ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Does the initialization of the system further west have any bearing on the track?

Yeah, increases the chances of it going into Mexico or even Central America but it could also turn north around the Yucatán Channel like some notable storms did.

[KWT]

My gut is a further north version of Franklin in terms of track (broadly westward bound.) Obviously this is already further north and likely to develop far earlier, but I'm thinking broadly west into probably one of those Caribbean islands then into the gulf, probably westward towards Texas/Mexico.

Of course that is a pure gut call, the models really aren't giving a huge amount of decent forward guidance with this system.

[tolakram]

Created a short GIF from the NRL site.

[cycloneye]

Easy to see the turning going on in the general area.It may take 2-3 days to fully organize but we are watching very closely here in the Caribbean.

[ColdMiser123]

Top analog for this storm is Allen.

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Invest #91L is benefiting from a symbiotic relationship with the much larger, dry tropical wave to its northwest:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/897109555439689728

[AutoPenalti]

That's an incredibly large envelope.

[Alyono]

very broad system. Cannot see anything strong coming from this yet. Maybe once it reaches the western Caribbean or subtropical western Atlantic. There, development chances may increase, just as they did with Gert

[Hurricaneman]

The only model that is definitive is the Euro, I believe that this system could be more of a nowcast situation with most if not all the models all over the place

[wxman57]

very broad system. Cannot see anything strong coming from this yet. Maybe once it reaches the western Caribbean or subtropical western Atlantic. There, development chances may increase, just as they did with Gert

I think it may struggle east of the Caribbean. Possibly reaching the NE Caribbean Friday evening. Could reach western Cuba by next Monday evening. It's there in the NW Caribbean and in the Gulf where it could intensify significantly. Much will depend on its track (proximity to land) over the weekend. I don't see any strong ridge to its north in 6-7 days. That could mean a northern Gulf coast threat around the middle of next week. Long way out to be confident it will even reach the Gulf. I'd watch the ECMWF over the GFS on this one.

[RL3AO]

very broad system. Cannot see anything strong coming from this yet. Maybe once it reaches the western Caribbean or subtropical western Atlantic. There, development chances may increase, just as they did with Gert

Systems doing well in the western part of the basin. Sounds like a familiar season that shall not be named.

[Alyono]

very broad system. Cannot see anything strong coming from this yet. Maybe once it reaches the western Caribbean or subtropical western Atlantic. There, development chances may increase, just as they did with Gert

Systems doing well in the western part of the basin. Sounds like a familiar season that shall not be named.

can check back in 5 to 7 days to see if there is anything left of this and what conditions will be farther west

[Nimbus]

Its such a broad area we will probably have a few days of convection near the center before it spins up. Currently looks centered near ~13N -38W but I doubt there is much of a pressure gradient.

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm loving the fact that the models can't get a handle on the genesis of this system; it means there is nothing for us to do except sit back and watch it develop on satellite. Feels like old times. I'm going to get out a paper tracking chart and my weather radio to celebrate!

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO: 30/60%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have changed little in organization since this
morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally
conducive for development during the next several days while the
disturbance moves westward at about 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Frank2]

They TWO is very unsure this time around...

Frank

[AubreyStorm]

They TWO is very unsure this time around...

Frank

Why?

[cycloneye]

18z Best TracK: AL, 91, 2017081418, , BEST, 0, 128N, 351W, 25, 1011, DB

[stormreader]

I'm loving the fact that the models can't get a handle on the genesis of this system; it means there is nothing for us to do except sit back and watch it develop on satellite. Feels like old times. I'm going to get out a paper tracking chart and my weather radio to celebrate!

My older brother used to love his weather radio. Tracking was fun. One year, I went to the trouble to put up a small poster for each storm with color coded coordinates etc. representing strength and direction of movement. I know, it was pretty nerdy, but fun.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
More
Like Gert etc, dont believe GFS or the euro getting rid of what I think will be Harvey. Pattern ripe as waves come west now

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/897173466104901632