ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I am guessing this one becomes Harvey and the 92l becomes Irma. Irma, that name sounds creepy!

I am not a fan of the "I" named storms

You and me both. Ike did a number on us. Had a big bull pine fall on the house...

I lived in southeast Houston dusing Ike in a small town near the bay called la Porte TX Ike devastated us !!!!

[stormreader]

I am not a fan of the "I" named storms

You and me both. Ike did a number on us. Had a big bull pine fall on the house...

I lived in southeast Houston dusing Ike in a small town near the bay called la Porte TX Ike devastated us !!!!

Ike was about as strong a Cat 2 as you ever want to see. Think the winds were at 110mph (top end Cat 2. But remember the scope and size of the storm??? Large for any hurricane, but very large for a Gulf system.

[GeneratorPower]

I am guessing this one becomes Harvey and the 92l becomes Irma. Irma, that name sounds creepy!

Irmagherd! I seriously hope this isn't a theme for the ages.

[stormreader]

You and me both. Ike did a number on us. Had a big bull pine fall on the house...

I lived in southeast Houston dusing Ike in a small town near the bay called la Porte TX Ike devastated us !!!!

Ike was about as strong a Cat 2 as you ever want to see. Think the winds were at 110mph (top end Cat 2. But remember the scope and size of the storm??? Large for any hurricane, but very large for a Gulf system.

BTW its often quoted that we've had no major strikes on the US since 2005 (unspeakable season), But 2008 did have 2 Cat 2 landfalls that I remember. Gustav in SE La. and Ike in SE Tex. If there was another I can't recall. Not majors, but 100 mph nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Shower activity isn't very organized, but Invest #91L doesn't look far from being a tropical depression. It could become one at any time.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/897954820681736192

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

You and me both. Ike did a number on us. Had a big bull pine fall on the house...

I lived in southeast Houston dusing Ike in a small town near the bay called la Porte TX Ike devastated us !!!!

Ike was about as strong a Cat 2 as you ever want to see. Think the winds were at 110mph (top end Cat 2. But remember the scope and size of the storm??? Large for any hurricane, but very large for a Gulf system.

Ike destroyed my house lol the foundation was crippled it was a big size category 2 and caused major destruction

[Alyono]

not much banding associated with the convection

As for Ike, recently, I looked at some wind reports from the storm. The south side did not even have hurricane force winds when it made landfall. Likely saved numerous lives on Galveston

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162258
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A 1009 mb low is centered near 14N49W moving W at 10-15 kt. This
low is also a focus of 850 mb relative vorticity on the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the central Atlc to
the N. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between
49W-54W.

[Aric Dunn]

Like I mentioned earlier..despite.... well ... not surprised with the increase probability there are some key indicators for development.. and by definition it already meets a TC.
The chances of next TC are very apparent an will likely be initiated by morning.if not then it comes down to politics not science..

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 50%-60%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[tolakram]

20 frame loop, continues to slowly build convection IMO.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=22

[stormreader]

Like I mentioned earlier..despite.... well ... not surprised with the increase probability there are some key indicators for development.. and by definition it already meets a TC.
The chances of next TC are very apparent an will likely be initiated by morning.if not then it comes down to politics not science..

Politics mix with science?? Hush---this is a family friendly site! Lol

[Gustywind]

Given the dvorak scale, T numbers are up to 1.0/1.0
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/2345 UTC 13.7N 50.4W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic

[GCANE]

91L will start to run into the convective debris left in the east Carib from the interaction of a AEW to its west and a TUTT over Hispaniola.
Likely will see convection improve within the next 24 hrs from the moist mid-level air.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2017081700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 504W, 25, 1010, LO

[Alyono]

not sure the low from earlier today remains. Any downdrafts from this thunderstorm complex will cause the circulation to dissipate

[floridasun78]

91l better slow down shear door waiting eastern carribbean

[Sanibel]

Could be a sleeper...Bears watching...

[Hammy]

Cloud motion.



Could be a depression by tomorrow. Not sure if it'll make it through the Caribbean or be another Bret/Don, but we should get another name checked off the list if things continue.

[abajan]

Formation Chances Increased to 60% - 70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 ...

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.