ATL: HARVEY - Models

[caneman]

Never seen the Euro this inconsistent.

However it just seems like the models are having an incredibly hard time in properly gauging the SAL.

There is always some SAL during hurricane seasons.
The models definitely are having major issues this year for some reason, so inconsistent run to run .

SAL is unusually severe this year

We had an outbreak of dust from Africa here.in the Tampa Bay area a week or 2 ago. It was so thick you thought it was fog. I haven't seen that in several years.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/you-can-catch-a-hazy-tampa-bay-sunset-tonight-because-of-dust-from-sahara/2332714

[TheStormExpert]

Never seen the Euro this inconsistent.

However it just seems like the models are having an incredibly hard time in properly gauging the SAL.

There is always some SAL during hurricane seasons.
The models definitely are having major issues this year for some reason, so inconsistent run to run .

SAL is unusually severe this year

Yeah everyone kept saying last month how it was the most favorable in terms of least amount of SAL since 2005. Honestly this is not normal for mid-August seeing SO MUCH SAL continuously come off Africa. It's killing this seasons potential.

[Alyono]

There is always some SAL during hurricane seasons.
The models definitely are having major issues this year for some reason, so inconsistent run to run .

SAL is unusually severe this year

What's the likelihood of the remainder of the season playing out similarly to 2014? If I remember correctly it was quite high then as well.

no chance of a 2014. Atmosphere was in an el niño state then. It's closer to a la niña state now

Perhaps a 2013 on steroids where we end up with a very high number of named storms, but most only last a brief period of time. Few canes and 1 or 2 intense canes. Maybe not that different from a 1990, but with quite a few more named storms

[Alyono]

There is always some SAL during hurricane seasons.
The models definitely are having major issues this year for some reason, so inconsistent run to run .

SAL is unusually severe this year

Yeah everyone kept saying last month how it was the most favorable in terms of least amount of SAL since 2005. Honestly this is not normal for mid-August seeing SO MUCH SAL continuously come off Africa. It's killing this seasons potential.

2005 had no SAL basically. That year, the dry air came from the mid latitudes. So, you had far weaker waves moving across at a SLOW speed

[GCANE]

COAMPS runs it thru the mid Carib

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... 50&tau=999

[NDG]

I always liked the Euro run from this past Saturday night, of this system struggling its journey across the Atlantic until it approaches the Eastern Caribbean, story of this season.

[caneman]

I always liked the Euro run from this past Saturday night, of this system struggling its journey across the Atlantic until it approaches the Eastern Caribbean, story of this season.

Which Euro runs do you trust? Euro runs all year have been for developent then against development and then back. Just because they get it right in the end, or it matched up with a prior run, doesn't mean they've performed spectacularly. None of the models seem to be doing well. They're all making the CMC look like a rock star.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

06

[ConvergenceZone]

SAL is unusually severe this year

I agree. I don't see much happening at all this year since whatever develops will have to develop in the Gulf with a slight chance of development in the Carib..And when is the last time there has been "great" conditions in the Carib? Just my opinion is all

[OuterBanker]

Mentioned this morning on the local weather (Hampton Roads) was the western path that most models have now shifted to and how it was great for us.

Yesterdays GFS would have made a great conspiracy theory movie destroying the east coast of the US.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0030517578

As against today's models which send it south of the islands.
https://s22.postimg.org/vaaemsng1/al912017.png

[caneseddy]

SAL is unusually severe this year

I agree. I don't see much happening at all this year since whatever develops will have to develop in the Gulf with a slight chance of development in the Carib..And when is the last time there has been "great" conditions in the Carib? Just my opinion is all

Last year with Matthew

[Langinbang187]

Conditions are......underwhelming that's for sure. I don't think we're going to see too much action this Season.

[Frank2]

When I was in weather - 27 to 37 years ago - the tropical Atlantic was usually "clean" as far as African dust outbreaks. Sure, there were a few and cars in Miami would turn light orange, but the worldwide increase in temperature has also allowed the Sarah to expand.

If this continues, Atlantic tropical cyclone formation might be more of an exception.

Probably why the models are having a time of it - they are not programmed for dust outbreaks...

Frank

[facemane]

Conditions are......underwhelming that's for sure. I don't think we're going to see too much action this Season.

it's still way too early to be making these kinds of statements. It's Aug 15th. Climatology speaking,this is the day the Atlantic season starts to ramp up. It's not uncommon to see more tropical systems in early October than early to mid August.

[ConvergenceZone]

Conditions are......underwhelming that's for sure. I don't think we're going to see too much action this Season.

it's still way too early to be making these kinds of statements. It's Aug 15th. Climatology speaking,this is the day the Atlantic season starts to ramp up. It's not uncommon to see more tropical systems in early October than early to mid August.

But if the huge Sal outbreak of 2017 continues, then it's not going to matter

[SouthFLTropics]

Vorticity on the 12z GFS looks a bit better than what was shown on the 06z. Let's see how it holds up as it progresses through the run.

[RL3AO]

Conditions are......underwhelming that's for sure. I don't think we're going to see too much action this Season.

it's still way too early to be making these kinds of statements. It's Aug 15th. Climatology speaking,this is the day the Atlantic season starts to ramp up. It's not uncommon to see more tropical systems in early October than early to mid August.

But if the huge Sal outbreak of 2017 continues, then it's not going to matter

Honest question. What would be your seasonal forecast right now? How many storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes for 2017? I'm curious what you'd view a quiet season as.

[RL3AO]

Vorticity on the 12z GFS looks a bit better than what was shown on the 06z. Let's see how it holds up as it progresses through the run.

The upward trend after the downward trend yesterday.

[otowntiger]

When I was in weather - 27 to 37 years ago - the tropical Atlantic was usually "clean" as far as African dust outbreaks. Sure, there were a few and cars in Miami would turn light orange, but the worldwide increase in temperature has also allowed the Sarah to expand.

If this continues, Atlantic tropical cyclone formation might be more of an exception.

Probably why the models are having a time of it - they are not programmed for dust outbreaks...

Frank

Very interesting. All along I've heard how global warming would increase the number and intensity of tropical storms- this is the first I've heard the opposite. I didn't k know that warmer temps always translates to drier conditions- therefore increasing size of deserts. Couldn't warmer weather also mean more wet?

[RL3AO]

GFS has trended a little strong with 91L for the islands during the last few runs.