2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[SoupBone]

It is VERY hard to get a "major" into the USA. Except for Puerto Rico, the USA is at a relatively high latitude. Storms at these latitudes usually start to become larger. So, you end up with very large cat 1s and 2s. They will have a major impact for sure. Puerto Rico is a very small target

I hate the term "major hurricane", because it makes storms like Ike, Isaac, Sandy (that's a separate issue), and Matthew as non-major hurricane landfalls (or near landfalls) which can imply a lack of "major" impacts.

Don't forget Gustav. He wrecked shop in Baton Rouge and surrounding areas.

[Hammy]

With the Euro having two systems, but staying fairly weak in the MDR, a (much less active) 2005-type setup seems like it's taking shape, with the western half of the Atlantic being far more favorable than the eastern half, or at least more favorable than east of about 50W.

[otowntiger]

It is VERY hard to get a "major" into the USA. Except for Puerto Rico, the USA is at a relatively high latitude. Storms at these latitudes usually start to become larger. So, you end up with very large cat 1s and 2s. They will have a major impact for sure. Puerto Rico is a very small target

I hate the term "major hurricane", because it makes storms like Ike, Isaac, Sandy (that's a separate issue), and Matthew as non-major hurricane landfalls (or near landfalls) which can imply a lack of "major" impacts.

Don't forget Gustav. He wrecked shop in Baton Rouge and surrounding areas.

. When I saw this list I immediately thought of Gustav. Being a BR native with relatives still there I paid close attention when he came ashore and I saw what kind of winds were clocked there- amazing for a cat 2 to pull those kinds of winds that far inland.

[RL3AO]

This wave near the Cape Verdes has climatology, less dry air, anomalous upper divergence associated with a very strong CCKW and MJO on its side. The next one should too. At least two long track hurricanes during the rest of August would not be surprising. If we don't, well maybe the "season cancel" people are onto something. (That was a joke...kinda)

[Alyono]

This wave near the Cape Verdes has climatology, less dry air, anomalous upper divergence associated with a very strong CCKW and MJO on its side. The next one should too. At least two long track hurricanes during the rest of August would not be surprising. If we don't, well maybe the "season cancel" people are onto something. (That was a joke...kinda)

this one has some potential. That's for sure. May take a while to organize, however, if it merges with the system near 35W

[Steve]

This wave near the Cape Verdes has climatology, less dry air, anomalous upper divergence associated with a very strong CCKW and MJO on its side. The next one should too. At least two long track hurricanes during the rest of August would not be surprising. If we don't, well maybe the "season cancel" people are onto something. (That was a joke...kinda)

Joking aside, the only real question is will we be up to the I or J storm by 9/1 (possibly even K). This August was likely to have 4-5 named storms. Emily formed at the end of July. But it lingered a bit into early August. We had Franklin. Gert is likely though I don't think it becomes a Hurricane. We'll get 1 or 2 more named systems easily. I still think we get 7 after 8/31/17. So I think my numbers of near an average season will be way low. I'm talking 15-16-17 named storms. That's very, very surprising to me based on the way things were looking in May. I guess you never know.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This wave near the Cape Verdes has climatology, less dry air, anomalous upper divergence associated with a very strong CCKW and MJO on its side. The next one should too. At least two long track hurricanes during the rest of August would not be surprising. If we don't, well maybe the "season cancel" people are onto something. (That was a joke...kinda)

Joking aside, the only real question is will we be up to the I or J storm by 9/1 (possibly even K). This August was likely to have 4-5 named storms. Emily formed at the end of July. But it lingered a bit into early August. We had Franklin. Gert is likely though I don't think it becomes a Hurricane. We'll get 1 or 2 more named systems easily. I still think we get 7 after 8/31/17. So I think my numbers of near an average season will be way low. I'm talking 15-16-17 named storms. That's very, very surprising to me based on the way things were looking in May. I guess you never know.

4 More storms and we would be almost on par with 2005. Which is why I wouldn't be surprised if the weatherbell prediction for a below average number of storms fails to take place. We could very well be at 15-20 named storms this season. The quality of these storms also seem to be improving week after week too. Interesting times ahead.

