ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

A long time to watch this disturbance, but with climatology in its favor I would keep an eye on this INVEST. Looks good on MIMIC with a bit of spin already and NRL Imagery suggests Convection to the N and SW of a potential organizing broad circulation. SAL well to the East with the front running disturbance with little if any dust associated with 91L. Watch this one closely...

[Kazmit]

I would love to see a long tracking powerful Cape Verde hurricane out of this (although it does look like it could be a land threat). Still, it's over 10 days out.

[Frank2]

It came off several degrees higher than 99 - probably a recurving system as most are at that latitude:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, this one has my attention. Much larger envelope and we all know these larger waves/storms usually are able to survive any dry air intrusions much better than smaller systems. Long range models are hinting at pattern flip down the road with ridging east and trough out west, this one could make the run further south and west down the road than 99L!

[RL3AO]

It came off several degrees higher than 99 - probably a recurving system as most are at that latitude:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Also depends how quickly it develops and if this trend towards stronger ridging next week continues. Either way, the northeast islands look to be in play.

[Dean4Storms]

It came off several degrees higher than 99 - probably a recurving system as most are at that latitude:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Not with the Atlantic Ridge forecast by ECM EPS to expand in 96hrs.....should keep a due west trajectory if not get turned a bit WSW.

[cycloneye]

I'm thinking this one is going to develop within a week. Probably not as fast as GFS shows but I think it'll be a long tracker.

Oh,not another long lasting Invest like 99L. But seriously,this one has climo,MJO,Kelvin Wave in it's favor to be a great ACE producer.

[RL3AO]

I'm thinking this one is going to develop within a week. Probably not as fast as GFS shows but I think it'll be a long tracker.

Oh,not another long lasting Invest like 99L. But seriously,this one has climo,MJO,Kelvin Wave in it's favor to be a great ACE producer.

TC outbreaks are rare in the Atlantic, but the potential is there for dare I say a hyperactive period.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the sal may not be a big problem down the road.

[abajan]

It came off several degrees higher than 99 - probably a recurving system as most are at that latitude:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Yes, but according to the last TWO, that's just part of 91L. It's forecast to eventually join with the area of convection to its west-southwest. The two areas are indicated in the following image:

[Hurricaneman]

I was looking for a possible analog for this system and one popped up

Fran 1996

Starting out in a similar position and has a very similar look at that point and the steering doesn't look too dissimilar so I will say this it will be an interesting week to 10 days ahead

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
With an active MJO transitioning over the Indian Ocean, & Kelvin wave passing the Atlantic this weekend, I'm all in on hurricane development

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/896780893276319744

[Alyono]

Looks like the sal may not be a big problem down the road.

will need another day to be sure, but there may be a surge coming off now. That would favor development of the leading feature

[cycloneye]

I was looking for a possible analog for this system and one popped up

Fran 1996

Starting out in a similar position and has a very similar look at that point and the steering doesn't look too dissimilar so I will say this it will be an interesting week to 10 days ahead

Anything is possible about a similar track but is very early to know for sure.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 10%-30%

An area of disturbed weather located to the southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. The wave is
forecast to merge with a broad area of low pressure located
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of
this system later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[jlauderdal]

2 PM TWO up to 10%-30%

An area of disturbed weather located to the southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. The wave is
forecast to merge with a broad area of low pressure located
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of
this system later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Prime time has arrived

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2017081318, , BEST, 0, 134N, 211W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

RL3AO So what happens now that some models develop this invest and others develop the area in front?

[MississippiWx]

Front runner becomes 92L.

12z Euro doesn't merge the two, so the TWO may not be correct.

[RL3AO]

RL3AO So what happens now that some models develop this invest and others develop the area in front?

Not sure. But the leading wave sure looks good. The Euro might be onto it.