ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
92L looks close to being a TC this afternoon. This is the one to watch for potential impacts on the USA....MGC
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
MGC wrote:92L looks close to being a TC this afternoon. This is the one to watch for potential impacts on the USA....MGC
Agreed it is very close:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 171807
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 17 20170817
175700 1328N 05509W 9774 00258 0066 +243 +243 080039 040 034 000 01
175730 1327N 05507W 9773 00258 //// +240 //// 082039 040 035 000 01
175800 1326N 05506W 9773 00259 //// +241 //// 083038 039 035 001 01
175830 1326N 05505W 9775 00257 //// +240 //// 085038 039 035 000 01
175900 1325N 05504W 9773 00260 0066 +242 //// 089038 039 032 001 01
175930 1325N 05503W 9774 00259 //// +241 //// 092036 038 032 000 01
180000 1325N 05502W 9773 00262 //// +241 //// 093034 036 032 001 01
180030 1324N 05500W 9774 00260 //// +240 //// 095032 033 030 000 01
180100 1324N 05459W 9777 00259 //// +241 //// 097032 033 029 004 01
180130 1324N 05458W 9774 00262 //// +241 //// 097032 032 030 001 01
180200 1324N 05456W 9774 00258 //// +239 //// 097030 032 028 002 01
180230 1324N 05455W 9782 00258 //// +239 //// 098028 029 027 001 01
180300 1323N 05454W 9778 00258 //// +240 //// 103027 028 026 004 01
180330 1322N 05453W 9772 00265 //// +240 //// 106026 026 020 001 05
180400 1322N 05452W 9775 00263 //// +240 //// 109027 028 019 001 05
180430 1323N 05451W 9770 00269 0072 +243 +241 111026 027 020 001 05
180500 1323N 05449W 9772 00268 0073 +240 +239 113025 025 023 001 01
180530 1322N 05448W 9777 00262 //// +240 //// 115023 024 022 001 01
180600 1322N 05447W 9772 00268 //// +240 //// 118021 023 021 001 01
180630 1322N 05447W 9772 00268 //// +238 //// 120020 021 020 000 01
$$
;
At least a partial circulation exists but it hasn't been closed off yet.
URNT15 KNHC 171807
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 17 20170817
175700 1328N 05509W 9774 00258 0066 +243 +243 080039 040 034 000 01
175730 1327N 05507W 9773 00258 //// +240 //// 082039 040 035 000 01
175800 1326N 05506W 9773 00259 //// +241 //// 083038 039 035 001 01
175830 1326N 05505W 9775 00257 //// +240 //// 085038 039 035 000 01
175900 1325N 05504W 9773 00260 0066 +242 //// 089038 039 032 001 01
175930 1325N 05503W 9774 00259 //// +241 //// 092036 038 032 000 01
180000 1325N 05502W 9773 00262 //// +241 //// 093034 036 032 001 01
180030 1324N 05500W 9774 00260 //// +240 //// 095032 033 030 000 01
180100 1324N 05459W 9777 00259 //// +241 //// 097032 033 029 004 01
180130 1324N 05458W 9774 00262 //// +241 //// 097032 032 030 001 01
180200 1324N 05456W 9774 00258 //// +239 //// 097030 032 028 002 01
180230 1324N 05455W 9782 00258 //// +239 //// 098028 029 027 001 01
180300 1323N 05454W 9778 00258 //// +240 //// 103027 028 026 004 01
180330 1322N 05453W 9772 00265 //// +240 //// 106026 026 020 001 05
180400 1322N 05452W 9775 00263 //// +240 //// 109027 028 019 001 05
180430 1323N 05451W 9770 00269 0072 +243 +241 111026 027 020 001 05
180500 1323N 05449W 9772 00268 0073 +240 +239 113025 025 023 001 01
180530 1322N 05448W 9777 00262 //// +240 //// 115023 024 022 001 01
180600 1322N 05447W 9772 00268 //// +240 //// 118021 023 021 001 01
180630 1322N 05447W 9772 00268 //// +238 //// 120020 021 020 000 01
$$
;
At least a partial circulation exists but it hasn't been closed off yet.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
92L looks good this afternoon. It already has a well defined structure and circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:92L looks good this afternoon. It already has a well defined structure and circulation.
