Potential System South of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 91L)

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-rgb.html

Looks like some spin near 10 north ,strong convection also

[AtlanticWind]

A lot of convection tonight

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Not sure this is exactly what the GFS is showing development of though.

[AJC3]

A lot of convection tonight

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Not sure this is exactly what the GFS is showing development of though.

It seems as though the GFS system does emanate from that large area of disturbed weather to the south of the CVI. Its solution, which may or may not be dubious early on, as there is at least some support of 'something' out in that area, shows this area taking another of couple days to congeal into some semblance of a weak/broad circulation. There currently appears to be another wave of some sort exiting Africa which may act to help this mess along. I will probably direct the posts about the forecast MDR system in the Global Models thread toward this one.

[AtlanticWind]

A lot of convection tonight

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Not sure this is exactly what the GFS is showing development of though.

It seems as though the GFS system does emanate from that large area of disturbed weather to the south of the CVI. Its solution, which may or may not be dubious early on, as there is at least some support of 'something' out in that area, shows this area taking another of couple days to congeal into some semblance of a weak/broad circulation. There currently appears to be another wave of some sort exiting Africa which may act to help this mess along. I will probably direct the posts about the forecast MDR system in the Global Models thread toward this one.

Thanks,wasn't real sure what the GFS was doing.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post the 18z Navgem? For some reason tropicaltidbits.com is stuck at 06z.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[AtlanticWind]

Can somebody post the 18z Navgem? For some reason tropicaltidbits.com is stuck at 06z.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I haven't found the 18z ,but the 12z is on the FSUSite

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Siker]

Can somebody post the 18z Navgem? For some reason tropicaltidbits.com is stuck at 06z.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I haven't found the 18z ,but the 12z is on the FSUSite

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The actual Navy site is usually the most timely and most detailed with the NAVGEM:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/in ... bal#global

[jason1912]

[AJC3]

A lot of convection tonight

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Not sure this is exactly what the GFS is showing development of though.

It seems as though the GFS system does emanate from that large area of disturbed weather to the south of the CVI. Its solution, which may or may not be dubious early on, as there is at least some support of 'something' out in that area, shows this area taking another of couple days to congeal into some semblance of a weak/broad circulation. There currently appears to be another wave of some sort exiting Africa which may act to help this mess along. I will probably direct the posts about the forecast MDR system in the Global Models thread toward this one.

To piggyback on what I was saying earlier, here is my take on this piece of energy coming off of Africa, using both the GFS and ECM H85 vort progs. You can see a similar evolution of the rollup of a low level vort center over the east Atlantic over the next 2+ days as a piece of energy exiting into the Atlantic interacts with the monsoon trough already in that area. Check back in 2+ days to see of this comes to fruition...

[gatorcane]

As bad as the GFS has been, I actually think this one has some decent development chances - not as strong as the GFS has it though. I understand why the NHC is not mentioning it yet but this time the GFS has other models like the NAVGEM on board which has been very conservative on genesis deep in the Eastern Atlantic MDR so far. The monsoon trough looks quite vigorous and I don't see a SAL surge hitting the area this time.

[gatorcane]

NHC clearly being cautious with the GFS after its debacle with 99l in a similar location. Looks at how strong the signal is here from the 18Z GEFS by day 5 and they don't mention it in the 8pm outlook:

[Hurricaneman]

NHC clearly being cautious with the GFS after its debacle with 99l in a similar location. Looks at how strong the signal is here from the 18Z GEFS by day 5 and they don't mention it in the 8pm outlook:

After 99L it's hard for the NHC to trust it but could be lemoned sometime tomorrow

[Hammy]

I'm interested in seeing the verification report at the end of the season given how poorly the model is performing.

[emeraldislenc]

When do y'all think it will be mentioned by the NHC

[StormTracker]

LOL! Gatorcane, I think I remember you saying those same exact words about 99L, but I'm with you on this one. As I said last night in the 99L discussion, I think it just paved the way other CV systems.

[SFLcane]

Not much ridging near the Southeast so this if it develops is more then likely to recurve but still long ways out.

[abajan]

When do y'all think it will be mentioned by the NHC

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the very next one (at 2 AM).

[floridasun78]

look area 30west 10 north good spin that area one pick up by models one you all talking about south of cape islands

[cycloneye]

00z GFS again develops.

[cycloneye]

But again has two competing vorts to start.