ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1101 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:37 pm

very well defined.. and very small..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1102 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:37 pm

NDG wrote:Zoomed in loop of 99L's vorticity.

http://i.imgur.com/NpqeVCq.gif

That's a beautiful swirl.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1103 Postby Dave C » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:58 pm

Interesting as that little blow up of convection occurred the vortex was pulled up nnw.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1104 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:47 pm

Really nothing different from the 00z run, weak short-lived development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1105 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:05 pm

This reminds me of hermine, when models basically dropped development only to pick it back up again, plus, if this was starting to become unlikely to develop, the NHC would not raise their chances
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1106 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:22 pm

weathaguyry wrote:This reminds me of hermine, when models basically dropped development only to pick it back up again, plus, if this was starting to become unlikely to develop, the NHC would not raise their chances


With Hermine the GFS and Euro took rotated between showing development and no development. Think the situation for 99L is a bit different.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1107 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:26 pm

EPS support continues to drop at 12z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1108 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:This reminds me of hermine, when models basically dropped development only to pick it back up again, plus, if this was starting to become unlikely to develop, the NHC would not raise their chances


With Hermine the GFS and Euro took rotated between showing development and no development. Think the situation for 99L is a bit different.


The GFS went on a phantom spree with Hermine in the fantasy range, which is the same with 99L, and the other models are now starting to pick up on this, and I recall with Hermine that the GFS and the Euro kept it very weak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1109 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:38 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Why year after year people talk about model runs before they're named. To me it's a waste of typing. They flip flop and never come close. Only time I look at model runs is after a wave has developed. Just my 2 cents. :roll:


We are weather enthusiasts. We talk about the models here. You are not forced to join us with the discussion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1110 Postby Steve H. » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:43 pm

Convection is firing over the vortex now near 17.7 N/56.6 W....should be interesting to watch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1111 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:05 pm

PRetty safe to say its a well defined circ. just small at the moment. convection has been maintaining for 24 hours now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1112 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:14 pm

chances probably going to 20 percent at 8pm.. then Stewart in the morning will Name it,, lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1113 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:chances probably going to 20 percent at 8pm.. then Stewart in the morning will Name it,, lol


Looks like it could be a depression the next day or 2 looking at current organization
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1114 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:31 pm

Dave C wrote:Interesting as that little blow up of convection occurred the vortex was pulled up nnw.

Probably the perspective of the shot.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1115 Postby syfr » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:26 pm

That is an awesome satellite loop.

99 bears watching.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1116 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:50 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1117 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:55 pm

NDG wrote:Image


One could argue that this could be upgraded fairly soon based on how well the LLC is with the convection becoming more sustaining.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1118 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:02 pm

99L is FINALLY beginning to get itself together. It won"t be very long for this to be labeled a TD or TS. Structure has improved significantly since earlier today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1119 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:13 pm

northjaxpro wrote:99L is FINALLY beginning to get itself together. It won"t be very long for this to be labeled a TD or TS. Structure has improved significantly since earlier today.


Gonna need recon or an ASCAT pass for the NHC to bite.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1120 Postby bghowie » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:22 pm

What direction is this heading? West? West/nw?
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