2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[WeatherEmperor]

0z GFS coming in even stronger


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[Kingarabian]

Maybe the models are hinting at the Atlantic finally waking up. We shall see. The EPS show anything of note?

Nothing serious on the EPS. Makes sense considering the OP Euro doesn't do much with it.

[Hurricaneman]

It even has a cat2 landfall in OBX between 336 and 348 hrs, could this end up being another phantom hurricane just like 99L we'll see

[AubreyStorm]

Again from Africa!

[AxaltaRacing24]

The resolution declines sharply around 226 hrs. It was a major hurricane at landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm betting OTS next run, or drop in development.

BTW, how stout is that ridge at that time frame?

[otowntiger]

EC has no ridging past 60W, however. The system makes an immediate right turn

This is why we should not pay attention to the Bermuda high position in June and July. Every year we have strong ridging those months. That does not affect how much ridging we have in peak season, as the current global models clearly indicate

That sounds like good news- either the storms that deverlop are going to be weak or the troughs will steer everything away or both. Actually both would be good.

So you are wishing for more of the same? Meager systems than last a day or two or endless invest days. I had enough of that in past years.

uhh yes. Hurricanes can be costly and deadly. But nobody wishing one way or the other will any affect on what really happens.

[abajan]

It's still there in the 06Z GFS:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well well when have we seen this play out before. Guess just like the old days, if the GFS just keeps spitting them out eventually it will get one right.

[RL3AO]

This thread can be broken into two modes.

The GFS shows nothing -> "Season cancel it's 2013 again. The models should be showing storms in the long range"

The GFS shows something -> "The GFS sucks. Creating fake storms again. Season cancel"

[Ivanhater]

This thread can be broken into two modes.

The GFS shows nothing -> "Season cancel it's 2013 again. The models should be showing storms in the long range"

The GFS shows something -> "The GFS sucks. Creating fake storms again. Season cancel"

Perfect summary...

[Alyono]

the developing Atlantic storm may produce enough ACE to render 2013 comparisons void

[RL3AO]

the developing Atlantic storm may produce enough ACE to render 2013 comparisons void

But with how many "permanent east coast trof" posts?

[Bhuggs]

Is the GFS development on the same wave as the CMC and Euro?

[Alyono]

the developing Atlantic storm may produce enough ACE to render 2013 comparisons void

But with how many "permanent east coast trof" posts?

trough won't mean no US impacts though. All it takes is the trough to intensify and it can end up drawing a storm into the coast. Or, one can develop far enough west to slip underneath. Even in 1995, two storms developed far enough west to hit Florida (Erin and Jerry)

[RL3AO]

I'll remain skeptical about the GFS. It looks very similar to the model runs with 99L when it was in the eastern Atlantic. The CP scheme creates ITCZ deep convection/vorticity which consolidates into a TC and takes off into a major hurricane. It seems to be a recurring type of model output in the MDR during days 3 to 7.

[WeatherEmperor]

the developing Atlantic storm may produce enough ACE to render 2013 comparisons void

But with how many "permanent east coast trof" posts?

They need to back it up with evidence otherwise its just crazy talk. I am posting the NAO forecast map to show some clues what we can expect with troffing the next week or two. I perfectly understand the NAO is only 1 piece of the puzzle...but generally when the NAO is negative (which it is now) there tends to be more east coast troffing. The forecast map I posted shows it remaining negative for the next 2 weeks.




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[boca]

Where do you find the GFS ensembles that show possible development of a system? (When it shows the orange color)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

the developing Atlantic storm may produce enough ACE to render 2013 comparisons void

But with how many "permanent east coast trof" posts?

Probably about the same amount of "now the lid is about to come off" posts.

[AtlanticWind]

Where do you find the GFS ensembles that show possible development of a system? (When it shows the orange color)

You're can run the ensembles from here
http://tc.met.psu.edu/