ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

The Rammb page is listing this as Hurricane Franklin
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL072017

Yep, 18Z best track was updated as 65 kt/984 mb. Many people don't see it as official until it's in an advisory, but the best track points are what is maintained, updated, and put into HURDAT at the end of the season, as well as what all the stats such as ACE, PDI, and Tropical Storm Days are based from.

07L FRANKLIN 170809 1800 20.1N 94.4W ATL 65 984

[ColdMiser123]

...FRANKLIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON...

4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 9
Location: 20.1°N 94.9°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[ColdMiser123]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 092041
TCDAT2

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations from earlier today indicated
that Franklin was very close to hurricane strength. Since the time
of the last mission, the system has become better organized, with a
faint eye occasionally making an appearance on visible satellite
images. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65
kt and this value will be used for the advisory intensity, making
Franklin the first hurricane of the season. There is some northerly
shear evident over the system and with several arc clouds evident
over the outer circulation's northwest quadrant, perhaps some dry
air is nearby. These environmental conditions are not expected to
be detrimental enough, however, to prevent at least some additional
strengthening before landfall tonight. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin a few hours
from now to check the strength of the cyclone.

The hurricane continues to move westward, with the initial motion
estimated to be 270/10. There are essentially no changes to the
track forecast or reasoning. The flow on the southern side of a
mid-level high pressure area near the Texas coast should continue
to steer Franklin towards, and across, the southwest Gulf coast of
Mexico. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical
track model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.1N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 19.8N 96.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 19.3N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

I am impressed and when I am impressed that's a very bad thing for anyone about to be hit by the storm that makes me impressed. The cloud pattern is amazing and it wouldn't surprise me if this attempted to become a major like Karl did in 2010.

Only time and land will stop the strengthening of this cane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF308 in the air enroute to Hurricane Franklin.

[SunnyThoughts]

Very curious to see what recon finds when it gets there for the next mission. Looks to be strengthening..maybe 80 or 85mph before landfall. Well wishes to all in the path.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092121
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 03 20170809
211030 3002N 08917W 5946 04525 //// +012 //// 240008 011 /// /// 05
211100 3001N 08919W 5802 04726 //// -003 //// 245012 014 /// /// 05
211130 2959N 08920W 5654 04945 //// -008 //// 248013 014 /// /// 05
211200 2958N 08921W 5507 05161 //// -014 //// 237013 013 /// /// 05
211230 2957N 08922W 5415 05291 0309 -025 //// 238013 013 /// /// 05
211300 2955N 08923W 5338 05402 0303 -031 //// 253011 012 /// /// 05
211330 2954N 08925W 5250 05535 0319 -046 //// 238013 015 /// /// 05
211400 2953N 08926W 5156 05672 0319 -051 //// 240015 016 /// /// 05
211430 2952N 08927W 5050 05818 0317 -056 //// 230015 016 /// /// 05
211500 2950N 08928W 4987 05913 0320 -063 //// 233014 015 /// /// 05
211530 2949N 08930W 4909 06046 0340 -067 //// 248014 015 /// /// 05
211600 2947N 08930W 4857 06128 0348 -070 //// 265012 015 /// /// 05
211630 2946N 08931W 4778 06314 0368 -079 //// 269016 017 /// /// 05
211700 2944N 08932W 4730 06359 0375 -078 //// 272013 016 /// /// 05
211730 2943N 08933W 4669 06466 0390 -086 //// 276014 016 /// /// 05
211800 2941N 08934W 4636 06522 0386 -080 //// 293012 013 064 003 05
211830 2939N 08935W 4589 06595 0385 -088 //// 307012 012 064 003 05
211900 2938N 08936W 4531 06697 0401 -095 //// 313011 012 /// /// 05
211930 2936N 08937W 4501 06741 0399 -099 //// 329011 012 047 001 05
212000 2934N 08938W 4465 06801 0401 -103 //// 342012 013 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092130
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 04 20170809
212030 2932N 08940W 4410 06902 0407 -108 //// 354009 011 /// /// 05
212100 2931N 08941W 4356 06967 0394 -119 //// 358006 009 /// /// 05
212130 2929N 08942W 4304 07082 0421 -129 //// 353005 006 /// /// 05
212200 2927N 08943W 4262 07150 0413 -132 //// 335005 006 /// /// 05
212230 2925N 08944W 4209 07249 0421 -136 -142 333006 006 /// /// 05
212300 2924N 08945W 4181 07310 0437 -138 -162 333006 007 /// /// 03
212330 2922N 08946W 4150 07362 0443 -140 -186 338008 009 /// /// 03
212400 2920N 08947W 4115 07419 0436 -143 -199 339009 010 061 004 03
212430 2918N 08948W 4090 07481 0451 -150 -202 340010 010 061 004 03
212500 2917N 08949W 4050 07555 0461 -157 -203 327007 009 032 000 03
212530 2915N 08950W 4019 07619 0468 -160 -210 325007 008 028 000 00
212600 2913N 08951W 3984 07684 0472 -164 -221 330007 007 028 000 03
212630 2913N 08951W 3984 07684 0473 -168 -230 329008 008 027 000 03
212700 2909N 08953W 3937 07772 0473 -170 -237 335007 008 027 000 00
212730 2908N 08954W 3927 07786 0471 -170 -244 328007 007 026 000 00
212800 2906N 08956W 3922 07792 0470 -174 -250 332006 006 025 000 00
212830 2904N 08957W 3924 07785 0467 -172 -254 323006 006 023 000 00
212900 2902N 08958W 3925 07783 0464 -170 -264 317005 006 023 000 03
212930 2900N 08959W 3926 07778 0462 -167 -271 309005 005 022 000 00
213000 2857N 09000W 3926 07779 0462 -165 -266 290004 005 023 000 00
$$

