![Image](http://i.imgur.com/RLUg3vQ.gif)
WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249
NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 102224Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH WEAKER
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AMSU DATA WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS), WITH THE RJTD ESTIMATE AT
25 KTS. CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
FURTHER SUPPORT THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSOLIDATION, WHILE GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING ONLY A WAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, AND THE REPORTED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM A NEARBY BUOY IS 29.6 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD 14W TRACKING NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, AFTER WHICH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST, RESULTING IN RECURVATURE AROUND THE STR.
A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AND VERY LIMITED GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HIGHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. AFTER TAU
48, INCREASING VWS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START A
WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 14W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BE ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU
96. HOWEVER, STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL REMAIN. DUE TO THE LIMITED
GUIDANCE AND POOR INITIALIZATION BY GLOBAL MODELS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. //
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