ATL: TEN - Models

[hd44]

Here is the gfs , not seeing anticyclone flow for 92l.

Cmc has anticyclonic flow which allows it to develop. Anticyclonic flow is basically an upper level high .

[Blown Away]

18z GFS 156hrs... W turn E of Bahamas and vorticity getting stronger... NE Caribbean gets whacked by future 93L...

[sma10]

Potentially interesting days ahead. 92L not quite dead yet; 93L significantly closer to Leewards this run. Models really not telling us a coherent story on these systems yet.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS is going to develop on this run east of Bahamas with ridge to the north with invest 92l turning west.

[hd44]

Regardless of intensity ... Gfs maintains high latitude ridging which would push any system west...

[SouthFLTropics]

92L says don't write me off just yet. Watch for the comeback east of the Bahamas.



As long as there's a swirl of vorticity to the SE of me in August you can bet I'm going to have my eyes on it. If it survives the TUTT I think it's a player.

[hd44]

92L says don't write me off just yet. Watch for the comeback east of the Bahamas.



As long as there's a swirl of vorticity to the SE of me in August you can bet I'm going to have my eyes on it. If it survives the TUTT I think it's a player.

Also we would need for future 93l ... to go out to sea, or its outflow could shear 92l. Better distance between the two systems would help 92l get going. Some of the models really intensify 93l and that would make a big outflow channel.

[gatorcane]

174 hours heading west:

[Blown Away]

92L says don't write me off just yet. Watch for the comeback east of the Bahamas.



As long as there's a swirl of vorticity to the SE of me in August you can bet I'm going to have my eyes on it. If it survives the TUTT I think it's a player.

18 GFS has action, like 4 systems in a small area, 3 Atlantic & Pacific...

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS if you look at it 92L might have an analog in Erin 1995

[SouthFLTropics]

[Blown Away]

I'm sensing the magic door is opening just in time???

[hd44]

As mentioned future 93l outflow shears 92l to doom. But it is only one run. Ensembles much more important at 00z especially.

[Kingarabian]

Thinking it will miss Florida but the the EC may be in play.

[blp]

Wow this is some run on the 18z. Even 91L is now over the Yucatan moving North. It could emerge into the Gulf.

[sma10]

Fwiw, this run puts into play a scenario that I don't recall ever happening: 3 systems all making landfall simultaneously in such close proximity. If to be believed, central america, bahamas, and northern leewards all getting hit at the same time.

[SouthFLTropics]

As mentioned future 93l outflow shears 92l to doom. But it is only one run. Ensembles much more important at 00z especially.

Agreed...If 93L doesn't get that close I think this gets more interesting. Of a different topic is where the GFS takes 93L to. This is a very complex setup with quite a few players at the table.

[blp]

Fwiw, this run puts into play a scenario that I don't recall ever happening: 3 systems all making landfall simultaneously in such close proximity. If to be believed, central america, bahamas, and northern leewards all getting hit at the same time.

Yep. I know it is fantasy but this is something to see.

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile 92L just on Central Fl Coast and 93L is like a Cat 3/4... Hint NW turn for 93L at 198 hrs...

[SouthFLTropics]

Fwiw, this run puts into play a scenario that I don't recall ever happening: 3 systems all making landfall simultaneously in such close proximity. If to be believed, central america, bahamas, and northern leewards all getting hit at the same time.

Yep. I know it is fantasy but this is something to see.

They are all too close to each other at the same time. Someone's going to be the odd man out and it appears that 92L is it. It gave it the best run through the TUTT though on this 18z GFS than we've seen in a while. Might be a trend.