I've seen invests look worse than this get upgraded. I would guess that the lack of support from the GFS and Euro is giving the NHC pause.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 171817
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 18 20170817
180700 1321N 05444W 9774 00268 //// +236 //// 122019 019 019 000 01
180730 1321N 05443W 9773 00267 //// +236 //// 123018 018 018 000 05
180800 1320N 05441W 9769 00270 //// +236 //// 122017 018 015 000 01
180830 1319N 05440W 9772 00269 0076 +240 +235 127017 018 016 001 00
180900 1318N 05439W 9774 00268 0076 +238 +232 132016 017 016 000 01
180930 1317N 05438W 9778 00265 //// +237 //// 134014 014 016 000 05
181000 1316N 05437W 9769 00271 0076 +240 +237 138014 015 013 001 00
181030 1315N 05437W 9774 00267 0076 +240 +237 138013 014 012 000 00
181100 1313N 05436W 9768 00271 //// +236 //// 134013 014 012 000 01
181130 1312N 05436W 9776 00267 //// +235 //// 136014 014 011 000 01
181200 1310N 05436W 9773 00269 //// +236 //// 142013 014 012 000 01
181230 1309N 05436W 9780 00264 //// +236 //// 145012 013 011 000 01
181300 1307N 05436W 9782 00264 //// +235 //// 145010 011 011 000 01
181330 1306N 05436W 9773 00269 //// +235 //// 148011 012 010 000 01
181400 1305N 05437W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 153010 011 011 000 01
181430 1303N 05438W 9781 00259 //// +235 //// 151011 011 012 000 01
181500 1302N 05439W 9773 00269 //// +235 //// 157011 011 012 000 01
181530 1301N 05440W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 163011 012 012 000 01
181600 1300N 05441W 9771 00270 //// +235 //// 173011 011 015 000 05
181630 1259N 05442W 9771 00269 //// +235 //// 172011 012 013 000 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 171817
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 18 20170817
180700 1321N 05444W 9774 00268 //// +236 //// 122019 019 019 000 01
180730 1321N 05443W 9773 00267 //// +236 //// 123018 018 018 000 05
180800 1320N 05441W 9769 00270 //// +236 //// 122017 018 015 000 01
180830 1319N 05440W 9772 00269 0076 +240 +235 127017 018 016 001 00
180900 1318N 05439W 9774 00268 0076 +238 +232 132016 017 016 000 01
180930 1317N 05438W 9778 00265 //// +237 //// 134014 014 016 000 05
181000 1316N 05437W 9769 00271 0076 +240 +237 138014 015 013 001 00
181030 1315N 05437W 9774 00267 0076 +240 +237 138013 014 012 000 00
181100 1313N 05436W 9768 00271 //// +236 //// 134013 014 012 000 01
181130 1312N 05436W 9776 00267 //// +235 //// 136014 014 011 000 01
181200 1310N 05436W 9773 00269 //// +236 //// 142013 014 012 000 01
181230 1309N 05436W 9780 00264 //// +236 //// 145012 013 011 000 01
181300 1307N 05436W 9782 00264 //// +235 //// 145010 011 011 000 01
181330 1306N 05436W 9773 00269 //// +235 //// 148011 012 010 000 01
181400 1305N 05437W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 153010 011 011 000 01
181430 1303N 05438W 9781 00259 //// +235 //// 151011 011 012 000 01
181500 1302N 05439W 9773 00269 //// +235 //// 157011 011 012 000 01
181530 1301N 05440W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 163011 012 012 000 01
181600 1300N 05441W 9771 00270 //// +235 //// 173011 011 015 000 05
