 2240N 09007W 4452 06827 0405 -066 -214 100033 034 028 001 00
024300 2243N 09007W 4450 06829 0405 -062 -199 096030 031 027 001 00
024330 2246N 09006W 4451 06829 0406 -065 -177 099029 030 027 001 00
024400 2248N 09005W 4452 06828 0407 -069 -198 099030 031 026 001 00
024430 2251N 09004W 4451 06829 0407 -070 -204 103032 032 029 001 00
024500 2254N 09003W 4452 06828 0407 -072 -217 105032 033 027 001 00
024530 2256N 09003W 4450 06832 0407 -074 -224 104032 032 025 002 00
024600 2259N 09002W 4451 06831 0409 -074 -227 101030 031 024 002 00
024630 2301N 09001W 4450 06834 0409 -076 -232 105032 033 024 001 00
024700 2304N 09000W 4450 06834 0410 -079 -223 105032 032 023 001 00
024730 2307N 08959W 4453 06832 0411 -082 -222 107031 032 027 002 00
024800 2309N 08959W 4454 06830 0412 -081 -211 109033 034 029 009 00
024830 2312N 08958W 4451 06837 0413 -080 -208 109032 032 029 008 00
024900 2315N 08957W 4451 06837 0414 -077 -223 112033 034 027 001 00
024930 2317N 08956W 4451 06837 0414 -075 -213 112034 034 027 001 00
025000 2320N 08955W 4451 06838 0415 -075 -183 111035 036 024 002 00
025030 2323N 08955W 4449 06841 0416 -079 -195 110036 036 026 001 00
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#879 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:54 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
Steve wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a hurricane based on the way it's looking, maybe a cat 2 if it really strengthens fast


I think Cat 2 was upper end a few days ago. It's pretty remote now because it's expected to just keep moving. With landfall probably 30-36 hours away, I don't see Cat 2. 2% chance maybe? It probably will intensify until landfall, but I've been harping that since last week. System also reminds me of Isaac 2012 with a naked northern half (at the moment).


I've been thinking strong cat 1 - cat 2, BOC storms always seem to over-perform in recent years and this one has great conditions to work with. The current blowup of convection tells me it's already on it's way.


Yeah. I definitely think it's going to make a run. And unless something crazy happens, we could see low 980s and maybe even mid 970s. I just don't think it has enough time to get to a 2.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#880 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:54 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 090254
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 41 20170809
024400 1918N 09240W 6969 03159 0085 +080 -017 343025 027 030 004 00
024430 1916N 09241W 6969 03158 0097 +071 -021 336023 026 029 007 00
024500 1914N 09241W 6964 03166 0092 +075 -023 335024 027 028 014 00
024530 1914N 09241W 6964 03166 0082 +084 -025 332023 024 028 006 00
024600 1910N 09242W 6966 03164 0077 +090 -026 333024 025 028 003 00
024630 1909N 09242W 6966 03165 0075 +091 -026 331026 026 028 002 00
024700 1907N 09243W 6967 03164 0074 +091 -024 327027 027 027 000 00
024730 1905N 09243W 6961 03171 0072 +091 -017 323028 028 023 002 03
024800 1904N 09241W 6969 03163 0073 +090 -007 321026 028 /// /// 03
024830 1905N 09240W 6969 03163 0073 +091 -000 323024 025 /// /// 03
024900 1907N 09239W 6965 03166 0069 +094 +004 323022 023 027 001 00
024930 1908N 09238W 6967 03163 0072 +090 +008 325021 022 027 002 00
025000 1909N 09236W 6967 03161 0069 +091 +010 324020 021 028 002 00
025030 1910N 09235W 6967 03161 0073 +086 +011 319021 022 029 004 00
025100 1912N 09234W 6966 03160 0076 +084 +011 321022 022 031 008 00
025130 1913N 09233W 6969 03158 0081 +080 +009 325019 022 029 009 00
025200 1914N 09231W 6965 03161 0068 +089 +006 329021 022 030 003 00
025230 1915N 09230W 6967 03159 0061 +094 +003 322022 023 028 003 00
025300 1916N 09229W 6967 03158 0074 +085 +001 311027 028 028 013 00
025330 1918N 09228W 6964 03164 0081 +081 +001 312026 029 034 006 00
$$
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