[Steve]

Yeah Ax. Idk. I thought 12 was reasonable if not on the high side. And though most of the first 5 were relatively week, they qualified. Alyono mentioned that the EC likes fewer but stronger storms. I think it's going to be a combination of what you suggested (mid-upper teens) and some strong systems for the second half of the season. Maybe 15/7/2-3 or 16/8/2-3?

[chaser1]

I think we'll see the G, H, I, & J storms before September 1st. I'm really thinking that 91 L and its sister might be about the most foretelling indications of how the season will play out. Why? Because I'm thinking we might see something along the lines of a David / Frederick ala 1979 set up possibly occurring. Forget about the net number of tropical storms and hurricanes in 1979, there were a lot of tropical depressions that year. In terms of numbers, this year has been somewhat busy though most storms relatively weak. I think the paths and intensities of the next couple of MDR developing systems may very well telegraph whether the balance of this season will largely be a continuation of a busy but relatively weak tropical Atlantic season that's largely dominated by close in developing systems with many others simply recurving out to sea OR the beginning of a pretty bad, busy, and memorable year. Could 91L become the David of 1979 as the first major hurricane of the year that potentially threatens the Lesser Antilles, or possibly just another one of many that form in the east-central Atlantic to eventually turn poleward and go quietly into the night?? I think the next five days are truly when the rubber meets the road and largely defines how the season will be characterized. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about my preseason guess of 18/11/4. If any part of my own guess is going to bust, I think 91L will begin to indicate that

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/896834828380909568




 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/896837464526139392




For the people who are saying this has been a slow season

[RL3AO]

For the people who are saying this has been a slow season

I think it's been a mixed season with seven named storms but ACE is still below average. On the other hand, storms like Bret and Don almost never form when and where they did.

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 1962256386


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

Well I'd say the Atlantic is coming alive and right around when we were the thinking - Aug 15th

[TheStormExpert]

I guess I spoke way too soon!

Those models are sure behaving differently than what we're used too this season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

With systems still struggling to develop in the MDR, and most of the Caribbean outside the area near the Yucatan. It is now common to see them develop in the central Atlantic, or the BOC. Should we consider them the new MDR areas? Seems the Atlantic no matter the pattern likes these areas the most. It has been a while since we seen a true Cape Verde season. Serious question here, and I am not trying to troll. Just want to know if it could change like that.

[tolakram]

Ask at the end of the season. In the meantime, you two have now spoken as expected, let's watch and wait, or enjoy how Gert is putting on a show as the next Hurricane.

Think back to 2005 and everyone watching MDR waves die or struggle until they got further west or north out of the MDR. Also keep in mind that an active season does not require any storms hitting the US. It may pay to look at 2005 and tick off the names of all the storms you might not be aware of. I was surprised myself at a few that never hit the US and whose names I did not recall.

In other words, let the season play out and then determine how active it was. If inactive then talk about why, what did the models miss, what did we miss. We are 10 days since you last asked a 'serious' question. It's August 14th, ok?

[Hammy]

With systems still struggling to develop in the MDR, and most of the Caribbean outside the area near the Yucatan. It is now common to see them develop in the central Atlantic, or the BOC. Should we consider them the new MDR areas? Seems the Atlantic no matter the pattern likes these areas the most. It has been a while since we seen a true Cape Verde season. Serious question here, and I am not trying to troll. Just want to know if it could change like that.

I pointed this out a few years now, I think because of a few excessively active seasons (in some cases the years that may have sparked interest) the MDR expectations are far too high--it's less common than many thing to see hurricanes and major hurricanes in the deep tropical Atlantic. Look at how seldom Puerto Rico is hit for instance. In fact in the last 22 years, only 6 years--1995, 96, 2000, 03-04, and 2010 were truly MDR-heavy seasons. Even 1999 had the bulk of the strongest activity north of 20, 2005 had only one short-lived hurricane in the MRD, and in 2008 Bertha was at almost 20 before reaching hurricane intensity and Ike was north of there.

