ATL: TEN - Models

[Steve]

CMC runs it between FL and Cuba after burying 91L in the BoC. 93L is the big storm and possibly a recurve. 92L looks like it's on a trajectory somewhere between Hancock Co., MS and Santa Rosa County, FL.
Here's the link to 210 hours (9+ days)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=210

[Steve]

By CMC 234 hours, it could possibly go as far west as Cocodrie, LA and maybe even farther west?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=234

[caneseddy]

CMC runs it between FL and Cuba after burying 91L in the BoC. 93L is the big storm and possibly a recurve. 92L looks like it's on a trajectory somewhere between Hancock Co., MS and Santa Rosa County, FL.
Here's the link to 210 hours (9+ days)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=210

CMC has been very consistent so far with having 92L in the area of the southern Florida peninsula

With the UKMET depicting an identical western track (also consistent past runs) my interest level has perked up...no we see what Euro does but my gut feeling is next week may be full of long nights for all

[AxaltaRacing24]

This run is no joke either. It's in the gulf.

[caneseddy]

This run is no joke either. It's in the gulf.

Some stout ridging on that run

[AtlanticWind]

Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.

I have a feeling the models will bring this back in future runs

Could be a possibility. What would hinder development north of the islands? Gert spun up very quickly all things considered.

After such a poor performance with Gert I have very low confidence in GFS on storm genesis, almost prone
to trust CMC more. Well maybe not

[caneseddy]

I have a feeling the models will bring this back in future runs

Could be a possibility. What would hinder development north of the islands? Gert spun up very quickly all things considered.

After such a poor performance with Gert I have very low confidence in GFS on storm genesis, almost prone
to trust CMC more. Well maybe not

I hear you..UKMET was the first model to sniff out Gert and called for its development while GFS trailed way back

[Ivanhater]

Remember 99L ..all models were on board for strong development...then they all dropped it. Now it a strong hurricane off the eastern seaboard....I honestly don't trust the models with development

[hd44]

Risk for impacts increasing with 92l. Risk for impacts decreasing 91l and highly unlikely with future 93l.
If 92l can sneak west far enough and get trapped under the ridge/ trough dividing point... could stall and then continue wnw until landfall.
All evidence points to 93l fish storm as of now... 91l yucatan or central america. 92l best odds.

[AtlanticWind]

Remember 99L ..all models were on board for strong development...then they all dropped it. Now it a strong hurricane off the eastern seaboard....I honestly don't trust the models with development

Agree 100 percent,I am just looking at the models to get a general idea where a system may end up.
Trust my eye for development like the old days

[hd44]

Ecmwf coming in stronger by 72 hours.

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro trending stronger w/ both 91 and 92L

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[p1nheadlarry]

92L can be seen in the gulf at the end of the run near the TX/LA border.

[tolakram]

Euro has again said, forget this one, but the next one coming off Africa will be big. Really low confidence now.

[Nimbus]

92L can be seen in the gulf at the end of the run near the TX/LA border.

They must cycle through input parameter tweaks, that run sounds like a Monday rider at the high end of the latitude envelope.

[jlauderdal]

Euro has again said, forget this one, but the next one coming off Africa will be big. Really low confidence now.

best to watch and wait at this point until after 70w and not get hung up on any model run..dissipation or major status gets equal weight at this point, steering flow seem well handled though with the ridge locked in but that is the easy part of this whole setup...its actually a rather dangerous setup for the USA

[tolakram]

Euro has again said, forget this one, but the next one coming off Africa will be big. Really low confidence now.

best to watch and wait at this point until after 70w and not get hung up on any model run..dissipation or major status gets equal weight at this point, steering flow seem well handled though with the ridge locked in but that is the easy part of this whole setup...its actually a rather dangerous setup for the USA

Could be, if they get north. I'm reminded of 2007 with Dean and Felix, except storms seem to be delayed in developing until the western Caribbean. All it takes is a weakness in the right place at the right time to send it north.

[ronjon]

Euro has again said, forget this one, but the next one coming off Africa will be big. Really low confidence now.

best to watch and wait at this point until after 70w and not get hung up on any model run..dissipation or major status gets equal weight at this point, steering flow seem well handled though with the ridge locked in but that is the easy part of this whole setup...its actually a rather dangerous setup for the USA

Yeah we could have a tropical cyclone heading for the Florida peninsula or through the straits from 92L with this 500 mb forecast.

[Blown Away]

06z...


Slight uptick in intensity compared to previous runs...

[SFLcane]

Still no HWRF being run for 92L..