
We've got Cuba surrounded!!!
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Blown Away wrote: Meanwhile 92L just on Central Fl Coast and 93L is like a Cat 3/4... Hint NW turn for 93L at 198 hrs...
SFLcane wrote:Really don't know were all these named storms are going to come from NOAA.
LarryWx wrote:Here's a summary of the various runs of 3 models for today:
The 0Z GFS had it recurve as just a wave near 70W 8/21-2. The 6Z GFS had this as a very weak low skirt the east coast of FL 8/23-4 as it recurves. The 12Z GFS had this recurve just ~150 miles east of FL as a very weak low on 8/24.
The 18Z GFS has this move WNW to near Vero Beach, FL, as a recurving weak low late 8/23/early 8/24.
So, the last 3 runs of the GFS have this recurving near the FL east coast 8/23-4 fwiw.
The 0Z CMC has this recurve as a H near 70W 8/23-4 with Bermuda getting large affects in its right half. The 12Z CMC has this hit SE FL as a strong TS or H as it recurves late 8/23-early 8/24.
The 0Z/12Z Euro runs has this as a wave that crosses S FL 8/22.
Conclusion: It is still very early as this is still not yet officially a TC and it is at least a week away from the CONUS. Regardless, the model consensus today is suggesting that this may very well end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS of 91L, 92L, and the wave now over W Africa even though it is shown to only be weak as of now on the GFS/Euro. The most likely threat timing for FL seems to be 8/22-4 (especially 8/23-4) should it ever be a threat. This would be only within a couple of days after the solar eclipse.
SouthFLTropics wrote: We've got Cuba surrounded!!!
Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.0N 61.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 108 20.3N 62.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 120 21.4N 65.2W 1007 38
1200UTC 21.08.2017 132 22.5N 67.9W 1004 41
0000UTC 22.08.2017 144 23.2N 70.2W 1000 44
UKMET saying trouble on the horizon
AdamFirst wrote:Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.
Hurricaneman wrote:AdamFirst wrote:Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.
I have a feeling the models will bring this back in future runs
AdamFirst wrote:Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.
AdamFirst wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:AdamFirst wrote:Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.
I have a feeling the models will bring this back in future runs
Could be a possibility. What would hinder development north of the islands? Gert spun up very quickly all things considered.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests