ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hd44]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif
92l has a lot of spin and a small structure which should let it develop. But dry air is lurking to the north, which will slow or impede anything developing strong for quite some time.

[sma10]

My Calgary friends mentioned near-freezing low temps this morning - the troughs are soon to come...

Are you sure your friends are giving you accurate information?

Today's low in Calgary was 48, with temps forecast in the 70s for the next week or two. Sounds downright delightful.

[GCANE]

Very strong rain rate recorded a few hours ago.
AMSU is showing a slight warm core..

[blp]

92l looks better versus the 91l ATM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

[AxaltaRacing24]

Might get TD 9 or Harvey out of this before king TUTT. It is well on it's way if these current trends continue.

[p1nheadlarry]

Might get TD 9 or Harvey out of this before king TUTT. It is well on it's way if these current trends continue.

Could a consequence of cooler subtropics be these upper-level lows dropping anchor in the middle of the Atlantic?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Might get TD 9 or Harvey out of this before king TUTT. It is well on it's way if these current trends continue.

Could a consequence of cooler subtropics be these upper-level lows dropping anchor in the middle of the Atlantic?

That could be part of it but in reality that area has warmed up considerably since last month and is slightly above normal. I honestly think that it has more to do with the La-Nina leaning atmosphere. 2016 also saw a ULL parade worse than the one that we have had this season that was present near peak season.

[p1nheadlarry]

Might get TD 9 or Harvey out of this before king TUTT. It is well on it's way if these current trends continue.

Could a consequence of cooler subtropics be these upper-level lows dropping anchor in the middle of the Atlantic?

That could be part of it but in reality that area has warmed up considerably since last month and is slightly above normal. I honestly think that it has more to do with the La-Nina leaning atmosphere. 2016 also saw a ULL parade worse than the one that we have had this season that was present near peak season.

Would have to dig deeper into it and look at 2014/15 as well; this already feels like a season where our ACE number get a big boost as we head towards October. Our AEW's have looked robust nearly all season in comparison to those seasons but doesn't necessarily mean they will take advantage of near-ideal conditions from the onset.

[Hurricaneman]

This will probably become a named storm around 45 to 50w before hitting the tutt but if it maintains some kind of vortex similar to what Andrew in 1992 did then I think between 65 and 70w it could intensify so that's what needs to be watched

[Hammy]

Might get TD 9 or Harvey out of this before king TUTT. It is well on it's way if these current trends continue.

Could a consequence of cooler subtropics be these upper-level lows dropping anchor in the middle of the Atlantic?

That could be part of it but in reality that area has warmed up considerably since last month and is slightly above normal. I honestly think that it has more to do with the La-Nina leaning atmosphere. 2016 also saw a ULL parade worse than the one that we have had this season that was present near peak season.

Was 2000 La Nina? I remember it being similar with a sharp TUTT parked around 60W, wound up so tightly that at times it resembled an eye on WV, and we had three consecutive storms (and later pre-Helene TD12), as well as several near-depressions ripped apart between 55 and 65W--and something similar happened in 2007 as well.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could a consequence of cooler subtropics be these upper-level lows dropping anchor in the middle of the Atlantic?

That could be part of it but in reality that area has warmed up considerably since last month and is slightly above normal. I honestly think that it has more to do with the La-Nina leaning atmosphere. 2016 also saw a ULL parade worse than the one that we have had this season that was present near peak season.

Was 2000 La Nina? I remember it being similar with a sharp TUTT parked around 60W, wound up so tightly that at times it resembled an eye on WV, and we had three consecutive storms (and later pre-Helene TD12), as well as several near-depressions ripped apart between 55 and 65W--and something similar happened in 2007 as well.

Yes it was.

[Steve]

My Calgary friends mentioned near-freezing low temps this morning - the troughs are soon to come...

Are you sure your friends are giving you accurate information?

Today's low in Calgary was 48, with temps forecast in the 70s for the next week or two. Sounds downright delightful.

Frank2 hates hurricanes and usually will make that kind of statement or similar annually. He worked with or for NHC a long time ago and I believe experienced Andrew. He's eternally an optimist that bad will not happen. Problem is the troughs have been coming down. All summer. This is one of the coolest relative summers and one of the rainiest I can ever recall. There will be sharper fronts later as the long wave pattern morphs into Fall. But for now, the Western Trough mean position (so called Summer High Tide) isn't even finished migrating West yet.

[p1nheadlarry]

That could be part of it but in reality that area has warmed up considerably since last month and is slightly above normal. I honestly think that it has more to do with the La-Nina leaning atmosphere. 2016 also saw a ULL parade worse than the one that we have had this season that was present near peak season.

Was 2000 La Nina? I remember it being similar with a sharp TUTT parked around 60W, wound up so tightly that at times it resembled an eye on WV, and we had three consecutive storms (and later pre-Helene TD12), as well as several near-depressions ripped apart between 55 and 65W--and something similar happened in 2007 as well.

Yes it was.

Might have to find some literature about this. I'm aware of how the ENSO cycle affects the Hadley cells and areas of high/low pressure in the Pacific, as well as the trajectory of the jet stream, but not as much in the Atlantic basin aside from more rising air.

From CPC: Mid-latitude low pressure systems tend to be weaker than normal in the region of the Gulf of Alaska, during a cold episode winter. This favors the build-up of colder than normal air over Alaska and western Canada, which often penetrates into the northern Great Plains and the western United States. The southeastern United States, on the other hand, becomes warmer and drier than normal.

[SFLcane]

57 you around? What's your take on 92L?

[Nimbus]

Wonder what the models will do if 92L continues to organize into a TD tonight?
Could rob 91L of inflow.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph. Upper-level winds are likely to become less favorable for
development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is bombing out future 93L near NE Caribbean and towards Bahamas... 92L seems to erode the ridge and allow 93L to make a sharp NW turn just E of Bahamas... Both systems so close of proximity that I'm starting to doubt 92L will be much of anything after 60W due to King Tutt and 93L bombing out and stealing 92L's energy... Not scientific, but a little concerned about how this plays out...

[floridasun78]

so none could be td any time so by weekend

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2017081600, , BEST, 0, 139N, 325W, 25, 1011, LO

[MGC]

92L looks to be organizing this evening. Good amount of convection to go along with some mid level spin. If 92L continues to organize a TD could form the next day or two......MGC