ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Shear drops off after 72 hours...

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep...and look at that uptick in SST's. The recipe for a bomb is there just waiting to happen.

[SFLcane]

interesting guys...thx for posting the ships output. watching closely

[Blown Away]

12z...
Slight general uptick in intensity models late

[jlauderdal]

12z...
Slight general uptick in intensity models late

still very weak, lets see if they trend up next 24 hours

[jlauderdal]

Shear drops off after 72 hours...

this has remained consistent now for a couple of days...track guidance consistent too we should know by sunday if we have are going to have a hurricane to deal with in the united states

[Blown Away]

12z Ships... Little stronger late and not as strong as 06z from @36-72 hrs... Not an exact science IMO...

[Hurricaneman]

12z Ships... Little stronger late and not as strong as 06z from @36-72 hrs... Not an exact science IMO...

What I'm also seeing is lower shear than in previous runs

[ronjon]

We shouldn't get too hung up on the actual forecast values of shear - they have been notoriously inaccurate but I think looking for trends in the shear forecasts (are they decreasing or increasing on certain days with successive model runs) can be meaningful.

[gatorcane]

Latest floater below. It has a good structure/vorticity and looks to be gaining some latitude. That means it could miss the Lesser Antilles and possibly the Greater Antilles to the north. I find it hard to believe this won't become something once it nears the Bahamas. We need to watch this one closely:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[SouthDadeFish]

Over the past two days, the GFS has changed its tune in regard to the interaction with the TUTT/PV streamer. It now looks like the PV streamer will be slightly farther from the TC than what was forecast a couple of days ago, which will slightly lessen the vertical wind shear compared to earlier forecasts. The disturbance is holding its own so far against the SAL to the north. As SSTs warm in the path of 92L, it should be able to better equipped to fight off the dry air. If the vortex remains somewhat intact after its dance with the PV streamer, it will need to be watched for development north of the Antilles, if it's not already a TC by then.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19006&y=7537&z=4&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[ronjon]

Latest floater below. It has a good structure/vorticity and looks to be gaining some latitude. That means it could miss the Lesser Antilles and possibly the Greater Antilles to the north. I find it hard to believe this won't become something once it nears the Bahamas or possibly sooner.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Will be encountering warmer ocean temps too as it nears 50W - think the stable dry air surrounding the system has held it in check so far. its got a good circulation.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be surprised to see recon go out to this one by tomorrow if it continues to organize

[MississippiWx]

Latest floater below. It has a good structure/vorticity and looks to be gaining some latitude. That means it could miss the Lesser Antilles and possibly the Greater Antilles to the north. I find it hard to believe this won't become something once it nears the Bahamas or possibly sooner.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Will be encountering warmer ocean temps too as it nears 50W - think the stable dry air surrounding the system has held it in check so far. its got a good circulation.

Yeah, you can see the stratocumulus deck it is embedded within which is a tell-tale sign that stable air is limiting development. Development chances should increase once it clears the islands to the north. The TUTT or PV streamer nearby can actually help to initiate the convection it needs similar to what happened with Gert before it became a tropical cyclone.

[SouthFLTropics]

Latest floater below. It has a good structure/vorticity and looks to be gaining some latitude. That means it could miss the Lesser Antilles and possibly the Greater Antilles to the north. I find it hard to believe this won't become something once it nears the Bahamas or possibly sooner.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Will be encountering warmer ocean temps too as it nears 50W - think the stable dry air surrounding the system has held it in check so far. its got a good circulation.

Yeah, you can see the stratocumulus deck it is embedded within which is a tell-tale sign that stable air is limiting development. Development chances should increase once it clears the islands to the north. The TUTT or PV streamer nearby can actually help to initiate the convection it needs similar to what happened with Gert before it became a tropical cyclone.

Look at how the TUTT is enhancing convection above Hispaniola and Puerto Rico at this moment. That is a HUGE blowup of convection across that area. Models be damned, I really don't have a good feeling about the potential that 92L has.

[OuterBanker]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19006&y=7537&z=4&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Thanks Tolakram. What a wonderful link. Lots to play with and unmatched resolution.

You should see it on a 4k 65 with cable modem.

Never even thought this would be available to the general public. Wow!

[gatorcane]

looks like some convection is on the increase. This would likely become Irma instead of Harvey. I just don't like the sound of that name..."Irma"

[Bocadude85]

Development chances have been upped. 8AM TWO below.


2. Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure
located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past
24 hours. Continued gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves
north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[gatorcane]

The TUTT in the Eastern Bahamas is definitely moving west. The upper-low north of 92L with the shear the models think could severely disruption 92l is slowly moving SSW. Doesn't seem to be making that much progress: