2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.1525 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945
Franklin has at the time of this post 3.0125 ACE units.Let's see at the end how much it contributes to the North Atlantic
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 8.94 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945
Franklin got 4.8 ACE Units and the North Atlantic still is shy of 10 units. (8.94) The normal number for this date (August 10) is 11 units.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 8.94 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945
cycloneye wrote:Franklin got 4.8 ACE Units and the North Atlantic still is shy of 10 units. (8.94) The normal number for this date (August 10) is 11 units.
It's been adjusted to 3.7 units for both CSU and Wxbell which puts the Atlantic at 7.825.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945
Ntxw wrote:cycloneye wrote:Franklin got 4.8 ACE Units and the North Atlantic still is shy of 10 units. (8.94) The normal number for this date (August 10) is 11 units.
It's been adjusted to 3.7 units for both CSU and Wxbell which puts the Atlantic at 7.825.
Edited.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945
Banyan at 2.52.
It might add up some more huge ACE as the models develops it big time. It'll likely propel it pass the EPAC but still way down Normal YTD of 94.
It might add up some more huge ACE as the models develops it big time. It'll likely propel it pass the EPAC but still way down Normal YTD of 94.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945
euro6208 wrote:Banyan at 2.52.
It might add up some more huge ACE as the models develops it big time. It'll likely propel it pass the EPAC but still way down Normal YTD of 94.
How? Having tabbed out the best track data, I have Banyan just passing 1*10**4 kt**2 at 12Z.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 72.455 - WPAC - 61.425 - NIO - 3.945
1900hurricane wrote:euro6208 wrote:Banyan at 2.52.
It might add up some more huge ACE as the models develops it big time. It'll likely propel it pass the EPAC but still way down Normal YTD of 94.
How? Having tabbed out the best track data, I have Banyan just passing 1*10**4 kt**2 at 12Z.
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php I got the data from here.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 66.1875 - NIO - 3.945
Ahh, looks like Maue's numbers are doing weird things again. I wish I knew why his numbers run so hot sometimes.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 66.1875 - NIO - 3.945
Yeah I haven't been able to figure out his methods. But in the end once it finalizes it's usually where it should be, just real time as it updates seems to be off a little.
Relative to normal the NHEM is running about 85-87% of normal. WPAC about 70%, EPAC 130%, and Atlantic 60% of normal to date ACE
Relative to normal the NHEM is running about 85-87% of normal. WPAC about 70%, EPAC 130%, and Atlantic 60% of normal to date ACE
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 70.2375 - NIO - 3.945
North Atlantic may get plenty of ACE units with what may come out of Invest 91L.Looks like it will be a classic Cabo Verde longtracker.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 7.825 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 70.2375 - NIO - 3.945
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 8.23 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 67.4325 - NIO - 3.945
Western N Pacific 70.1625
Eastern + Cent N Pac 72.945
14W BANYAN 80 90 8.7375
Eastern + Cent N Pac 72.945
14W BANYAN 80 90 8.7375
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2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Not sure where else to put this so I'll put it here--I did a quick survey of the last four years, and from 2013-16 the average is September 25--half the season's ACE still has yet to occur by that point.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 10.1475 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 73.145 - NIO - 3.945
Per the numbers I keep, a couple of things happened by the end of the August 15 UTC day. First, the WPac has caught up to and just barely passed the EPac for the NHem ACE lead (74.065 vs 73.1025, respectively). Also, the NAtl has passed 10*10**4 kt**2, ending the day with 10.635.
*EDIT to fix slight mis-calculation.
*EDIT to fix slight mis-calculation.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 11.6875 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 73.355 - NIO - 3.945
Here's what I have using ATCF.
If the latest NHC forecast verified, it would add 4.25 additional ACE. That would put Gert at 7.63 and the August 4 - 18 period at 11.315, which would somehow verify Phil Klotzbach's above-average two week forecast that appeared doomed.
Code: Select all
Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Hurricane Gert (08L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017081318 35 0.1225 0.1225
2017081400 40 0.16 0.2825
2017081406 40 0.16 0.4425
2017081412 50 0.25 0.6925
2017081418 60 0.36 1.0525
2017081500 65 0.4225 1.475
2017081506 65 0.4225 1.8975
2017081512 65 0.4225 2.32
2017081518 70 0.49 2.81
2017081600 75 0.5625 3.3725
Code: Select all
Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.6075 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 3.3725 75
Season Total 11.4
If the latest NHC forecast verified, it would add 4.25 additional ACE. That would put Gert at 7.63 and the August 4 - 18 period at 11.315, which would somehow verify Phil Klotzbach's above-average two week forecast that appeared doomed.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 11.6875 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 73.355 - NIO - 3.945
RL3AO wrote:Here's what I have using ATCF.Code: Select all
Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Hurricane Gert (08L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017081318 35 0.1225 0.1225
2017081400 40 0.16 0.2825
2017081406 40 0.16 0.4425
2017081412 50 0.25 0.6925
2017081418 60 0.36 1.0525
2017081500 65 0.4225 1.475
2017081506 65 0.4225 1.8975
2017081512 65 0.4225 2.32
2017081518 70 0.49 2.81
2017081600 75 0.5625 3.3725Code: Select all
Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.6075 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 3.3725 75
Season Total 11.4
If the latest NHC forecast verified, it would add 4.25 additional ACE. That would put Gert at 7.63 and the August 4 - 18 period at 11.315, which would somehow verify Phil Klotzbach's above-average two week forecast that appeared doomed.
Careful with your Emily calculation. The 45 kt maximum intensity was a 14Z off-hour fix, meaning it shouldn't count towards the system's ACE.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 11.6875 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 73.355 - NIO - 3.945
1900hurricane wrote:[
Careful with your Emily calculation. The 45 kt maximum intensity was a 14Z off-hour fix, meaning it shouldn't count towards the system's ACE.
I fixed that bug, but apparently, it was in a different script.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 11.6875 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 73.355 - NIO - 3.945
Code: Select all
Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 3.3725 75
Season Total 11.1975
Does that match up with that you have 1900? Took a fun little bit of programming to check the string for synoptic times.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 11.6875 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 73.355 - NIO - 3.945
RL3AO wrote:Code: Select all
Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 3.3725 75
Season Total 11.1975
Does that match up with that you have 1900? Took a fun little bit of programming to check the string for synoptic times.
Looks good, those are the numbers I have.
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Re: 2017 ACE: N.Atlantic - 11.6875 - EPAC - 73.0675 - WPAC - 73.355 - NIO - 3.945
1900hurricane wrote:RL3AO wrote:Code: Select all
Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Four (04L) 0 25
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 3.3725 75
Season Total 11.1975
Does that match up with that you have 1900? Took a fun little bit of programming to check the string for synoptic times.
Looks good, those are the numbers I have.
When was Emily 45kt? Advisory archive has 40.
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