181630 1259N 05442W 9771 00269 //// +235 //// 172011 012 013 000 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 171827
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 19 20170817
181700 1258N 05444W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 174011 012 012 000 01
181730 1257N 05445W 9772 00268 //// +235 //// 181011 011 013 000 01
181800 1257N 05446W 9777 00263 //// +235 //// 183011 012 016 000 01
181830 1256N 05447W 9773 00267 //// +235 //// 188011 012 013 000 01
181900 1255N 05449W 9773 00267 //// +235 //// 196011 011 010 000 01
181930 1254N 05450W 9775 00265 //// +235 //// 196011 012 013 000 01
182000 1253N 05451W 9778 00264 //// +234 //// 200009 010 013 000 01
182030 1252N 05453W 9772 00269 //// +235 //// 204010 011 012 000 01
182100 1252N 05454W 9773 00267 //// +235 //// 209010 010 013 000 01
182130 1251N 05455W 9775 00263 //// +235 //// 223011 012 015 000 01
182200 1251N 05457W 9772 00267 //// +236 //// 217011 012 015 000 01
182230 1250N 05458W 9776 00264 //// +235 //// 217012 013 014 000 01
182300 1250N 05500W 9774 00265 //// +235 //// 225013 014 016 000 05
182330 1249N 05501W 9774 00264 //// +234 //// 226013 014 012 000 01
182400 1249N 05502W 9776 00263 //// +234 //// 230013 014 015 000 05
182430 1248N 05504W 9769 00268 //// +235 //// 231013 013 017 000 01
182500 1247N 05505W 9774 00264 //// +233 //// 235012 013 013 000 01
182530 1247N 05506W 9772 00265 //// +235 //// 235013 013 013 000 01
182600 1246N 05508W 9772 00264 //// +235 //// 240013 013 013 000 01
182630 1246N 05509W 9774 00263 //// +235 //// 241013 014 015 000 01
$$
;
At least a broad center exists. Is it well defined?
URNT15 KNHC 171827
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 19 20170817
181700 1258N 05444W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 174011 012 012 000 01
181730 1257N 05445W 9772 00268 //// +235 //// 181011 011 013 000 01
181800 1257N 05446W 9777 00263 //// +235 //// 183011 012 016 000 01
181830 1256N 05447W 9773 00267 //// +235 //// 188011 012 013 000 01
181900 1255N 05449W 9773 00267 //// +235 //// 196011 011 010 000 01
181930 1254N 05450W 9775 00265 //// +235 //// 196011 012 013 000 01
182000 1253N 05451W 9778 00264 //// +234 //// 200009 010 013 000 01
182030 1252N 05453W 9772 00269 //// +235 //// 204010 011 012 000 01
182100 1252N 05454W 9773 00267 //// +235 //// 209010 010 013 000 01
182130 1251N 05455W 9775 00263 //// +235 //// 223011 012 015 000 01
182200 1251N 05457W 9772 00267 //// +236 //// 217011 012 015 000 01
182230 1250N 05458W 9776 00264 //// +235 //// 217012 013 014 000 01
182300 1250N 05500W 9774 00265 //// +235 //// 225013 014 016 000 05
182330 1249N 05501W 9774 00264 //// +234 //// 226013 014 012 000 01
182400 1249N 05502W 9776 00263 //// +234 //// 230013 014 015 000 05
182430 1248N 05504W 9769 00268 //// +235 //// 231013 013 017 000 01
182500 1247N 05505W 9774 00264 //// +233 //// 235012 013 013 000 01
182530 1247N 05506W 9772 00265 //// +235 //// 235013 013 013 000 01
182600 1246N 05508W 9772 00264 //// +235 //// 240013 013 013 000 01
182630 1246N 05509W 9774 00263 //// +235 //// 241013 014 015 000 01
$$
;
At least a broad center exists. Is it well defined?
