ATL: TEN - Models

[N2FSU]

where does UKMET it have 92l?

[Steve]

Questioning sanity in 2017 comes with the territory. But it's funny how the CMC is being taken a little more seriously than the GFS by many of us now. It outshined GFS with Gert. I will give the CMC better than even odds to outshine today's GFS 12z run with 9, 92L and 93L. Crazy. The main model we have just doesn't seem to be working in the tropical Atlantic. LOL. I still run it like everyone does, but GFS outputs come with a shaker of salt.

[caneseddy]

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where does UKMET it have 92l?

That's not a comforting position if you live in South Florida/Keys...fortunately we still have many many days to go to see what happens...but the UKMET has been consistent in its past runs with an intensifying storm in the Southern Bahamas area so got to give it some weight

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW, the HWRF is coming in much more impressive at 93 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Questioning sanity in 2017 comes with the territory. But it's funny how the CMC is being taken a little more seriously than the GFS by many of us now. It outshined GFS with Gert. I will give the CMC better than even odds to outshine today's GFS 12z run with 9, 92L and 93L. Crazy. The main model we have just doesn't seem to be working in the tropical Atlantic. LOL. I still run it like everyone does, but GFS outputs come with a shaker of salt.

Amen! You are preaching to the choir in this aspect!

[Rockin4NOLA]

I only ask this for possible track purposes not intensity but could this cross over Florida sort of like Katrina did if the ridge holds that long?

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF much further north and much stronger than 06z

[Hurricaneman]

I'll say this that the main models seem to have been set back 20 years and even the NHC thinks they're crap so it may end up being 2 models we used to think of as crap in the UKMET and CMC that end up being the most right

[ROCK]

Questioning sanity in 2017 comes with the territory. But it's funny how the CMC is being taken a little more seriously than the GFS by many of us now. It outshined GFS with Gert. I will give the CMC better than even odds to outshine today's GFS 12z run with 9, 92L and 93L. Crazy. The main model we have just doesn't seem to be working in the tropical Atlantic. LOL. I still run it like everyone does, but GFS outputs come with a shaker of salt.

I have to agree with you on that Steve..CMC not having GFS upgrade issues or downgrade whatever happened to it.

[jlauderdal]

This is starting to look like a Katrina/Ike senario.

not really...katrina came in from the west then dipped south on the approach to broward county, went through the keys...i have yet to see any model do that

[SouthFLTropics]

I only ask this for possible track purposes not intensity but could this cross over Florida sort of like Katrina did if the ridge holds that long?

Most definitely...either over FLA or through the straights.

[SouthFLTropics]

108 hours...HWRF almost has a Cat 1 in the Bahamas. Strong TS being shown.

[gatorcane]

108 hours...HWRF almost has a Cat 1 in the Bahamas. Strong TS being shown.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92L_37.png

Looks to be turning more West too

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... @60mph TS at 120 hrs... Strongest run so far in days, just SE of Florida moving WNW...

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 120...HWRF with a strong TS heading towards Andros Island

[gatorcane]

Radar view:

[Jerry]

Just a thought here, but with the upgrade to Euro/GFS and with no upgrade to the CMC is it possible that the old Euro/GFS would have had something more defined with this system by now and that the CMC would be just following suit as it may have done in the past? I realize that the CMC tends to overdue systems, but with the other models being so bad maybe the CMC is on to something?

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Cat 1 at 126 hrs... Strongest run so far in days, quickly intensifying, SFL in picture and moving WNW...

[SFLcane]

Intensifying TC headed for SFL...https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=92L&pkg=satIR&runtime=2017081712&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=495

[Steve]

I only ask this for possible track purposes not intensity but could this cross over Florida sort of like Katrina did if the ridge holds that long?

Yes. Look at the 12z Spaghetti plots. I'm not saying it will or it won't. But the possibility is there.