Texas Summer 2017

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gboudx
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1141 Postby gboudx » Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:55 am

bubba hotep wrote:Texas Tech WRF looks pretty good for DFW. Storms along the boundary this afternoon and then a decent looking MCS moving through over night with storms lingering into Sunday.


Last Saturday when rain chances were looking good, I turned off my sprinkler system. Saturday nights are one of the 2 scheduled weekly days. We got no rain here in Rockwall. Should I dare Mother Nature again and turn them off today? :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1142 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:14 am

gboudx wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Texas Tech WRF looks pretty good for DFW. Storms along the boundary this afternoon and then a decent looking MCS moving through over night with storms lingering into Sunday.


Last Saturday when rain chances were looking good, I turned off my sprinkler system. Saturday nights are one of the 2 scheduled weekly days. We got no rain here in Rockwall. Should I dare Mother Nature again and turn them off today? :cheesy:


I vote turn them off :D. If it rains this afternoon, it will be sort of a sneak up event. It wasn't foreseen that far out.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1143 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:53 am

gboudx wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Texas Tech WRF looks pretty good for DFW. Storms along the boundary this afternoon and then a decent looking MCS moving through over night with storms lingering into Sunday.


Last Saturday when rain chances were looking good, I turned off my sprinkler system. Saturday nights are one of the 2 scheduled weekly days. We got no rain here in Rockwall. Should I dare Mother Nature again and turn them off today? :cheesy:


I did the same and didn't water the garden.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1144 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:10 am

Portastorm wrote:Yesterday, Camp Mabry reached 100 degrees for the 32nd time in 2017. Over the last 10 years, we have a wide spectrum of triple digit heat days although the overall trend over the last 20 years is rising. Here's a look over the last 10 years:

2007 – 3
2008 – 50
2009 – 68
2010 – 22
2011 – 90
2012 – 35
2013 – 42
2014 – 21
2015 – 24
2016 – 24
2017 - 32 (so far)


We'll easily surpass 2012, maybe 2013 also. Nowhere near 2011 (TG!!). 2007 was awesome!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1145 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:08 pm

Storms already starting to fire across DFW
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1146 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:50 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1147 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:57 pm

Luck and chance, lets see who gets the jackpot and who gets cheated.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1148 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:00 pm

In my best Clint Eastwood voice: "Do you feel lucky?"

:D
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1149 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:03 pm

Image

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0674
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OK...NORTHERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 121945Z - 130100Z

SUMMARY...EXPANDING SLOW MOVING CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING IN VICINITY OF RED RIVER.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 6.9UM MID-LEVEL WV CHANNEL
DEPICTS MAIN SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SW
CORNER OF OK WHILE FURTHER SOUTH A MORE FOCUSED MESOSCALE MCV CAN
BE SEEN WELL IN DYX RADAR LIFTING NORTH AS WELL. BOTH ARE
PROVIDING EXCELLENT DPVA AND COMBINED WITH PERIPHERAL RIGHT
ENTRANCE DYNAMICS FROM E-W JET ACROSS OK/KS INTO THE OZARKS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL ASCENT. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER NORTH OVER S CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH CLEARING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER HAS FURTHER STRENGTHENED FRONTAL ZONE WHILE ALLOWING SFC T
TO REACH THE 90S AND TDS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. THIS SUPPORTS
SBCAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG. AS SUCH GOES-16 VIS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS N TX FROM SPS TO JDD WITH GREATER
COVERGE/CLUSTERING FURTHER NW TOWARD THE MCV. SOME MILD MID-LEVEL
DRYING NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME IN THE SHORT-TERM THOUGH CELLS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT WITH TIME...WITH RATES NEAR 2"/HR.
ADDITIONALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM CELLS ARE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER
THE AREA THAT HAS REMAINED MOST DRY OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO PER
AHPS ANOMALIES AND FFG VALUES...PRESENTING SOME TIME BEFORE FF
CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED.

GIVEN INFLUENCE OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...IT APPEARS HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING A BIT TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION PARTICULARLY
THE EARLIER ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...THE 17Z ESRL HRRRV3 APPEARS TO
BE SOLVING THE NEAR TERM THE BEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH
CELLS WILL CROSS THE RIVER AND POTENTIAL ELEVATE SLIGHTLY GIVEN
THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...INCREASED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
VEERING STEERING FLOW (TOWARD THE EAST) SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAIN OVER WETTER SOILS A PRESENT INCREASED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 00Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
GIVEN THE 17Z HRRRV3 SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 3-4" IN THE
NEXT 6HRS FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY.