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I wonder if they will upgrade at 5pm? It is definitely organizing today (actually more than I expected)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:MGC wrote:92L looks close to being a TC this afternoon. This is the one to watch for potential impacts on the USA....MGC
Agreed it is very close:
Agreed. Its starting to get the (comma) "look". It and PT9 are very close to being Tropical Cyclones with TS winds being measured now in PT9 via Recon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 171837
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 20 20170817
182700 1245N 05511W 9773 00264 //// +233 //// 243013 013 015 000 01
182730 1245N 05512W 9772 00264 //// +234 //// 243012 013 015 000 01
182800 1244N 05513W 9772 00265 //// +233 //// 246011 012 013 000 01
182830 1243N 05515W 9773 00265 //// +235 //// 248011 011 012 000 01
182900 1243N 05516W 9774 00264 //// +235 //// 255011 012 013 000 01
182930 1242N 05517W 9773 00265 0073 +235 +233 257012 012 013 000 00
183000 1242N 05519W 9774 00264 0073 +235 +234 260012 012 014 000 01
183030 1241N 05520W 9774 00265 //// +235 //// 259012 012 014 000 01
183100 1240N 05521W 9774 00267 //// +235 //// 263012 013 014 000 01
183130 1240N 05523W 9774 00265 0075 +235 +233 273012 013 015 000 01
183200 1240N 05523W 9774 00265 0076 +235 +232 271012 013 016 000 00
183230 1238N 05525W 9773 00269 0077 +235 +232 282010 011 015 000 00
183300 1238N 05527W 9774 00269 0078 +235 +232 295012 012 014 000 00
183330 1237N 05528W 9772 00270 0078 +235 +232 304014 015 014 000 00
183400 1236N 05530W 9774 00269 //// +235 //// 307015 015 017 000 01
183430 1236N 05531W 9772 00270 //// +235 //// 311016 017 018 000 01
183500 1235N 05532W 9774 00269 0079 +234 +233 314016 017 016 000 01
183530 1234N 05534W 9774 00269 //// +233 //// 315016 016 018 000 01
183600 1234N 05535W 9773 00270 //// +231 //// 309017 018 018 000 01
183630 1233N 05536W 9771 00273 //// +229 //// 304018 018 019 000 01
$$
;
It's closed. Now the punch of the core...
URNT15 KNHC 171837
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 20 20170817
182700 1245N 05511W 9773 00264 //// +233 //// 243013 013 015 000 01
182730 1245N 05512W 9772 00264 //// +234 //// 243012 013 015 000 01
182800 1244N 05513W 9772 00265 //// +233 //// 246011 012 013 000 01
182830 1243N 05515W 9773 00265 //// +235 //// 248011 011 012 000 01
182900 1243N 05516W 9774 00264 //// +235 //// 255011 012 013 000 01
182930 1242N 05517W 9773 00265 0073 +235 +233 257012 012 013 000 00
183000 1242N 05519W 9774 00264 0073 +235 +234 260012 012 014 000 01
183030 1241N 05520W 9774 00265 //// +235 //// 259012 012 014 000 01
183100 1240N 05521W 9774 00267 //// +235 //// 263012 013 014 000 01
183130 1240N 05523W 9774 00265 0075 +235 +233 273012 013 015 000 01
183200 1240N 05523W 9774 00265 0076 +235 +232 271012 013 016 000 00
183230 1238N 05525W 9773 00269 0077 +235 +232 282010 011 015 000 00
183300 1238N 05527W 9774 00269 0078 +235 +232 295012 012 014 000 00
183330 1237N 05528W 9772 00270 0078 +235 +232 304014 015 014 000 00
183400 1236N 05530W 9774 00269 //// +235 //// 307015 015 017 000 01
183430 1236N 05531W 9772 00270 //// +235 //// 311016 017 018 000 01
183500 1235N 05532W 9774 00269 0079 +234 +233 314016 017 016 000 01
183530 1234N 05534W 9774 00269 //// +233 //// 315016 016 018 000 01
183600 1234N 05535W 9773 00270 //// +231 //// 309017 018 018 000 01
183630 1233N 05536W 9771 00273 //// +229 //// 304018 018 019 000 01
$$
;
It's closed. Now the punch of the core...
