ATL: TEN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like Euro just completely killed it.

[hd44]

Euro 168 hour has tropical depression forming over south Florida.

[hd44]

[hd44]

1008 mb td overland.

[hd44]

[Cpv17]

It strengthens over land, but doesn't strengthen over water? What the heck lol

[hd44]

Top analog Hurricane Frederick for 92l from past storm tracks around this date and 500 mb pattern
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/analogs/92L_analogs_latest.png

[WeatherHoon]

Showing a sharp recurve right over Florida. Interesting.

[AtlanticWind]

Models seem to show a very small system, could be part of the disagreement on the models.
Seemed like I remember in the past models having trouble resolving these tiny storms.

Also a small storm is very sensitive to slight differences in the environment.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET has 92L near the northern coast of Cuba in 168 hours:

[hd44]

00z UKMET has 92L near the northern coast of Cuba in 168 hours:

Conflicting as the other Ukmet site has more north of that.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET has 92L near the northern coast of Cuba in 168 hours:

Conflicting as the other Ukmet site has more north of that.

Didn't even notice that until now, plotting the text output you're correct, this output doesn't match (although it is the latest image from the 00z run). We're use to models disagreeing amongst each other, now we have the same model outputs disagreeing with each other . Below is the text output and corresponding plots:

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2017 18.0N 57.0W WEAK
00UTC 20.08.2017 18.9N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2017 19.2N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2017 20.1N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2017 21.0N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2017 21.6N 70.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2017 22.0N 71.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2017 22.4N 72.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

EURO has been very accurate on track this year- so if it starts consistently showing 92L nearing Florida then it is time to pay attention. I don't think it will resolve the intensity very well until we get to next week. With Franklin and Cindy the intensity was not resolved well till later, but the track was dead on. Nearly all global models have consistently shown a strong ridge at both the surface and aloft off the SE US coast that may be strong enough to push 92L south into Cuba for a time. Some globals also show a trough approaching FL as 92L crosses the longitude of FL- such a scenario would tend to focus it's activity over the state. Anything from a Bonnie to Hermine type track is possible IMO. Of course it is over a week out so anywhere else in the gulf is still fair game.
Conditions should be favorable for intensification of 92L near the longitude of the bahamas. Satellite imagery shows a Tropical Upper Trophespheric Trough migrating west through the eastern caribbean and north into the atlantic. This feature will migrate west in tandem with 92L to its east. Conditions become somewhat unfavorable for 92L just north of the islands but as it nears the Bahamas its gonna take off.

EURO, which is very good on track, brings 92L into S. FL and up through the state before accelerating it to the NE after it meanders over florida for a bit...CMC and EURO both paint a wet and breezy picture about 7 days from now over South and Central Florida. 92L will need to be watched by Floridians. It will behave very similarly to Hermine in terms of staying weak until the Bahamas IMO.

[NDG]

EURO has been very accurate on track this year- so if it starts consistently showing 92L nearing Florida then it is time to pay attention. I don't think it will resolve the intensity very well until we get to next week. With Franklin and Cindy the intensity was not resolved well till later, but the track was dead on.

Totally agree.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS basically drops development.

[Bizzles]

I wonder how much 91L and soon 93L impact how the models are handling this (and vice-versa)

[ronjon]

06z GFS basically drops development.

GFS essentially showing no development of 91L, 92L, or the Cabo Verde disturbance. Either its hit the mark where no other model has or its out-to-lunch concerning cyclogenesis.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

06z GFS basically drops development.

Typical it's been the line of the year

[Dean4Storms]

Looking more and more likely 92L will be a concern for Florida, how badly is the million dollar question.

[blp]

It strengthens over land, but doesn't strengthen over water? What the heck lol

That has actually happened a few times before most notably was Katrina in 2005 which got stronger through its passage over southern Florida. Southern part of Florida is mostly wetlands.