FURTHER EAST ALONG THE LINE CURRENTLY IN NE TX... WITH WEAKER
STEERING FLOW CELLS MAY REMAIN A BIT MORE ISOLATED BUT ALSO HAVE
LIMITED STEERING FLOW/NEAR ZERO PROPAGATION VECTORS. AS SUCH
THERE WILL BE A GREATER TENDENCY TO HAVE A STRONG
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT COUPLING WITH 2-3" TOTALS BEFORE PROPAGATING ON
THE OUTFLOW TOWARD REMAINING INSTABILITY...THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
PRESENT AN ISSUE NEARER THE RIVER WHERE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE MOST
SATURATED (IN VIC OF LAMAR/FANNIN/RED RIVER/DELTA COUNTIES) WHERE
RAIN TOTALS OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS ARE OVER 600% OF NORMAL...AND AS
SUCH FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH CELLS THAT FORM HERE
AS WELL.

GALLINA
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1150 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:14 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
307 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017


.SHORT TERM...
Potential severe weather and flash flooding continue to be the
highlights of the forecast through the next 12-18 hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across North
Texas this afternoon in vicinity of a stalled front near HWY 380
with aid from an upstream shortwave. Temperatures have climbed
into the mid and upper 90s south of the front, which when combined
with dewpoints in the low 70s, have yielded strong surface-based
instability of 2000-3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is also on the
increase as a mid-level speed max associated with the approaching
shortwave becomes positioned along the Red River. The 40 kts of
shear in place will be supportive of supercell storm structures,
and much of the ongoing activity has already displayed weakly
rotating updrafts. These initial storms pose a severe downburst
potential given DCAPE values over 1200 J/kg. If a more robust
supercell can get going immediately along the front, it would also
have the potential for a brief tornado spin-up given the locally
enhanced helicity in vicinity of the boundary. Even though lapse
rates aren't incredibly steep, a rotating storm would also have
the ability to produce some severe hail. Later this evening, some
of these more isolated storms should grow upscale and move across
North Texas in the form of a complex or two. A damaging straight-
line wind threat will exist if this scenario comes to fruition.

Tonight and through the overnight hours, the concern will shift
from severe weather to the flash flooding potential. It appears
as through the front will remain in North Texas overnight rather
than lifting north toward Oklahoma.
The front will serve as a
focus for training thunderstorms that will be continuously
generated via ascent from both the strong upstream shortwave in
conjunction with low-level convergence and warm advection at the
nose of an intensifying low-level jet. A Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect for our far northeastern areas, but depending on
trends, we may need to expand it southwestward toward the DFW area
if a southward trend in the front's position continues. Wouldn't
be surprised to see an isolated rainfall total of 5+ inches
somewhere in northeast Texas by Sunday morning.
All guidance has
been persistently targeting areas from Gainesville to Paris to
Greenville for the epicenter of heaviest rainfall where the flash
flood potential is the highest tonight. If outflow was to force
the front farther south, then the heavy rain axis would follow.

There is still uncertainty regarding how far south activity may
reach overnight or early Sunday morning. It's possible that
eventually an outflow boundary could move southward into Central
Texas toward the Waco area leading to some scattered showers or
thunderstorms early Sunday morning. Severe weather or flash
flooding is not expected in Central Texas through this time frame
as all activity is expected to be on a downward trend.

-Stalley
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1151 Postby gboudx » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:29 pm

I didn't turn off the sprinklers. It has a rain sensor, so if Mother Nature wants them off, she'll fill the sensor. About to pour here.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1152 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:40 pm

Pouring in Wylie
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1153 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:46 pm

SCP is now running 4 - 5 across the DFW area, plenty of shear and CAPE to produce some svr cells.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1154 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:01 pm

This 2nd cell has a lot lightning with it!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1155 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:08 pm

Looks like training of storms may become an issue on the east side of dallas
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1156 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:18 pm

These cells are very efficient rain producers, notice the smaller/finer rain drops. Street is a river here after that last cell.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1157 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:00 pm

So far east of I-35E have been the winners, the airport hasn't seen much to show for it
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1158 Postby gboudx » Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:21 pm

Mother Nature turned my sprinklers off. :D We were in church during the storm. Looks like it was torrential.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1159 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:51 pm

New cells starting to pop as the main energy is still upstream of DFW
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1160 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:24 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:In my best Clint Eastwood voice: "Do you feel lucky?"

:D



Uh uh. I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself. But being this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?
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