2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[chaser1]

Pretty strong signal from the global models that the EPac will come alive soon, with hints of another July-esque TC break. Based on the Epac and Atlantic relationship where if one basin is active the other tends to be inactive, aside from potential Gert, I would say Atlantic activity will cease until late August/early September if the EPac outbreak verifies.

In theory I'd agree with the hypothesis suggesting that an active E. Pacific would typically mean the W. Atlantic shutting down. I also believe that in active Atlantic years, Pacific activity would have little influence on Atlantic MDR development especially the closer one gets to the core of the season. IMO, we'll see the "I" storm here in the Atlantic by Sept. 1st.

[gatorcane]

The Atlantic continues to warm as we head into the peak months of the Atlantic season:

[TheStormExpert]

That cool patch that has been in the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic is slowly disappearing. Wouldn't that affect things?

[SFLcane]

ok so based on NOAA's update not much sleep around here if there even close to right.

[Alyono]

second half of the season will have to see a major uptick in activity for the active season projections to come true. The ACE level is what still has me second guessing myself. 1998 and 2010 all had high ace, despite only 4-5 storms by the end of August

[SoupBone]

second half of the season will have to see a major uptick in activity for the active season projections to come true. The ACE level is what still has me second guessing myself. 1998 and 2010 all had high ace, despite only 4-5 storms by the end of August

But as we all know, it just takes one long churner out there to spike the ACE.

[WeatherEmperor]

second half of the season will have to see a major uptick in activity for the active season projections to come true. The ACE level is what still has me second guessing myself. 1998 and 2010 all had high ace, despite only 4-5 storms by the end of August

Numbers wise...would 2007 be the best analog for this year? Despite featuring 2 category 5 hurricanes and 15 named storms overall which is above average for named storms, it produced 74 units of ACE which is below the long term average. Could something similar happen this year?


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[otowntiger]

second half of the season will have to see a major uptick in activity for the active season projections to come true. The ACE level is what still has me second guessing myself. 1998 and 2010 all had high ace, despite only 4-5 storms by the end of August

I beginning to think along the same lines. The models are showing nada for what looks like the next couple weeks and it seems with each update there is less and less activity, for whatever reason. I think August for sure is going to be below average the way its looking now. August is very close to being half over already.

[Steve]

second half of the season will have to see a major uptick in activity for the active season projections to come true. The ACE level is what still has me second guessing myself. 1998 and 2010 all had high ace, despite only 4-5 storms by the end of August

I beginning to think along the same lines. The models are showing nada for what looks like the next couple weeks and it seems with each update there is less and less activity, for whatever reason. I think August for sure is going to be below average the way its looking now. August is very close to being half over already.

I really don't know. We'll have one hurricane and possibly two before the 15th. We're also only on Day 9 of August so about 29% of the way through the month. Think how poorly most of the globals have done anticipating genesis - alternating between nothing and something. They've generally been poor most of the year for that (globals anyway). We'll have to watch, but it wouldn't surprise me to see 4 named storms in August this year. I'd be willing to bet there's a spin-up here or there that won't be accounted for much like 99L is kind of not being accounted for now or the way Emily sort of came out of the pattern. We may see a few 1-2 week breaks, but just based on the last several years which have mostly been backloaded even when they have had different characteristics, I think we will probably see at least 7 named storms after August 31st. That would put us in line to be a pretty balanced season but with the stronger storms more September/October. It's impossible to know, but mid teens seems pretty attainable since we're on #6 already.

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 8279937025

Looks like Ventrice was correct on his bold prediction as we now have Hurricane Franklin in the time frame he specified.


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[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/887306168279937025

Looks like Ventrice was correct on his bold prediction as we now have Hurricane Franklin in the time frame he specified.


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 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/895386772418555904

[SFLcane]

second half of the season will have to see a major uptick in activity for the active season projections to come true. The ACE level is what still has me second guessing myself. 1998 and 2010 all had high ace, despite only 4-5 storms by the end of August

note that 60% on there update so it can really go either way. But as you stated things will really have to pop soon.

[Hammy]

With Franklin and the short-lived MDR storms I'm starting to see a year similar to 1990 at the moment except with less active subtropics.

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 1654299649

Could the ATL get busy by the end of August?


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[Alyono]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/887306168279937025

Looks like Ventrice was correct on his bold prediction as we now have Hurricane Franklin in the time frame he specified.


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He called for multiple TCs immediately following the Kelvin Wave. We have had a very short lived hurricane

[Alyono]

looks like EC is going for quality over quantity for the rest of the year

slightly below average number of storms and canes, but slightly above average ACE

[tolakram]

How much should we pay attention to relative humidity in the tropics. The GFS continues to show what appears to be well below normal levels for the next 2 weeks, but is this an important indicator?

[Hurricaneman]

How much should we pay attention to relative humidity in the tropics. The GFS continues to show what appears to be well below normal levels for the next 2 weeks, but is this an important indicator?

What I have noticed is that long range is more in the Euro wheelhouse while mid range and closer seem to be in the GFS wheelhouse so if I'm going to go with a long range model it would be the Euro

[Alyono]

How much should we pay attention to relative humidity in the tropics. The GFS continues to show what appears to be well below normal levels for the next 2 weeks, but is this an important indicator?

low RH definitely is not a positive. Probably explains why we do not have anything forming in the GFS

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/895600731654299649

Could the ATL get busy by the end of August?


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Hasn't the JMA been almost as bad as the CFS?