Texas Summer 2017

[South Texas Storms]

Here's all you need to know about the next week or so in Texas weather:

The large upper ridge is expected to anchor over TX through the next
10 days.
-- NWSFO Austin/San Antonio, 8/10 afternoon forecast discussion

Ugh...back to weather depression. Fall can't get here soon enough.

[aggiecutter]

The pattern returns to what it has been most of the summer. Wet and relatively mild north of I-20 and east of a Paris to Sulphur Springs line:

[weatherdude1108]

I was hoping that rain we had on Monday was a pattern shift. Should have known better than to get my hopes up in early to mid-August.

Time to go back to my cave

[Brent]

DFW hits 100 for the 8th time

When is fall? I just knew it was too early for summer to be over...

GFS again says a lot more 100's to come...

[Cpv17]

I remember just a week ago some on here were saying the Euro weeklies suggested the cool/wet pattern would persist into September. What happened to that?

[Brent]

I remember just a week ago some on here were saying the Euro weeklies suggested the cool/wet pattern would persist into September. What happened to that?

I think Franklin is a lot of the blame but I could be wrong(notice how the ridge has strengthened since it went into Mexico), it was discussed earlier in the thread

This weekend/Monday could be the last good chance of rain for awhile

[Ntxw]

I remember just a week ago some on here were saying the Euro weeklies suggested the cool/wet pattern would persist into September. What happened to that?

I think Franklin is a lot of the blame but I could be wrong(notice how the ridge has strengthened since it went into Mexico), it was discussed earlier in the thread

This weekend/Monday could be the last good chance of rain for awhile

Yes. Franklin, and potential 99L are a symptom of the larger scale pattern shift. They also amplify the effects somewhat. Don and Lee are well remembered but something that sticks out to me is Bill in 2015. After biblical rains, Bill came in June gave us a good shot of rain, possibly reshuffled the upper pattern...then it was hot and dry all the way till October when the EPAC lit up that year.

[Brent]

I remember just a week ago some on here were saying the Euro weeklies suggested the cool/wet pattern would persist into September. What happened to that?

I think Franklin is a lot of the blame but I could be wrong(notice how the ridge has strengthened since it went into Mexico), it was discussed earlier in the thread

This weekend/Monday could be the last good chance of rain for awhile

Yes. Franklin, and potential 99L are a symptom of the larger scale pattern shift. They also amplify the effects somewhat. Don and Lee are well remembered but something that sticks out to me is Bill in 2015. After biblical rains, Bill came in June gave us a good shot of rain, possibly reshuffled the upper pattern...then it was hot and dry all the way till October when the EPAC lit up that year.

that's right! 2015 the wettest year ever had that record dry streak in late summer lol

[weatherguy425]

I think Franklin is a lot of the blame but I could be wrong(notice how the ridge has strengthened since it went into Mexico), it was discussed earlier in the thread

This weekend/Monday could be the last good chance of rain for awhile

Yes. Franklin, and potential 99L are a symptom of the larger scale pattern shift. They also amplify the effects somewhat. Don and Lee are well remembered but something that sticks out to me is Bill in 2015. After biblical rains, Bill came in June gave us a good shot of rain, possibly reshuffled the upper pattern...then it was hot and dry all the way till October when the EPAC lit up that year.

that's right! 2015 the wettest year ever had that record dry streak in late summer lol

Bill - a tropical storm - did not reshuffle the pattern. Ridging arrived before Franklin. That was well documented and partially why it remained well south. There just isn't a huge connection between this tropical activity and ongoing pattern.

NAO is currently negative. East coast troughing, thus ridging pumps up across the mid-south and southwest... not directly tropical related.

[Ntxw]

Yes. Franklin, and potential 99L are a symptom of the larger scale pattern shift. They also amplify the effects somewhat. Don and Lee are well remembered but something that sticks out to me is Bill in 2015. After biblical rains, Bill came in June gave us a good shot of rain, possibly reshuffled the upper pattern...then it was hot and dry all the way till October when the EPAC lit up that year.

that's right! 2015 the wettest year ever had that record dry streak in late summer lol

Bill - a tropical storm - did not reshuffle the pattern. Ridging arrived before Franklin. That was well documented and partially why it remained well south. There just isn't a huge connection between this tropical activity and ongoing pattern.

NAO is currently negative. East coast troughing, thus ridging pumps up across the mid-south and southwest... not directly tropical related.

You are misinterpreting what was said. It is not the tropical systems that is the pattern change, they are symptom of the change and likely enhance it. The ridge is not large scale, the rains and weakness is still passing through Okla/ARK/La. But it is Texas that the ridge is extending and sitting over for the next week or so.

