ATL: TEN - Models

[hd44]

Gfs has a good pattern for formation. Note the upper level anticyclone developing near the Florida straights and moving west. This imo is a bad sign that the gfs is severely underdoing intensity given the 90 degree waters.

[sma10]

The Ukmet and CMC are fairly close, with the uk being a bit slower. Am really curious about the upper air steering setup for uk because it has the system moving very very slowly towards the end of the track, only reaching 74W by 144 hours.

[Siker]

UKMET keeps it weak through the TUTT and then has a cane in the southeast Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 57.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 60 18.0N 57.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 20.08.2017 72 18.9N 60.5W 1009 30
1200UTC 20.08.2017 84 19.2N 63.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 96 20.1N 66.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 21.08.2017 108 21.0N 68.6W 1003 45
0000UTC 22.08.2017 120 21.6N 70.3W 997 55
1200UTC 22.08.2017 132 22.0N 71.7W 994 58
0000UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 72.7W 989 60

[Hurricaneman]

CMC nose dives it into North Central Cuba ala Ike...Trough is coming though...might take a west coast of Florida trip.

I think this is more likely than what the GFS shows as the GFS randomly breaks off ULLs that usually in the end aren't really there

[hd44]

UKMET keeps it weak through the TUTT and then has a cane in the southeast Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 57.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 60 18.0N 57.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 20.08.2017 72 18.9N 60.5W 1009 30
1200UTC 20.08.2017 84 19.2N 63.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 96 20.1N 66.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 21.08.2017 108 21.0N 68.6W 1003 45
0000UTC 22.08.2017 120 21.6N 70.3W 997 55
1200UTC 22.08.2017 132 22.0N 71.7W 994 58
0000UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 72.7W 989 60

Going back to the model war games with Hermine of last year. I remember a similar situation where Ukmet kept forming it and Gfs didn't. Should be fun.

[sma10]

UKMET keeps it weak through the TUTT and then has a cane in the southeast Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 57.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 60 18.0N 57.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 20.08.2017 72 18.9N 60.5W 1009 30
1200UTC 20.08.2017 84 19.2N 63.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 96 20.1N 66.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 21.08.2017 108 21.0N 68.6W 1003 45
0000UTC 22.08.2017 120 21.6N 70.3W 997 55
1200UTC 22.08.2017 132 22.0N 71.7W 994 58
0000UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 72.7W 989 60

Curious, as this would equate to a forward motion of about 7-8 mph by day 6. Wonder if it will be in a weak steering environment, waiting for the high to establish? All i know is that a slow moving westward storm in that area of the world could be a nightmare.

[Bocadude85]

UKMET keeps it weak through the TUTT and then has a cane in the southeast Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 57.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 60 18.0N 57.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 20.08.2017 72 18.9N 60.5W 1009 30
1200UTC 20.08.2017 84 19.2N 63.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 96 20.1N 66.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 21.08.2017 108 21.0N 68.6W 1003 45
0000UTC 22.08.2017 120 21.6N 70.3W 997 55
1200UTC 22.08.2017 132 22.0N 71.7W 994 58
0000UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 72.7W 989 60

Going back to the model war games with Hermine of last year. I remember a similar situation where Ukmet kept forming it and Gfs didn't. Should be fun.

I think your thinking of the Euro...the Euro kept insisting that Hermine would be a cane strike in S.Fla.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hello Pensacola

[hd44]

Ukmet

[blp]

12z FIM redevelops in Gulf then pulls it back over Florida.

https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2017081612&plotName=wind_850&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

[blp]

[img]http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif[/i]
Ukmet

Wow.

[AutoPenalti]

Ukmet

UKMET is really scary. It's not only going slow, it's intensifying under favorable conditions.

[hd44]

Ukmet

UKMET is really scary. It's not only going slow, it's intensifying under favorable conditions.

Yes it looks to be rapidly intensifying... but the trough is coming down and its moving slow. Might recurve on it?

[AutoPenalti]

Ukmet

UKMET is really scary. It's not only going slow, it's intensifying under favorable conditions.

Yes it looks to be rapidly intensifying... but the trough is coming down and its moving slow. Might recurve on it?

No that trough won't make it in time. Ridge is pretty stout at that timeframe.

[sma10]

12z FIM redevelops in Gulf then pulls it back over Florida.

https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2017081612&plotName=wind_850&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

Extraordinarily strange track for August

[hd44]

Not good.... growing gefs support some with major hurricanes.

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro trending stronger w/ 92L (weaker w/ wave behind) at 72 hrs

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[WeatherEmperor]

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[AutoPenalti]

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

---

MUCH stronger.

EDIT: That's the EURO.

[Cpv17]

The Euro basically kills it at hour 120