[Alyono]

if this drops at all to the south, it's going to make a direct hit on Xalapa, a city a large as Veracruz

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092140
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 05 20170809
213030 2855N 09001W 3926 07777 0462 -165 -265 310005 005 023 000 00
213100 2853N 09002W 3926 07777 0461 -165 -270 309005 006 024 000 00
213130 2851N 09003W 3925 07780 0461 -166 -288 297004 004 025 000 03
213200 2848N 09004W 3926 07779 0462 -167 -295 286003 003 025 000 03
213230 2846N 09005W 3926 07784 0462 -164 -304 306006 007 023 000 00
213300 2844N 09006W 3925 07780 0460 -165 -326 285005 007 022 000 00
213330 2841N 09007W 3925 07778 0462 -165 -356 276004 005 024 000 00
213400 2839N 09008W 3926 07775 0462 -165 -402 273004 005 024 000 00
213430 2836N 09009W 3926 07778 0462 -165 -389 295005 005 023 000 00
213500 2834N 09010W 3926 07777 0462 -165 -311 306005 005 024 000 00
213530 2832N 09011W 3926 07777 0462 -165 -374 291005 006 025 000 00
213600 2829N 09012W 3926 07781 0463 -165 -360 292007 008 026 000 00
213630 2827N 09013W 3926 07775 0463 -164 -334 311005 006 025 000 03
213700 2825N 09014W 3926 07776 0463 -168 -293 317005 006 024 000 00
213730 2822N 09015W 3926 07779 0464 -169 -279 299005 006 025 000 00
213800 2820N 09017W 3925 07784 0465 -165 -336 301004 004 028 000 00
213830 2818N 09018W 3927 07779 0463 -165 -329 333003 003 029 000 03
213900 2816N 09020W 3926 07772 0461 -165 -349 341003 004 028 000 00
213930 2814N 09021W 3925 07777 0461 -165 -337 283004 005 025 000 00
214000 2812N 09023W 3927 07775 0462 -166 -366 266006 007 023 000 00
$$

[Siker]

