ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

12Z GFS says nothing to look at move on - insists no development.

I'm starting to buy into the GFS on 99L more as the Euro and ensembles have backed off considerably.

[Siker]

UKMET develops this briefly again:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.8N 70.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2017 96 28.8N 70.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 14.08.2017 108 30.0N 71.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 14.08.2017 120 31.4N 71.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 15.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING

[gatorcane]

UKMET develops this briefly again:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.8N 70.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2017 96 28.8N 70.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 14.08.2017 108 30.0N 71.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 14.08.2017 120 31.4N 71.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 15.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING

where can I find these text outputs?

[Siker]

UKMET develops this briefly again:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.8N 70.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2017 96 28.8N 70.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 14.08.2017 108 30.0N 71.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 14.08.2017 120 31.4N 71.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 15.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING

where can I find these text outputs?

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

Available at exactly 12:20 EDT am and pm.

[TheStormExpert]

If 99L doesn't develop I say they should retire that Invest number.

[gatorcane]

UKMET develops this briefly again:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.8N 70.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2017 96 28.8N 70.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 14.08.2017 108 30.0N 71.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 14.08.2017 120 31.4N 71.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 15.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING

where can I find these text outputs?

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

Available at exactly 12:20 EDT am and pm.

I would like to bookmark the link so I can see 00Z and 12Z runs. Does that wtnt82.egrr..txt file keep updating or is there some bookmark that will show 00Z and 12Z runs? What is the difference between:

wtnt80.egrr..txt 09-Aug-2017 16:18 2.5K
wtnt82.egrr..txt 09-Aug-2017 16:19 2.8K

[Siker]

where can I find these text outputs?

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

Available at exactly 12:20 EDT am and pm.

I would like to bookmark the link so I can see 00Z and 12Z runs. Does that wtnt82.egrr..txt file keep updating or is there some bookmark that will show 00Z and 12Z runs? What is the difference between:

wtnt80.egrr..txt 09-Aug-2017 16:18 2.5K
wtnt82.egrr..txt 09-Aug-2017 16:19 2.8K

I haven't tried to find links that are only 00z or 12z; this one will just overwrite the previous run at 12:20.

[gatorcane]

Thanks Siker. Back to 99L...

NAVGEM shows no development either. Could we see a face palm for the ECMWF on this one? Maybe it is something about this area of the Atlantic it has problems with like we saw with Hermine when it was an invest in a similar area (missing model input data perhaps?)

[Frank2]

IMO the NHC will write-off 99L by this evening if not sooner - really not enough left of it to meet the criteria...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[HURRICANELONNY]

Why year after year people talk about model runs before they're named. To me it's a waste of typing. They flip flop and never come close. Only time I look at model runs is after a wave has developed. Just my 2 cents.

[NDG]

IMO the NHC will write-off 99L by this evening if not sooner - really not enough left of it to meet the criteria...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

As long as the Euro keeps support for development they are not going to drop it, unless today's 12z run drops it.

[NDG]

Why the Euro keeps developing it (per last night's 0z run) and the GFS keeps on not developing it is because they have a difference on their solution on the involvement of the ULL to north of it.
The Euro is persistent in which the ULL will start moving westward fairly fast with an UL ridge building close on top of 99L this weekend while the GFS keeps the ULL almost on top of it all along.

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT TWO up to 10%-50%

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of
low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands has continued to increase slightly in organization
since yesterday. While development should be slow to occur due
to unfavorable environmental conditions, the environment is forecast
to improve by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over
the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[jlauderdal]

2 PM EDT TWO up to 10%-50%

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of
low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands has continued to increase slightly in organization
since yesterday. While development should be slow to occur due
to unfavorable environmental conditions, the environment is forecast
to improve by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over
the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

we know which model they prefer for today

[jlauderdal]

Why year after year people talk about model runs before they're named. To me it's a waste of typing. They flip flop and never come close. Only time I look at model runs is after a wave has developed. Just my 2 cents.

givves uss gud practise aat tieping..

[cycloneye]

WU discussion of 99L.

https://www.wunderground.com/news/atlan ... t=Zhg7ONZA

 https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/895343948406833153

[OuterBanker]

Just stepped in for a quick check. Looks like convergence is occurring now. Interesting to say the least. Can this be the system that could? I was ready to write this off days ago. Yet it constantly is trying. I do feel confident now that it won't be a US problem. If anything does develop if will turn well before the US mainland. IMHO

[NDG]

Through 72 hrs 12z Euro not much development with it.

[NDG]

Zoomed in loop of 99L's vorticity.

[ronjon]

Quite the vigorous low level circulation from the SAT pic - if it had persistent convection, would be classified a TD.