ATL: HARVEY - Models

[blp]

This will probably in all llikelyhood have faster development compared to Gert but same general path out to sea.

I don't think this is an OTS. Not even the the GFS is showing an OTS scenario anymore. The only way it gets an OTS is if it quickly ramps up with the NE vorticity and manages to hit the weakness in the Central Atlamtic. Right now the NE vorticity is losing out in the models today due to a forecasted SAL outbreak. The weakness Gert is using will not be there on any of the progged models instead you will have the Bermuda High anchored.

[TheStormExpert]

Just my opinion but by just looking at everything and the models I'd say there is a 75% chance of a U.S. threat from this area.

[emeraldislenc]

What part of US?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What part of US?

No way to know this far in advance- only trust a model out to 3-4 days.

[blp]

The 18z HWRF from Gert is showing a very similar solution to the Euro with the SW vorticity winning out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2017081318-eight08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The Hmon is similar.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hmontc2.cgi?time=2017081318-eight08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Looks like GFS is on its own with the NE vorticity.

cannot use the parent domain of a nested grid model. The parameterization gets beyond messed up

Got it makes sense. Thanks. I guess we wait hopefully for a run at the 00z.

[emeraldislenc]

Ok thanks

[FLpanhandle91]

0000z GFS running now.

[Alyono]

new GFS is slightly more reasonable. It shows a semi-legit merger between the two systems. It looks like this is the dominant feature now in the GFS, though it still shows a Fujiwara

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS through 72 hours is keeping the storm much weaker.

500mb vort not showing nearly the bulleye presentation it was either.

[FLpanhandle91]

[Alyono]

GFS upper winds not nearly as favorable this run, so it's coming in MUCH weaker

[Alyono]

91L dissipates this run. Looking at the vorticity fields, it is the disturbance ahead of 91L that develops. Models are starting to develop the same system now

[Hurricaneman]

91L dissipates this run. Looking at the vorticity fields, it is the disturbance ahead of 91L that develops. Models are starting to develop the same system now

Looks more like a merger to me but I could be wrong

[FLpanhandle91]

91L dissipates this run. Looking at the vorticity fields, it is the disturbance ahead of 91L that develops. Models are starting to develop the same system now

Looks more like a merger to me but I could be wrong

It is a merger in my opinion, but the west system is the dominating system in the merger between hour 60 and 66.

[SFLcane]

Wow here we go barely a TD near the islands..

[FLpanhandle91]

Alyono, do you feel that this is the first GFS run without convective feedback being an issue?

[Hurricaneman]

Alyono, do you feel that this is the first GFS run without convective feedback being an issue?

Still some but nowhere near as bad it seems

[Alyono]

Alyono, do you feel that this is the first GFS run without convective feedback being an issue?

it's better. But not, it may be too weak near the islands. It is having major trouble developing vorticity without erroneous convection. Take Gert, it was unable to show any development until after the convection formed

[SFLcane]

Way north of the islands on this run should recurve but we'll see.

[blp]

I am using GFS to check upper environment. Looks like a strong Bermuda Ridge on top. Nowhere to go but west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017081400/gfs_z500a_atl_27.png