New hot tower just shot up right over the eye. Wonder if it'll peek out again before we lose daylight.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092150
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 06 20170809
214030 2809N 09024W 3926 07780 0463 -168 -386 259008 009 023 000 00
214100 2807N 09025W 3926 07777 0463 -165 -380 264007 007 022 000 00
214130 2805N 09027W 3926 07782 0464 -172 -386 257009 010 023 000 00
214200 2803N 09028W 3927 07773 0464 -174 -350 261009 010 022 000 00
214230 2801N 09029W 3926 07785 0466 -170 -346 245009 009 022 000 00
214300 2759N 09031W 3926 07785 0466 -170 -398 235009 009 021 000 00
214330 2756N 09032W 3927 07778 0465 -170 -389 230009 010 021 001 00
214400 2754N 09033W 3925 07782 0465 -170 -380 233008 009 021 000 03
214430 2752N 09035W 3926 07782 0466 -170 -382 235009 010 020 001 00
214500 2750N 09036W 3927 07776 0466 -170 -378 233009 010 019 000 00
214530 2748N 09037W 3927 07780 0467 -168 -390 229008 009 019 000 00
214600 2746N 09039W 3926 07782 0466 -165 -398 233008 008 019 000 00
214630 2743N 09040W 3926 07782 0466 -165 -400 235007 008 020 000 00
214700 2741N 09041W 3926 07784 0465 -170 -388 246008 009 019 000 03
214730 2739N 09042W 3923 07779 0465 -166 -312 261007 009 019 000 00
214800 2737N 09044W 3925 07782 0465 -167 -273 264006 007 018 000 03
214830 2735N 09045W 3928 07772 0463 -174 -227 220004 005 017 000 00
214900 2732N 09046W 3925 07779 0464 -171 -267 232004 006 018 000 00
214930 2730N 09048W 3926 07780 0465 -168 -258 257005 006 020 000 00
215000 2728N 09049W 3925 07782 0464 -167 -321 238007 008 016 000 00
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092200
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 07 20170809
215030 2726N 09050W 3926 07781 0464 -173 -344 241006 008 018 000 00
215100 2724N 09052W 3926 07779 0464 -171 -351 245005 006 016 000 00
215130 2721N 09053W 3926 07777 0462 -170 -350 244006 006 015 000 00
215200 2721N 09053W 3926 07777 0464 -170 -377 244006 006 016 000 00
215230 2717N 09055W 3926 07780 0465 -170 -385 258006 007 017 000 00
215300 2715N 09057W 3926 07778 0464 -170 -363 254006 007 017 001 00
215330 2713N 09058W 3926 07781 0464 -171 -386 267007 008 016 001 00
215400 2711N 09059W 3926 07783 0465 -172 -395 268007 007 016 000 00
215430 2708N 09101W 3927 07776 0464 -174 -378 271007 007 016 000 00
215500 2706N 09102W 3925 07781 0464 -175 -386 259006 007 016 000 00
215530 2704N 09103W 3926 07775 0463 -175 -394 255006 006 017 000 00
215600 2702N 09104W 3926 07775 0465 -173 -386 262006 006 018 000 00
215630 2700N 09106W 3925 07784 0465 -173 -388 259005 006 017 000 00
215700 2657N 09107W 3926 07778 0464 -174 -394 266006 006 018 000 00
215730 2655N 09108W 3927 07779 0465 -170 -392 259005 005 018 000 00
215800 2653N 09110W 3926 07777 0464 -170 -393 260005 005 018 000 00
215830 2651N 09111W 3925 07779 0464 -175 -395 256006 006 017 000 00
215900 2649N 09112W 3926 07778 0464 -175 -392 263006 006 017 000 00
215930 2646N 09114W 3926 07780 0464 -175 -388 270006 006 017 000 00
220000 2644N 09115W 3925 07785 0465 -176 -400 276006 007 017 000 00
$$
;

[txwatcher91]

This is probably 80 or 85mph now with the recent trends in organization, and pressure is probably below 980 by now. Recon might find a cat 2 with sub 975 pressure.

[Siker]

