ATL: TEN - Models

[stormreader]

I will say this. Do not put your complete faith in the GFS. Proceed with needed caution hugging that model in particular!

My, how times have changed, and life moves on!

[Cpv17]

Seems like the models have gotten worse over the years instead of getting better.

[northjaxpro]

I will say this. Do not put your complete faith in the GFS. Proceed with needed caution hugging that model in particular!

My, how times have changed, and life moves on!

And I used to really like the GFS before they made so many changes to it. So yeah, we indeed move on in life but the GFS model is not what it used to be imo!

[gsheldon]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

[gsheldon]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

Welcome but there is a thread for the wave behind this one on the talking tropics forum

[TheStormExpert]

Those saying the GFS has been performing extremely poorly sure are right, but the Euro and UKMET aren't too far behind either so maybe there is something globally going on with these models causing all the aggravation and stress.

As for 92L's future it's best potential FOR NOW might be on approach towards or near the NE Caribbean that's if you can even trust the models over the next 3-5 days. Beyond that we probably have a better guess than the global models do, after all it is mid-August and you'd expect anything in the western Atlantic or Bahamas region to be of concern.

[SFLcane]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

Welcome to S2K! Thx for views and yep i agree future 93L does have potential ensembles right now recurving it near bermuda if that shear zone dont budge these easterly waves will have a real tuff time becoming a problem. GFS now appears the new NAVGEM but there is no denying all the sinking airmass giving these waves fits.

[otowntiger]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

welcome to the forum! Glad you're here!!

[northjaxpro]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

welcome to the forum! Glad you're here!!

Yes, Welcome to the S2K Community! Please feel free to come in here and share your thoughts with us on these forums!

[floridasun78]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

i mayhave seen on tv here i live miami area

[Happy Pelican]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

Welcome! Look forward to reading your posts! Cheers!

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance hot off the press:

[Blown Away]

Intensity models have gone down all day...

[jlauderdal]

Intensity models have gone down all day...

Lets see in two days what they are doing...they were bad with gert

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Boy if it wasn't for that shear we would have some problems on our hands to say the least.

[AutoPenalti]

Intensity models have gone down all day...

That will change with time, but for a couple of runs we've seen the consensus of tracks to be similar.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Boy if it wasn't for that shear we would have some problems on our hands to say the least.

We still could have "some problems" down the road. The shear will not last forever in its path. Gotta watch this one.

[SFLcane]

00z models did trend further north away from cuba and Haiti..

[AutoPenalti]

00z models did trend further north away from cuba and Haiti..

Yes, and that could be an issue down the road when we get there.