ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Hurricaneman]

GFS forming eastern system

GFS could be recurve city but along the eastern seaboard or even eastern Florida also looks like convective feedback again

[p1nheadlarry]

The eastern vort is short-lived, western piece now the main player at three days out

[WeatherEmperor]

Gfs attempting to redeem itself??




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[TheStormExpert]

GFS forming eastern system

Looks to now be dissipating it at 72hrs. and forming the southwestern area.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS forming eastern system

Looks to now be dissipating it at 72hrs. and forming the southwestern area.

Unfortunately we won't know anything about track until we have a singular vortex and this convective feedback in the GFS isn't helping its accuracy

[SFLcane]

12z GFS lol..very weak low nearing the caribbean

[Ivanhater]

GFS killing both vorts

[p1nheadlarry]

[Hurricaneman]

GFS killing both vorts

With the convective feedback we can't use it for development but it's still decent when it comes to steering patterns

[Ivanhater]

I am beginning to wonder with cmc gfs and nav dropping development

[BigB0882]

Can you tell WHY they are dropping development? Are they latching onto that Eastern vort for too long and is that causing issues? Is this what people mean when they say convective feedback? That term has never quite been defined for me. Or is it more shear and/or SAL?

[Steve]

CMC was only out to 06 hours, and it still has a 1012 circulation.

[SFLcane]

I've been questioning environment near the Islands..dare i say 99L

[Hurricaneman]

Can you tell WHY they are dropping development? Are they latching onto that Eastern vort for too long and is that causing issues? Is this what people mean when they say convective feedback? That term has never quite been defined for me. Or is it more shear and/or SAL?

I'm thinking competing vortices is keeping this from organizing in the GFS but my thoughts are closer to what the Euro does

[KWT]

Can you tell WHY they are dropping development? Are they latching onto that Eastern vort for too long and is that causing issues? Is this what people mean when they say convective feedback? That term has never quite been defined for me. Or is it more shear and/or SAL?

It seems to me at least the GFS tries to wind up the eastern area too much and then kind of keeps it just a stretched out mess, the SW area becomes stronger BUT they kind of just nullify each other which allows neither to develop.

[stormreader]

Some of the Euro ensembles do track this over Haiti, but there is a very strong signal with ~40% of the ensembles having a major hurricane in NW Caribbean.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/897088691201609728

Of course that would mean serious business for the northern gulf coast, in all probability. Have to give it another 3-4 days, and then see.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like the GFS can't resolve which vortex to develop and until one or the other develops the development on the GFS will be trash

[stormreader]

The GFS and CMC look to have a PV streamer that dips down from the Central Atlantic around days 4 and 5 which induces a lot of shear over this invest as it heads WNW just NE of the Lesser Antilles.

I'm growing more and more skeptical of this missing islands and not being a Caribbean system. This is going to be a disorganized system for at least three more days. It should move pretty much due west during that time. When you consider the models favor the western part of the system to develop now as well, that makes a Caribbean system even more likely than it appeared yesterday.

Excellent point. Instead of trying to focus on an ultimate destination, your taking what we know already and giving us the more likely shorter term scenario.

[Alyono]

no development is probably the most likely scenario, however. Only the EC shows significant development of this at this time

[stormreader]

Thanks for all the information y'all do a great job explaining!

Agree.