ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Alyono]

Canadian developing the eastern area

The eastern area is very unlikely to develop because that is the base of the trough. The models are blindly zeroing in on the convection

[stormreader]

Gfs attempting to redeem itself??




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But that looks kinda silly. Awfully close together.

[KWT]

Canadian developing the eastern area

The eastern area is very unlikely to develop because that is the base of the trough. The models are blindly zeroing in on the convection

Which must surely make us question the validity of both the CMC and the GFS as they are both clearly missing the area of interest.

Interestingly the ECM seemed in its 00z run to clock the right area, and funnily enough it developed it.

Wonder whether the models will gradually get more onboard once they latch onto the right area...

[Hurricaneman]

Canadian developing the eastern area

The eastern area is very unlikely to develop because that is the base of the trough. The models are blindly zeroing in on the convection

Which must surely make us question the validity of both the CMC and the GFS as they are both clearly missing the area of interest.

Interestingly the ECM seemed in its 00z run to clock the right area, and funnily enough it developed it.

Wonder whether the models will gradually get more onboard once they latch onto the right area...

I believe the models will go with the western area as that area looks best similar to the Euro

[stormreader]

no development is probably the most likely scenario, however. Only the EC shows significant development of this at this time

So just to be sure, since I don't pull up model info myself. The Euro develops the western energy, and takes it further west into the Carribean. Also keeps it weak for 3-4 days (enhancing west movement). The GFS is not sure what piece to develop, and thus keeps it a confused situation with not much development.

From what we have seen so far, and from the sat pics, seems like you'd have to go with the Euro solution. As one poster said earlier, maybe the GFS will redeem itself, but I wouldn't be on it.

[KWT]

Looks like there is also quite high shear with the GFS run in the area GFS takes this into, due to a upper level low that drops away and tightens around the 120-144hrs mark in the area close to where 91L moves into.

Worth noting though shear is lower further south, so the fact that the eastern vort does form in this run may cause the GFS to stretch the western vort too far north and thus cause it to end up in the higher shear zone, whilst the ECM is that bit further south and thus doesn't quite the same blow from the shear.

[Alyono]

UKMET drops it entirely

[PTrackerLA]

If the 12z Euro were to suddenly drop this I'd definitely have to lean on the no development side. Models are having fits yet again .

[Steve]

Getting to be like Franklin all over again with some of the global models. CMC didn't buy in and ended up being right. In this case, the ECMWF isn't buying in (not yet anyway) to nothing though the 12z run is still 3 hours out for most of us.

[Steve]

If the 12z Euro were to suddenly drop this I'd definitely have to lean on the no development side. Models are having fits yet again .

I don't really care what they say. There's a large envelope of moisture with some turning that's moving across the Atlantic Ocean in mid-August. That's all I need to track. Whether it resolves or not will remain to be seen. I'll continue to watch the models, most of which do show a ripple in the isobars toward the big islands in the 8-10 day period. It's too big to be "nothing" at this time of year that's for sure.

[ronjon]

The 12z GEM looks pretty agressive to me developing three separate systems in the MDR over the next 10 days. Seems to develop the northern part of 91L and a second system behind it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atltropics&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017081412&fh=6

[TheStormExpert]

It's funny how quickly the models have jumped from quick right away development to no development or delayed development.

[stormreader]

If the 12z Euro were to suddenly drop this I'd definitely have to lean on the no development side. Models are having fits yet again .

I don't really care what they say. There's a large envelope of moisture with some turning that's moving across the Atlantic Ocean in mid-August. That's all I need to track. Whether it resolves or not will remain to be seen. I'll continue to watch the models, most of which do show a ripple in the isobars toward the big islands in the 8-10 day period. It's too big to be "nothing" at this time of year that's for sure.

What a strong common sense approach. This whole situation with the models is sometimes really just too much. The old expression "you can't see the forest, for the trees". Significant energy in tropical Atlantic in mid-August. That's usually enough.

[RL3AO]

Climatology and the environment says this should slowly develop and could be a serous threat down the road. If it doesn't develop, that's almost more scientifically interesting.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z NAVGEM still has it.




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[WeatherEmperor]

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[cycloneye]

HMON has a storm south of PR.

[South Texas Storms]

12z HWRF has a strong hurricane into the northern islands.

[HurricaneBrain]

Euro rolling out.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

24h