[tarheelprogrammer]

With systems still struggling to develop in the MDR, and most of the Caribbean outside the area near the Yucatan. It is now common to see them develop in the central Atlantic, or the BOC. Should we consider them the new MDR areas? Seems the Atlantic no matter the pattern likes these areas the most. It has been a while since we seen a true Cape Verde season. Serious question here, and I am not trying to troll. Just want to know if it could change like that.

I pointed this out a few years now, I think because of a few excessively active seasons (in some cases the years that may have sparked interest) the MDR expectations are far too high--it's less common than many thing to see hurricanes and major hurricanes in the deep tropical Atlantic. Look at how seldom Puerto Rico is hit for instance. In fact in the last 22 years, only 6 years--1995, 96, 2000, 03-04, and 2010 were truly MDR-heavy seasons. Even 1999 had the bulk of the strongest activity north of 20, 2005 had only one short-lived hurricane in the MRD, and in 2008 Bertha was at almost 20 before reaching hurricane intensity and Ike was north of there.

Mark Sudduth has pointed out in his videos that the old MDR area near Africa to the Eastern Caribbean is where most storms get going this time of the year. At least in the past they did. However, the past 5 seasons or so that seems to be different. Many here have pointed that out. Odd that the subtopics and BOC seem to be where storms get going. It is puzzling to not only me, but some experts as well.

[Hammy]

With systems still struggling to develop in the MDR, and most of the Caribbean outside the area near the Yucatan. It is now common to see them develop in the central Atlantic, or the BOC. Should we consider them the new MDR areas? Seems the Atlantic no matter the pattern likes these areas the most. It has been a while since we seen a true Cape Verde season. Serious question here, and I am not trying to troll. Just want to know if it could change like that.

I pointed this out a few years now, I think because of a few excessively active seasons (in some cases the years that may have sparked interest) the MDR expectations are far too high--it's less common than many thing to see hurricanes and major hurricanes in the deep tropical Atlantic. Look at how seldom Puerto Rico is hit for instance. In fact in the last 22 years, only 6 years--1995, 96, 2000, 03-04, and 2010 were truly MDR-heavy seasons. Even 1999 had the bulk of the strongest activity north of 20, 2005 had only one short-lived hurricane in the MRD, and in 2008 Bertha was at almost 20 before reaching hurricane intensity and Ike was north of there.

Mark Sudduth has pointed out in his videos that the old MDR area near Africa to the Eastern Caribbean is where most storms get going this time of the year. At least in the past they did. However, the past 5 seasons or so that seems to be different. Many here have pointed that out. Odd that the subtopics and BOC seem to be where storms get going. It is puzzling to not only me, but some experts as well.

Statistically about half of storms form there--the rest form in the subtropics, Gulf, or Caribbean--the storm records show this clearly. And as far as storms forming this time of year, we're still in the first half of August and the last two decades or so have seen a shift towards both starting and ending later with the hurricane activity.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I pointed this out a few years now, I think because of a few excessively active seasons (in some cases the years that may have sparked interest) the MDR expectations are far too high--it's less common than many thing to see hurricanes and major hurricanes in the deep tropical Atlantic. Look at how seldom Puerto Rico is hit for instance. In fact in the last 22 years, only 6 years--1995, 96, 2000, 03-04, and 2010 were truly MDR-heavy seasons. Even 1999 had the bulk of the strongest activity north of 20, 2005 had only one short-lived hurricane in the MRD, and in 2008 Bertha was at almost 20 before reaching hurricane intensity and Ike was north of there.

Mark Sudduth has pointed out in his videos that the old MDR area near Africa to the Eastern Caribbean is where most storms get going this time of the year. At least in the past they did. However, the past 5 seasons or so that seems to be different. Many here have pointed that out. Odd that the subtopics and BOC seem to be where storms get going. It is puzzling to not only me, but some experts as well.

Statistically about half of storms form there--the rest form in the subtropics, Gulf, or Caribbean--the storm records show this clearly. And as far as storms forming this time of year, we're still in the first half of August and the last two decades or so have seen a shift towards both starting and ending later with the hurricane activity.

Thanks for the information as always. Have a great day.