ATL: TEN - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro at 48hrs a bit weaker so far




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[Steve]

Just a thought here, but with the upgrade to Euro/GFS and with no upgrade to the CMC is it possible that the old Euro/GFS would have had something more defined with this system by now and that the CMC would be just following suit as it may have done in the past? I realize that the CMC tends to overdue systems, but with the other models being so bad maybe the CMC is on to something?

CMC went through an upgrade in late 2015 or early 2016. It's been noticeably better. But its old ghosts still haunt it sometimes when it wants to put 4 or 5 storms on the map at the same time. It definitely overdoes things, but it's at least something to be considered now on its own rather than part of the larger package of models. JMO

[SouthFLTropics]

That's definitely the most alarming run from the HWRF that we've seen yet regarding 92L. We'll have to see if it's the start of a trend.

[BigB0882]

The last frame from 120 to 126 it looks to move almost due West.

[SouthFLTropics]

72 Hours...Euro Vorticity is weaker than 00z

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro 72 hrs even weaker. Maybe the GFS wasnt so bad afterall....




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[ronjon]

Rapidly deepening hurricane (988 mb) at 126 hour mark on the HWRF - heading west toward homestead.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=92L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017081712&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro at 96 hrs almost nothing left. All systems are not 100% go yet for decelopment




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[stormlover2013]

Euro is weaker this run

[SouthFLTropics]

96 Hours...Euro says Forget about it!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

120...TW landfall South Florida

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro at 120 almost complete gone.....LOL




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[BigB0882]

I don't know if I trust the models showing no development. I feel like they insisted on nothing for 09 and it is about to become a TS and probably eventually a hurricane. I haven't been paying close attention to those model threads to say for certain but it feels like they stuck to no development up until very recently. Maybe they still do. lol

[WeatherEmperor]

So the Ukmet, Canadian and Hwrf develop this. The Euro, Gfs, Hmon and Navgem do not. Who is right? Stay tuned...


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[caneseddy]

Euro at 120 almost complete gone.....LOL

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170817/a55feefdc0a5887a86fe88689f1e8c3d.png[/
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We shall see who is right

[Hammy]

I don't know if I trust the models showing no development. I feel like they insisted on nothing for 09 and it is about to become a TS and probably eventually a hurricane. I haven't been paying close attention to those model threads to say for certain but it feels like they stuck to no development up until very recently. Maybe they still do. lol

Yeah, I'll wait until the models get a better fix--remember even for a few runs after Gert formed the models (GFS especially) were still showing no development at all.

[jlauderdal]

Euro at 120 almost complete gone.....LOL

[im g]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170817/a55feefdc0a5887a86fe88689f1e8c3d.png[/img]


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So we have two camps it seems:

Euro and GFS say nada
CMC/UKMET/NAVGEM/HWRF say anywhere from a TS to Hurricane

We shall see who is right

one thing they can all agree on is general track...interesting to see gfs and euro aligned as they are often times at odds seeing the setup differently..if they were aligned on hurricane status we would all be saying get the shutters ready

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro at 120 almost complete gone.....LOL

[i mg]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170817/a55feefdc0a5887a86fe88689f1e8c3d.png[/img]


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So we have two camps it seems:

Euro and GFS say nada
CMC/UKMET/NAVGEM/HWRF say anywhere from a TS to Hurricane

We shall see who is right

one thing they can all agree on is general track...interesting to see gfs and euro aligned as they are often times at odds seeing the setup differently..if they were aligned on hurricane status we would all be saying get the shutters ready

I'd be asking you to enable your South Florida hurricane shield jlauderdale...Fire up the generator.

[tolakram]

Please remove image tags when quoting, or put a space in so the image doesn't load.

West of Florida this run, the little yellow spot. I am extremely skeptical.

[SFLcane]

Another view at the HWRF.. one to watch for US threat next week.