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I think they will wait to see how 92L sustains convection over the next 24 hours. There is no need to issue a PTC advisory for 92L since it is not in close proximity to land and warnings are not needing to be issued at this time. I'd look for the percentages to bump up on the TWO tonight and then possibly the trigger get pulled by tomorrow afternoon if it still looks good. As I said earlier, the GFS and Euro is probably also giving the NHC some pause.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Up to 60/60:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to
show signs of organization. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward
at near 20 mph. After that, upper-level winds are expected to
become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Notice the NHC 5 day (120 hrs) ends SE Bahamas... GFS/Euro at 120 hrs are near/over FL coast, @200+ mile difference... HWRF ended at @126 hrs in SE Bahamas... Forget intensity, seems the NHC not buying the speed the GFS/Euro are selling... Maybe I'm wrong?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 171847
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 21 20170817
183700 1233N 05538W 9772 00270 //// +227 //// 309017 018 020 001 05
183730 1232N 05539W 9775 00269 //// +232 //// 310017 017 021 000 01
183800 1231N 05541W 9774 00270 //// +231 //// 305018 019 020 000 01
183830 1230N 05542W 9772 00274 0081 +231 +230 309019 019 021 000 01
183900 1230N 05543W 9773 00274 0082 +228 +228 303018 020 022 000 01
183930 1229N 05544W 9774 00271 //// +227 //// 300020 021 023 000 05
184000 1229N 05546W 9768 00277 //// +227 //// 298019 021 /// /// 05
184030 1230N 05546W 9772 00274 //// +230 //// 289020 021 /// /// 05
184100 1230N 05544W 9771 00275 //// +226 //// 286022 023 022 000 01
184130 1230N 05542W 9779 00267 //// +229 //// 290020 021 023 000 01
184200 1230N 05541W 9772 00274 //// +230 //// 297019 020 023 000 01
184230 1230N 05539W 9775 00270 //// +231 //// 300018 019 021 000 01
184300 1229N 05537W 9773 00270 0079 +234 +232 299018 019 021 000 00
184330 1229N 05535W 9772 00271 0079 +234 +231 295016 017 020 000 00
184400 1228N 05534W 9772 00273 0079 +234 +233 289016 018 021 000 00
184430 1228N 05532W 9771 00271 0079 +234 +232 286019 020 021 000 01
184500 1228N 05530W 9772 00270 //// +235 //// 283018 018 021 000 01
184530 1228N 05529W 9772 00270 //// +235 //// 280018 019 020 000 01
184600 1227N 05527W 9773 00268 //// +235 //// 277018 018 020 000 01
184630 1227N 05525W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 277016 017 018 000 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 171847
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 21 20170817
183700 1233N 05538W 9772 00270 //// +227 //// 309017 018 020 001 05
183730 1232N 05539W 9775 00269 //// +232 //// 310017 017 021 000 01
183800 1231N 05541W 9774 00270 //// +231 //// 305018 019 020 000 01
183830 1230N 05542W 9772 00274 0081 +231 +230 309019 019 021 000 01
183900 1230N 05543W 9773 00274 0082 +228 +228 303018 020 022 000 01
183930 1229N 05544W 9774 00271 //// +227 //// 300020 021 023 000 05
184000 1229N 05546W 9768 00277 //// +227 //// 298019 021 /// /// 05
184030 1230N 05546W 9772 00274 //// +230 //// 289020 021 /// /// 05
184100 1230N 05544W 9771 00275 //// +226 //// 286022 023 022 000 01
184130 1230N 05542W 9779 00267 //// +229 //// 290020 021 023 000 01
184200 1230N 05541W 9772 00274 //// +230 //// 297019 020 023 000 01
184230 1230N 05539W 9775 00270 //// +231 //// 300018 019 021 000 01
184300 1229N 05537W 9773 00270 0079 +234 +232 299018 019 021 000 00
184330 1229N 05535W 9772 00271 0079 +234 +231 295016 017 020 000 00
184400 1228N 05534W 9772 00273 0079 +234 +233 289016 018 021 000 00
184430 1228N 05532W 9771 00271 0079 +234 +232 286019 020 021 000 01
184500 1228N 05530W 9772 00270 //// +235 //// 283018 018 021 000 01
184530 1228N 05529W 9772 00270 //// +235 //// 280018 019 020 000 01
184600 1227N 05527W 9773 00268 //// +235 //// 277018 018 020 000 01
184630 1227N 05525W 9774 00268 //// +235 //// 277016 017 018 000 01
$$
;
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
If they wait for recon before they pull the trigger maybe that model spread will shrink a little.
This one has me scratching my head, I know its unlikely a trough is going to dig as far south as the Bahamas but even a slight weakness can change the track enough to move a potentially bad landfall by hundreds of miles.
Tentative mission for Saturday afternoon.
PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 19/1800Z NEAR 19.5 59.5W
(NE OF PUERTO RICO)
This one has me scratching my head, I know its unlikely a trough is going to dig as far south as the Bahamas but even a slight weakness can change the track enough to move a potentially bad landfall by hundreds of miles.
Tentative mission for Saturday afternoon.
PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 19/1800Z NEAR 19.5 59.5W
(NE OF PUERTO RICO)
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