ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

It strengthens over land, but doesn't strengthen over water? What the heck lol

That has actually happened a few times before most notably was Katrina in 2005 which got stronger through its passage over southern Florida. Southern part of Florida is mostly wetlands.

We saw this happen with Fay as well. It tightened up over the Everglades. Unless you live down here most people don't realize that aside from a sliver of land on each coast the peninsula is basically shallow swamp water and sawgrass from Lake Okeechobee south.

[blp]

00z UKmet stronger and continues to parallel Cuba but toward the end starts a WNW heading probably indicative of the trough coming in.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z UKmet stronger and continues to parallel Cuba but toward the end starts a WNW heading probably indicative of the trough coming in.

That graphic is not indicative of the output that we saw earlier. Perhaps someone can clarify which is correct. The output had it farther north.

[AutoPenalti]

00z UKmet stronger and continues to parallel Cuba but toward the end starts a WNW heading probably indicative of the trough coming in.

That doesn't seem right...

[SouthFLTropics]

I think we are going to see the models trend more to the north today later in the forecast period in response to the digging trough coming down across the Midwest. Before this is all said and done 92L may recurve through the Bahamas and head out to sea. It will all depend on timing. The track so far is the easy part of this equation. The intensity...I'm not even going to tackle that at this time. It's a wildcard at the moment.

[gatorcane]

Let me remind some folks just how badly models have been on intensity/genesis forecasts. Take a look at "King" Euro here with what it showed a week ago in the 00Z run on Aug 10th for Gert when Gert was located a little NE of Lesser Antilles...Geert was MUCH more than what the Euro showed here...animation below.

[Alyono]

00z UKmet stronger and continues to parallel Cuba but toward the end starts a WNW heading probably indicative of the trough coming in.

That doesn't seem right...

that plot does not match the text. Not sure what is going on

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 57.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 60 18.0N 57.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 20.08.2017 72 18.9N 60.5W 1009 30
1200UTC 20.08.2017 84 19.2N 63.7W 1008 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 96 20.1N 66.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 21.08.2017 108 21.0N 68.6W 1003 45
0000UTC 22.08.2017 120 21.6N 70.3W 997 55
1200UTC 22.08.2017 132 22.0N 71.7W 994 58
0000UTC 23.08.2017 144 22.4N 72.7W 989 60

[SFLcane]

Ouch...thats horrible lol gatorcane.

[boca]

You mean our friend the east coast trough will come and save the day for us in Florida? Why am I not surprised.

[Steve H.]

IMHO, I think that since 92L isn't even in the picture yet (still in the central Atlantic) that the mid-west trough will have come and gone by the time 92L gets to a latitude that it would be affected by it. I would look farther upstream for features that will be on the board by next Tuesday/Wednesday. Here is a snippet from the NWS Melbourne:

Weekend-next Thu...The 00z GFS showed mid level inverted trough
shifting west over the Gulf of Mexico early in the period, with
ridge building in behind it over Florida. Meanwhile, the surface
ridge axis will lift into north Florida Sunday, which would
generate an onshore wind flow.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[psyclone]

I wouldn't get too hung up on model intensity depictions pre genesis. As has been referenced above, we have plenty of examples of poor performance. Instead, at this juncture I'd look at the big picture for some guidance as to where it will go when and if it forms..keeping in mind that we're into the time of year when stuff happens and it happens fast. it's tough to go wrong betting with climo so i'd place my chips on the "eventual development" table and let it ride. It's also worth remembering just how much more favorable late August is even compared to early August...it's a huge month but it's very back loaded. we're in the hot zone and any limitations in model output should be viewed through that prism.

[SouthFLTropics]

Gatorcane...that's a perfect example of just how poorly ALL of the models have been on forecasting cyclogenesis. I don't have time right now but it would be interesting to see the GFS output for that same time period for comparison.

[cajungal]

Still watching it closely here in SE Louisiana.

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane...that's a perfect example of just how poorly ALL of the models have been on forecasting cyclogenesis. I don't have time right now but it would be interesting to see the GFS output for that same time period for comparison.

Here is the 06Z run of the GFS for Geert/99L on Aug 10th from hours 0 to 144:

[Stormcenter]

I believe 92L will be a player somewhere along the U.S. coastline.

[SouthFLTropics]

That tells you everything you need to know about the possible future that 92L has. Watching closely here in South Florida.

[Hurricaneman]

Gatorcane...that's a perfect example of just how poorly ALL of the models have been on forecasting cyclogenesis. I don't have time right now but it would be interesting to see the GFS output for that same time period for comparison.

Here is the 06Z run of the GFS for Geert/99L on Aug 10th from hours 0 to 144:

That's even worse that what the Euro showed

[gatorcane]

Even the UKMET didn't show much for Gert/99L. Here is the run from 8/11 but it did show something weak:

[tolakram]

GFS did not have it until Sunday afternoon. Here's the 0Z Sunday run that at least showed the disturbance, prior to that it was doing what it's doing now and completely losing any vorticity. The 12Z Sunday run had a decent TS or hurricane. What I find interesting is that both models seemed to come around near the same time, as if something (inputs) changed in a pretty big way. He 12Z Sunday euro run had a much stronger storm and both models locked on to a similar solution from that point on.

[SoupBone]

I think we are going to see the models trend more to the north today later in the forecast period in response to the digging trough coming down across the Midwest. Before this is all said and done 92L may recurve through the Bahamas and head out to sea. It will all depend on timing. The track so far is the easy part of this equation. The intensity...I'm not even going to tackle that at this time. It's a wildcard at the moment.

It always comes down to timing of the tough for you guys in Florida.

Any model consistency as to the timing?