ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like a strong MCV has developed with updraft clearing out cirrus and creating an anticyclone.
More towers firing whose helicity could drive down the mid-level vort to the surface.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017081218, , BEST, 0, 235N, 695W, 25, 1012, LO

[MGC]

Unless there is a threat to land I don't see any reason to risk the lives of the flight crew. 99L is getting close to being a TC. I'm betting on a upgrade to TD by end of Sunday.....MGC

[floridasun78]

it be cool see hurr out at sea wont hurt land hope ships go round it

[Nimbus]

it be cool see hurr out at sea wont hurt land hope ships go round it

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atvs.html

Cold front in Tennessee.

[NDG]

All day visible loop of 99L, to me it looks like the surface low is getting closer to the MLC.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[AutoPenalti]

All day visible loop of 99L, to me it looks like the surface low is getting closer to the MLC.

You can now see that it's yanking itself to the north.

[MississippiWx]

I find it hard to believe that there isn't at least a small closed circulation underneath the convection. Odd that we have no recon.

[Hammy]

Cloud movement is west to east in the circled area--this is slowly but surely closing off.

[GCANE]

Towers becoming more intense

[MississippiWx]

Cloud movement is west to east in the circled area--this is slowly but surely closing off.

I've been seeing that since this morning.

[pgoss11]

It's definitely getting "that look". I hope it makes it to hurricane, and shouldn't cause any harm going out to sea. I've invested a lot of time the last 8 days watching this invest from day one. Be nice to see it get named.

[GCANE]

Cloud movement is west to east in the circled area--this is slowly but surely closing off.

Speed of those west winds picked up quickly in the last hour.
Could be a TD already.

[GCANE]

Outflow, assisted by the ULL to the east, improving by the minute.

[SouthDadeFish]

If it looks like a TC and quacks like a TC.... it's a TC

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 0605995008


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO: 80% / 80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands
have become better organized during the past several hours, and
visible satellite images suggest a low-level circulation may be
forming. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form tonight or Sunday while the system moves northwestward. The
low is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward away from the
United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

Reminds me of the remnants of TD Four-E. Models refused to budge despite intermittent re-development but ended up getting the larger picture correct and nothing serious materialized. I wonder if they will eventually get 99L right.

[Aric Dunn]

Lol its had a llc for days. But as long as some useful data gets recorded..