Regardless, Atlantic tropical systems have had limited benefits to us in a long time, and more often than not have been a precursor to warmth and dry weather to follow their passing. That is hard to argue. We are better off with Caribbean open waves streaming in with a SE ridge.

The NAO has been negative since the last week of July..it's likely not the culprit for the change.

[Ntxw]

DFW hits 100 for the 8th time

When is fall? I just knew it was too early for summer to be over...

GFS again says a lot more 100's to come...

I was hoping for no 100s this month but there that is out the window . Summer and heat gets old fast, fall can't come soon enough! DFW is still -1.9F for the month, lets hope that continues to at least break the streak of above normal months.

[Cpv17]

that's right! 2015 the wettest year ever had that record dry streak in late summer lol

Bill - a tropical storm - did not reshuffle the pattern. Ridging arrived before Franklin. That was well documented and partially why it remained well south. There just isn't a huge connection between this tropical activity and ongoing pattern.

NAO is currently negative. East coast troughing, thus ridging pumps up across the mid-south and southwest... not directly tropical related.

You are misinterpreting what was said. It is not the tropical systems that is the pattern change, they are symptom of the change and likely enhance it. The ridge is not large scale, the rains and weakness is still passing through Okla/ARK/La. But it is Texas that the ridge is extending and sitting over for the next week or so.

Regardless, Atlantic tropical systems have had limited benefits to us in a long time, and more often than not have been a precursor to warmth and dry weather to follow their passing. That is hard to argue. We are better off with Caribbean open waves streaming in with a SE ridge.

I personally believe it is very difficult to get a tropical system into Texas. Out of all the places that border the Gulf it seems like Texas gets the least amount of activity. If it's not a high pressure over us then it's usually an east coast trough that picks it up and sends it east of us. It also seems like there is more often a ridge over TX than it is the SE. More times than not it seems like it's raining from Louisiana all the way into the Carolinas and Texas remains hot and dry. Whenever there is actually a ridge over the SE (which seems rare to me) then we might actually have to worry about the tropics because the door would then be open for us. If there's no waves coming then at least the sea breeze could become active.

[Ntxw]

I personally believe it is very difficult to get a tropical system into Texas. Out of all the places that border the Gulf it seems like Texas gets the least amount of activity. If it's not a high pressure over us then it's usually an east coast trough that picks it up and sends it east of us. It also seems like there is more often a ridge over TX than it is the SE. More times than not it seems like it's raining from Louisiana all the way into the Carolinas and Texas remains hot and dry. Whenever there is actually a ridge over the SE (which seems rare to me) then we might actually have to worry about the tropics because the door would then be open for us. If there's no waves coming then at least the sea breeze could become active.

Yeah. the jet stream and weather patterns travel from west to east. The Gulf and Atlantic is located to our south/southeast, the troughs that picks them up takes them on an N or E trajectory most of the time, you want to be downstream of tropical systems to get the remnants. It's just the nature of the geography. This is more often tied to the Eastern Pacific for Texas because west/southwest of us beyond Mexico is the EPAC. The EPAC can provide rain to us like what Gulf systems do to places like the southeast even if systems don't hit them directly. Only when flow is slow and ridging present to our east does Atlantic systems landfall in Texas. Our landfall season ends before everyone else.

[weatherguy425]

that's right! 2015 the wettest year ever had that record dry streak in late summer lol

Bill - a tropical storm - did not reshuffle the pattern. Ridging arrived before Franklin. That was well documented and partially why it remained well south. There just isn't a huge connection between this tropical activity and ongoing pattern.

NAO is currently negative. East coast troughing, thus ridging pumps up across the mid-south and southwest... not directly tropical related.

You are misinterpreting what was said. It is not the tropical systems that is the pattern change, they are symptom of the change and likely enhance it. The ridge is not large scale, the rains and weakness is still passing through Okla/ARK/La. But it is Texas that the ridge is extending and sitting over for the next week or so.

Regardless, Atlantic tropical systems have had limited benefits to us in a long time, and more often than not have been a precursor to warmth and dry weather to follow their passing. That is hard to argue. We are better off with Caribbean open waves streaming in with a SE ridge.

The NAO has been negative since the last week of July..it's likely not the culprit for the change.

And first trough we benefited from. Upcoming setup isn't as favorable; a la heat as trough sets up east. Considering, we've been in such a 'tropical system drought' it's not surprising that we haven't seen impacts. I'm only arguing that these examples contribute *minorly to ridging; Bill, Franklin.

Lee in 2011? Now that's subsidence.

As for amount of Texas tropical impact... all one needs to do is look at history.

