STEVE LYONS..NO DEVELOPMENT

Rainband · #1 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 8:56 pm

EXPECTS SYSTEM TO MEANDER..THEN MOVE INTO MEXICO..LOTS OF RAIN FOR THEM..NOT MUCH MORE :wink:

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:20 pm

I can't disagree with Dr. Lyons at this point. ALMOST ALL the models bring this disturbance W or WNW before some of them turn it SHARPLY NE. I'm not saying that can't happen, but it has been a long time since I have seen a turn as sharp as some are showing. I think what we are seeing in the BOC is a MCS. With more cold air ridging in tomorrow from the N it becomes a more likely scenario than not IMO. The LLCC of the system we are looking at is NE of this MCS and there was no concentration of convection around the LLCC earlier.

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 10:13 pm

I'm in perfect agreement with Steve Lyons on this (or he's in agreement with me -

). The NHC could elect to call it STS Larry at any time, but since it won't likely come north (and survive), they may just leave it alone. All models indicate tremendous westerly wind shear across the central and northern Gulf through the coming weekend. Anything trying to move north will be extremely sheared.

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Sep 30, 2003 11:16 pm

Hooray for the coldfronts!!

#5 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:26 am

I totally disagree with Dr. Steve, it is becoming better organized, is at the SW periphery of this CONUS troughs influence and is separating as we speak. I look for a slow meander and development and then a NE track toward the upper gulf coast as the front this weekend picks it up.

A minimal hurricane is certainly not out of the question.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:28 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I totally disagree with Dr. Steve, it is becoming better organized, is at the SW periphery of this CONUS troughs influence and is separating as we speak. I look for a slow meander and development and then a NE track toward the upper gulf coast as the front this weekend picks it up.

A minimal hurricane is certainly not out of the question.

We shall see..the canadian agrees on development :o

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:40 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I totally disagree with Dr. Steve, it is becoming better organized, is at the SW periphery of this CONUS troughs influence and is separating as we speak. I look for a slow meander and development and then a NE track toward the upper gulf coast as the front this weekend picks it up.

A minimal hurricane is certainly not out of the question.

Dean I've known you long enough to respect your opinion on tropical development, whether I agree or not. Could you please explain more why you feel this way. It seems to me that the imcoming CAA(today, not later this week even though more is expected Sunday)will keep this from happening.

john186292 · #8 Postby **john186292** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 10:57 am

STEVE LYONS? pls tell us who he is, and where among the top one hundred forcasters, he might rank.
thanks\
john new orleans

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:00 am

john186292 wrote:STEVE LYONS? pls tell us who he is, and where among the top one hundred forcasters, he might rank.
thanks\
john new orleans

Dr. Steve Lyons is the Hurricane expert at the weather channel. He worked for the NHC before working at TWC :wink:

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:03 am

This may help too http://users2.ev1.net/~wwtbackup/maynewsletter.htm

john186292 · #11 Postby **john186292** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:35 am

Thanks, rainband! Where would you rank him?

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 11:38 am

john186292 wrote:Thanks, rainband! Where would you rank him?

Among the best :wink:

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 1:15 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I totally disagree with Dr. Steve, it is becoming better organized, is at the SW periphery of this CONUS troughs influence and is separating as we speak. I look for a slow meander and development and then a NE track toward the upper gulf coast as the front this weekend picks it up.

A minimal hurricane is certainly not out of the question.

This thread regarding Dr. Steve Lyons analyses in the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche was 12 hours ago. Maybe Dr. Lyons has changed his mind since then.

#14 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:39 pm

Betcha Dr. Stevo is changing his tune now, huh?

I was seeing to much eastward motion in our trough in WV imagery to concern myself with his synopsis.

#15 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:41 pm

We need John Hope.

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:43 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Betcha Dr. Stevo is changing his tune now, huh?

I was seeing to much eastward motion in our trough in WV imagery to concern myself with his synopsis.

Everyone makes mistakes. at the time I am sure he was correct..things change. I still value and trust his opinion

He has many years of experience and knowledge :wink:

#17 Postby **Steve** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:52 pm

Let me ask everyone on this thread a question. This is the how manyth time that Steve Lyons has come out and made a statement like this, this year? So and so was going to such and such? So and so wasn't going to hit such and such? I like the guy personally, but...

Steve

sunnyday · #18 Postby **sunnyday** » Wed Oct 01, 2003 7:41 pm

If Steve Lyons said it will miss us in Fl., I won't worry any more about it.
Thanks, Steve!

STEVE LYONS..NO DEVELOPMENT

STEVE LYONS..NO DEVELOPMENT

Thanks, Steve...

Who is online