Trough along the SE US Coast

[boca]

It looks like the orientation is north/south and wouldn't it be more symmetrical if it were a chance for a depression .

[gatorcane]

Here is a nice vis loop for tracking this. Look at those outflow boundaries, pretty impressive:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... lor=yellow

[LarryWx]

It looks like the orientation is north/south and wouldn't it be more symmetrical if it were a chance for a depression .

Good point. The lack of organization is the main reason why the chance for a TD from this is VERY low.

[gatorcane]

Using the link I posted above and speeding up the loop (or the loop NDG posted), looks like a nice spin between Andros, Grand Bahama, and Abaco (at the latitude of Miami) but not much convection around it. Looks like convection is blowing up to the SE of it though.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS showing a more defined low-level feature than any of the previous runs so far:

[JtSmarts]

I hope this becomes Gert. I want 99L to become a strong Harvey on the way out to sea.

[northjaxpro]

Using the link I posted above and speeding up the loop (or the loop NDG posted), looks like a nice spin between Andros, Grand Bahama, and Abaco (at the latitude of Miami) but not much convection around it. Looks like convection is blowing up to the SE of it though.

Yes that is the area I have been tracking since early this morning as it moved from the SE Bahamas just slightly north of due west currently. That is the area (near Abaco currently)to watch for to see if a potential LLC can develop soon.

[NDG]

Just glad our east coast trough is once again back with a vengeance to promote a lot of shear over the gulf to tear this thing apart. Need a break from rain around the northern gulf coast. Have had a 60-70% chance everyday since Saturday and continues though this weekend. Very unsummer like for down here especially nearing mid August when it's usually our hottest and driest time

The upper level trough is forecasted not dig down that far south, an upper level ridge is forecasted to drape across the gulf coast over the next 7 days.

[NDG]

I think this deserves Invest status, vorticity is becoming more and more apparent this evening working itself down closer to the surface, IMO.

[LarryWx]

Just glad our east coast trough is once again back with a vengeance to promote a lot of shear over the gulf to tear this thing apart. Need a break from rain around the northern gulf coast. Have had a 60-70% chance everyday since Saturday and continues though this weekend. Very unsummer like for down here especially nearing mid August when it's usually our hottest and driest time

I don't think this is headed all the way into the GOM going by model consensus. Looking at the 850 vorticity on the 18Z GFS for example, once can clearly see it move NW to near Vero/Melbourne tomorrow afternoon and then turn NNW along the E coast of FL to near Daytona Fri PM followed by a N and then NNE turn just offshore NE FL/GA late Fri-Sat. It then moves NE just offshore SC before going onshore near the SC/NC border Sun AM. That track makes sense since it is rotating around the Bermuda high.

[NDG]

Shear almost non-existent over this area.

[northjaxpro]

I think this deserves Invest status, vorticity is becoming more and more apparent this evening working itself down closer to the surface, IMO.

It s getting close NDG for invest status.
LLC is working itself down to near surface near Abaco.

[northjaxpro]

I think this deserves Invest status, vorticity is becoming more and more apparent this evening working itself down closer to the surface, IMO.

It s getting close NDG for invest status.
LLC is working itself down to near surface near Abaco.

[northjaxpro]

Great satellite images showing the well defined VORT. If the organization trend continues, this won't take much for this to be a TD or even a TS. Shear is rather conducive at this time in the area it is in currently for this disturbance to spin up in the short term.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just glad our east coast trough is once again back with a vengeance to promote a lot of shear over the gulf to tear this thing apart. Need a break from rain around the northern gulf coast. Have had a 60-70% chance everyday since Saturday and continues though this weekend. Very unsummer like for down here especially nearing mid August when it's usually our hottest and driest time

The upper level trough is forecasted not dig down that far south, an upper level ridge is forecasted to drape across the gulf coast over the next 7 days.

Not saying it will be dropping this far south into the gulf like last time but strong and deep enough to promote a lot of shear in the gulf once again. From this mornings forecast discussion out of BR...


.LONG TERM...
A robust but open tropical wave over the eastern Bahamas will
continue to move west into the gulf and south of the area over the
weekend. This feature is moving into a very hostile area as it
moves over the gulf. Most of the sh/ts associated will be sheared
and pulled north into the current east coast trough. What is left
of moisture associated with the wave should still be capable of
keeping the daily barrage of sh/ts developing locally over the
weekend. Afterwards, some dry air looks to intrude possibly as
early as Tuesday or Wednesday and lasts through Thursday of next
week and may be able to pull precip chances back a bit. But the
troughiness that is currently plaguing the area will be back by
the end of next week.

[NDG]

Just glad our east coast trough is once again back with a vengeance to promote a lot of shear over the gulf to tear this thing apart. Need a break from rain around the northern gulf coast. Have had a 60-70% chance everyday since Saturday and continues though this weekend. Very unsummer like for down here especially nearing mid August when it's usually our hottest and driest time

The upper level trough is forecasted not dig down that far south, an upper level ridge is forecasted to drape across the gulf coast over the next 7 days.

Not saying it will be dropping this far south into the gulf like last time but strong and deep enough to promote a lot of shear in the gulf once again. From this mornings forecast discussion out of BR...


.LONG TERM...
A robust but open tropical wave over the eastern Bahamas will
continue to move west into the gulf and south of the area over the
weekend. This feature is moving into a very hostile area as it
moves over the gulf. Most of the sh/ts associated will be sheared
and pulled north into the current east coast trough. What is left
of moisture associated with the wave should still be capable of
keeping the daily barrage of sh/ts developing locally over the
weekend. Afterwards, some dry air looks to intrude possibly as
early as Tuesday or Wednesday and lasts through Thursday of next
week and may be able to pull precip chances back a bit. But the
troughiness that is currently plaguing the area will be back by
the end of next week.

I still do not see the shear that they are talking about, very clearly the models show a narrow UL high across the gulf coast through the week.

[northjaxpro]

Yes NDG is right. The ridge axis is forecast to build back in over the Florida peninsula through this upcoming weekend. The area NWS WFOs are following the EURO, which shows that this disturbance is forecast to move into the Eastern GOM by Monday. The ridge axis is what will steer whatever becomes of this system into Florida and into the Gulf.

I am definitely on board with the EURO with this system as the EURO, although not developing it into a strong system, it always showed this as a decent. trackable vorticity, even going back to last Sunday. It also had this tracking through where it is now and into Florida this weekend.

GFS dissipated this feature approaching Florida as late as last evening on its 96 hour run.

[LarryWx]

i was going to say that if this is going to become a TD near FL, it will likely do so within 24-48 hours per model track timing consensus.

[northjaxpro]

i was going to say that if this is going to become a TD near FL, it will likely do so within 24-48 hours per model track timing consensus.

Yeah Larry I would say 12-24 hours at the level of organization this disturbance is showing this evening. Good conditions right now over the Bahamas. Virtually little or.no shear.

Again sorry for the error everyone. I got a bit ahead of myself obviously lol..

[tolakram]

This one looks on MIMIC TPW as well, better than 99L.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5