[Cpv17]

I personally believe it is very difficult to get a tropical system into Texas. Out of all the places that border the Gulf it seems like Texas gets the least amount of activity. If it's not a high pressure over us then it's usually an east coast trough that picks it up and sends it east of us. It also seems like there is more often a ridge over TX than it is the SE. More times than not it seems like it's raining from Louisiana all the way into the Carolinas and Texas remains hot and dry. Whenever there is actually a ridge over the SE (which seems rare to me) then we might actually have to worry about the tropics because the door would then be open for us. If there's no waves coming then at least the sea breeze could become active.

Yeah. the jet stream and weather patterns travel from west to east. The Gulf and Atlantic is located to our south/southeast, the troughs that picks them up takes them on an N or E trajectory most of the time, you want to be downstream of tropical systems to get the remnants. It's just the nature of the geography. This is more often tied to the Eastern Pacific for Texas because west/southwest of us beyond Mexico is the EPAC. The EPAC can provide rain to us like what Gulf systems do to places like the southeast even if systems don't hit them directly. Only when flow is slow and ridging present to our east does Atlantic systems landfall in Texas. Our landfall season ends before everyone else.

How was the pattern during the summer of 2007?

[Brent]

I personally believe it is very difficult to get a tropical system into Texas. Out of all the places that border the Gulf it seems like Texas gets the least amount of activity. If it's not a high pressure over us then it's usually an east coast trough that picks it up and sends it east of us. It also seems like there is more often a ridge over TX than it is the SE. More times than not it seems like it's raining from Louisiana all the way into the Carolinas and Texas remains hot and dry. Whenever there is actually a ridge over the SE (which seems rare to me) then we might actually have to worry about the tropics because the door would then be open for us. If there's no waves coming then at least the sea breeze could become active.

Yeah. the jet stream and weather patterns travel from west to east. The Gulf and Atlantic is located to our south/southeast, the troughs that picks them up takes them on an N or E trajectory most of the time, you want to be downstream of tropical systems to get the remnants. It's just the nature of the geography. This is more often tied to the Eastern Pacific for Texas because west/southwest of us beyond Mexico is the EPAC. The EPAC can provide rain to us like what Gulf systems do to places like the southeast even if systems don't hit them directly. Only when flow is slow and ridging present to our east does Atlantic systems landfall in Texas. Our landfall season ends before everyone else.

How was the pattern during the summer of 2007?

2007 is one of the wettest and coolest summers on record here in Dallas. The heat ridge was east of here then(I lived in Alabama and it was the worst summer on record there)

[Cpv17]

Yeah. the jet stream and weather patterns travel from west to east. The Gulf and Atlantic is located to our south/southeast, the troughs that picks them up takes them on an N or E trajectory most of the time, you want to be downstream of tropical systems to get the remnants. It's just the nature of the geography. This is more often tied to the Eastern Pacific for Texas because west/southwest of us beyond Mexico is the EPAC. The EPAC can provide rain to us like what Gulf systems do to places like the southeast even if systems don't hit them directly. Only when flow is slow and ridging present to our east does Atlantic systems landfall in Texas. Our landfall season ends before everyone else.

How was the pattern during the summer of 2007?

2007 is one of the wettest and coolest summers on record here in Dallas. The heat ridge was east of here then(I lived in Alabama and it was the worst summer on record there)

What caused the ridge that year to be over the SE?

[Brent]

How was the pattern during the summer of 2007?

2007 is one of the wettest and coolest summers on record here in Dallas. The heat ridge was east of here then(I lived in Alabama and it was the worst summer on record there)

What caused the ridge that year to be over the SE?

Someone else can maybe better speak on this who was here then but looking at Dallas weather most of the summer resembled how this summer started with a lot of rain so probably a NW flow type pattern here?

Don't even bother with the 0z GFS... there's so many 100's on the DFW meteogram I quit counting

[Ntxw]

6z gfs echoes that theme. Not only 100s but lows hardly even gets below 80...maybe late July wasn't the tail of summer after all. No matter how you slice it as the reason. It could get hot, and stay hot for awhile. I certainly hope it changes tune soon.

[Ntxw]

But to note during this period those of you along the Red River, Sherman-Denison/Paris/Texarkana etc will likely be clipped by several rounds of rain. Oklahoma is under flood watches and not feeling this localized heat ridge. The closer you are to the Red River the more likely you are to see rain and will stay below normal while folks just to the south who misses it will bake. I'm hoping the outflows from these rains up north might make it further south and generate some storms that models miss.

As mentioned earlier the ridge is not large scale limited to our state and adjacent MX, the zonal flow and weakness is still in the middle of the country, except areas in Texas along and south of I-20