2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chaser1]

Tea leaves people.... TEA LEAVES. It blows my mind how people who are generally far more knowledable about meteorology and tropical cyclones than the average guy, make statements like "models arn't showing much so I guess we'll have to wait"????? 5-14 day global models are NOT depicting what will absolutely happen. Models that pick up development.... are picking up on dynamic conditions seemingly being favorable. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're not (and most often, the CMC is definatly not lol). Yet, even in spite of others posting past year or even recent past week examples to the contrary some continue to make observations about zero development for a 7 or more day global forecast then boldly state "guess we won't see anything for a while". Really??

Some need to really translate what they see on any one long range model, as if someone just whispered an observation in their ear. When is it more than just a whisper or gentle nudge? When there's been consistant run after run forecasts showing "something" or "nothing", and at say 48-96 hours out with your own eyes begin verifying with what started out as whispers but have legitimately increased to loud warning bells because the 2-4 day range forecasts show reasonable reason for what is or has been predicted. Long range modeling are hints, not gospel

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF is going with some weak development again on the wave to exit with development starting day 5.

Day 6 below heading west to WNW over the Central Atlantic MDR:

[Alyono]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro ends with all quiet in the Atlantic basin while having multiple Epac hurricanes. No sign of the "switch" turning on yet no matter how you slice it folks.

[WeatherEmperor]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

The NAO has been negative for a few weeks now and if the forecast is to be believed, it will stay that way through the end of August. Do you think this is why the Euro shows little ridging? What are your thoughts on this?




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Alyono]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

The NAO has been negative for a few weeks now and if the forecast is to be believed, it will stay that way through the end of August. Do you think this is why the Euro shows little ridging? What are your thoughts on this?




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

not seeing anything in the next couple of weeks that could threaten the USA unless it stays very far to the south like Matthew did, or if it forms close to the coast

[gatorcane]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

The NAO has been negative for a few weeks now and if the forecast is to be believed, it will stay that way through the end of August. Do you think this is why the Euro shows little ridging? What are your thoughts on this?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201708 ... 3cd8e6.gif


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

not seeing anything in the next couple of weeks that could threaten the USA unless it stays very far to the south like Matthew did, or if it forms close to the coast

That is if the models are correct going out two weeks which I really doubt. The models were originally showing 99L heading west through the Straits of Florida (GFS) or through the Caribbean south of Cuba (ECMWF) with deep 500MB ridging parked over the Western Atlantic/Bahamas in their long-range projections. That didn't verify at all as we can see.

[Alyono]

The NAO has been negative for a few weeks now and if the forecast is to be believed, it will stay that way through the end of August. Do you think this is why the Euro shows little ridging? What are your thoughts on this?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201708 ... 3cd8e6.gif


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

not seeing anything in the next couple of weeks that could threaten the USA unless it stays very far to the south like Matthew did, or if it forms close to the coast

That is if the models are correct going out two weeks which I really doubt. The models were originally showing 99L heading west through the Straits of Florida (GFS) or through the Caribbean south of Cuba (ECMWF) with deep 500MB ridging parked over the Western Atlantic/Bahamas in their long-range projections. That didn't verify at all as we can see.

often, when the pattern favors misses in August, misses will be favored through the season, and vice versa. See 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2004, even 2005 favored the miss (same as 1995 except for systems forming in the Bahamas, just like 1995), 2008, 2010, etc

[Hammy]

GFS indicating things will probably get going in the next week or two--it's starting to show hurricanes over land in Africa, and when those start showing up at the end of the run it usually means the pattern is trending more favorable for MDR development.

[ColdMiser123]

Remarkable how there is suddenly a strong signal on the GEFS for Day 10. Previous runs were no where near this robust. Have to look at future runs for consistency. EPS have also been hinting at this wave potentially being one to watch.

[Steve]

GFS indicating things will probably get going in the next week or two--it's starting to show hurricanes over land in Africa, and when those start showing up at the end of the run it usually means the pattern is trending more favorable for MDR development.

There is a lot in the pipeline, but concentrated areas are spread out. There will be a few days lag between the next 3 or 4 waves coming across. http://satellite.imd.gov.in/insat.htm

[otowntiger]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

That sounds like good news- either the storms that deverlop are going to be weak or the troughs will steer everything away or both. Actually both would be good.

[Steve]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

That sounds like good news- either the storms that deverlop are going to be weak or the troughs will steer everything away or both. Actually both would be good.

It seems good. But we also saw similar conditions in parts of '04 and '05. The troughiness will relax, and this is the scariest potential season in a long, long time. I'm not one to hype ****. And of course I could be wrong. But I don't think the SE trough pattern is going to hold. Again, we have seen this before. Eventually reinforcing shots of high pressure will start coming off the mid-Atlantic. Then the country is open. Weatherbell maintains the major hurricane hit on the US drought ends this year, and I think Bastardi reiterated that yesterday or the day before. This morning they reiterated 50% of their forecasted ACE (ranging something to 115) would be in their close in zone. We've had a few points of ACE in close already. But that would leave like 50ish to go close in to the USA. They could be low if there are any 4's or 5's that get close. I don't know if they are right or not. But we saw summer pattern changes in 05 and 08 which were some of the last big US years. If troughs continue to come down through mid September without the pattern in the SEUS going to high pressure, I will have been wrong. I don't think so though.

[Alyono]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

That sounds like good news- either the storms that deverlop are going to be weak or the troughs will steer everything away or both. Actually both would be good.

not necessarily. 1995 had Erin and Opal develop in close

[MetroMike]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

That sounds like good news- either the storms that deverlop are going to be weak or the troughs will steer everything away or both. Actually both would be good.

So you are wishing for more of the same? Meager systems than last a day or two or endless invest days. I had enough of that in past years.

[WeatherEmperor]

Some images from the 18z GFS. Take it with a grain of salt but perhaps its a sign of a more active Atlantic?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

Looks to be the same system the Euro is showing.

GFS has had it for a couple of runs now although with a much weaker vort.

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs ensembles are now showing development in the next two weeks,some with multiple systems.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Maybe the models are hinting at the Atlantic finally waking up. We shall see. The EPS show anything of note?

[SFLcane]

magical trap door is open near US. I don't buy one thing the GFS suggest take with huge grain of salt model has done horrific this yr. Bet that tc it's showing in the Bahamas is gone next 00z run. Few weak struggling tropical storms thus far and a short lived hurricane. With potent mjo moving in we shall see if things really get going.