Another shot of dry air wrapping into the core from southwest. Sharp cutoff in thunderstorm activity looks pretty cool on IR.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092210
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 08 20170809
220030 2642N 09116W 3926 07780 0464 -175 -390 288006 006 017 000 00
220100 2640N 09117W 3927 07777 0463 -175 -379 285005 006 017 000 00
220130 2638N 09119W 3926 07779 0465 -175 -386 269004 004 017 000 00
220200 2635N 09120W 3925 07783 0464 -175 -376 270004 004 017 000 03
220230 2633N 09121W 3926 07781 0464 -175 -375 273003 004 017 000 00
220300 2631N 09123W 3926 07776 0464 -175 -394 285003 003 018 000 00
220330 2629N 09124W 3926 07779 0464 -175 -388 281004 004 018 000 00
220400 2626N 09125W 3926 07779 0464 -175 -369 285004 004 018 000 03
220430 2624N 09127W 3926 07782 0465 -175 -377 293004 004 018 000 00
220500 2622N 09128W 3926 07784 0465 -175 -413 303004 005 017 000 00
220530 2620N 09129W 3926 07784 0466 -175 -388 311004 004 018 000 00
220600 2617N 09131W 3926 07782 0465 -173 -361 323004 004 018 000 00
220630 2615N 09132W 3926 07783 0464 -170 -398 342003 004 018 000 00
220700 2613N 09133W 3926 07778 0465 -170 -404 345003 003 018 000 00
220730 2611N 09134W 3926 07779 0465 -170 -383 013003 003 019 000 00
220800 2608N 09136W 3926 07783 0465 -170 -389 009003 003 019 000 00
220830 2606N 09137W 3926 07780 0465 -170 -396 010003 003 020 000 00
220900 2604N 09138W 3926 07780 0465 -170 -390 040003 003 019 000 00
220930 2602N 09140W 3926 07783 0465 -169 -389 047003 003 019 000 00
221000 2559N 09141W 3926 07779 0465 -165 -395 046004 004 020 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Impressive organization this afternoon, hope residents on its path are ready for it.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092220
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 09 20170809
221030 2557N 09142W 3926 07781 0465 -170 -395 047004 004 020 000 00
221100 2555N 09144W 3926 07781 0466 -168 -391 044004 005 020 000 00
221130 2552N 09145W 3926 07778 0465 -164 -392 042005 005 019 000 00
221200 2550N 09146W 3926 07778 0465 -165 -397 044005 005 019 000 00
221230 2548N 09148W 3926 07779 0466 -165 -395 044004 005 019 000 00
221300 2546N 09149W 3926 07787 0466 -170 -393 044005 005 019 000 00
221330 2544N 09150W 3926 07781 0466 -170 -390 040004 005 019 000 00
221400 2541N 09151W 3926 07776 0467 -170 -389 035005 006 018 000 00
221430 2539N 09153W 3926 07784 0467 -170 -389 046006 006 018 000 00
221500 2537N 09154W 3926 07784 0467 -170 -384 049006 006 019 000 00
221530 2534N 09155W 3926 07782 0466 -175 -385 057006 006 019 000 00
221600 2532N 09157W 3926 07783 0467 -175 -388 056006 007 018 000 00
221630 2530N 09158W 3926 07783 0465 -175 -387 056006 007 018 000 00
221700 2528N 09159W 3926 07778 0465 -173 -389 054007 007 018 000 00
221730 2525N 09201W 3926 07785 0466 -171 -391 051007 007 020 000 00
221800 2523N 09202W 3926 07780 0466 -174 -390 049008 009 021 000 00
221830 2521N 09203W 3926 07779 0466 -170 -389 049009 009 022 000 00
221900 2518N 09205W 3929 07778 0466 -170 -391 046010 010 021 000 00
221930 2516N 09206W 3926 07785 0466 -171 -387 044011 011 021 000 00
222000 2514N 09207W 3925 07782 0466 -171 -384 043012 012 021 000 00
$$

[NDG]

A definite dry slot on the NW quadrant.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092230
AF308 0607A FRANKLIN HDOB 10 20170809
222030 2511N 09209W 3925 07788 0466 -170 -384 041011 012 022 000 00
222100 2509N 09210W 3927 07781 0466 -170 -383 040011 011 022 001 00
222130 2507N 09211W 3926 07785 0467 -170 -384 041011 012 022 000 00
222200 2505N 09212W 3926 07780 0465 -170 -384 043011 012 021 000 00
222230 2502N 09214W 3926 07781 0464 -170 -387 051011 012 022 000 00
222300 2500N 09215W 3927 07774 0463 -170 -390 053012 012 021 001 00
222330 2457N 09216W 3926 07777 0464 -170 -390 054012 012 021 001 00
222400 2455N 09218W 3926 07775 0463 -170 -392 054012 012 022 000 00
222430 2453N 09219W 3925 07780 0463 -170 -392 052012 012 023 000 00
222500 2450N 09220W 3926 07780 0463 -170 -392 054012 012 022 000 00
222530 2448N 09222W 3926 07778 0463 -170 -392 055012 012 023 000 00
222600 2446N 09223W 3926 07778 0462 -169 -392 053013 013 021 001 00
222630 2443N 09224W 3926 07782 0462 -168 -391 053013 014 023 000 00
222700 2441N 09226W 3926 07781 0461 -167 -390 054014 014 022 000 00
222730 2439N 09227W 3927 07772 0462 -167 -389 057014 014 021 000 00
222800 2437N 09228W 3926 07777 0460 -165 -388 059015 016 021 001 00
222830 2434N 09230W 3927 07772 0459 -165 -390 061015 016 021 000 00
222900 2432N 09231W 3925 07774 0461 -165 -392 065015 015 020 001 00
222930 2429N 09232W 3925 07778 0459 -165 -391 067016 016 020 000 00
223000 2427N 09234W 3929 07768 0461 -165 -391 064016 016 020 001 00
$$
;