ATL: TEN - Models

[BigB0882]

If you extend those runs out, where is the steering going to send this? Would it continue West to Texas? Would we see it begin to curve up to the Gulf coast? If so, would that likely happen along the Central gulf coast or more towards the Florida panhandle? I don't know if the ridge is building or retreating or if any troughs are coming through.

[sma10]

So we all agree there are two camps (development vs non-development). What i ask the experts is: what are the "on-the-ground" differences between the two camps? In other words, what does the Euro/GFS see that is different than the UK/CMC/HWRF? Is it shear? Dry air? Because the difference is STARK. The Euro and GFS literally dissipate a westward moving tropical cyclone in the Bahamas in late August, which is a fairly unusual scenario. Weaken - yes, perhaps, but completely dissipate?

[SouthFLTropics]

If you extend those runs out, where is the steering going to send this? Would it continue West to Texas? Would we see it begin to curve up to the Gulf coast? If so, would that likely happen along the Central gulf coast or more towards the Florida panhandle? I don't know if the ridge is building or retreating or if any troughs are coming through.

My best guess based on what we've seen so far would be NOLA and points further east. Too far out to say that it won't make it to Texas but with a digging trough over the Midwest it should turn towards the North Gulf Coast.

[jlauderdal]

So we have two camps it seems:

Euro and GFS say nada
CMC/UKMET/NAVGEM/HWRF say anywhere from a TS to Hurricane

We shall see who is right

one thing they can all agree on is general track...interesting to see gfs and euro aligned as they are often times at odds seeing the setup differently..if they were aligned on hurricane status we would all be saying get the shutters ready

I'd be asking you to enable your South Florida hurricane shield jlauderdale...Fire up the generator.

hurricane shield only when needed, you know the drill...i did take my own advice from a post i did a few days ago and started it up, hadnt run it since april, its locked and loaded

i cant recall this scenario where gfs and euro werent biting yet nhc was increasing the percentages...anyone remember where both globals agreed and nhc went against it?

the scenario usually doesnt play out just because gfs and euro are on opposite sides so there is at least one for nhc to alighn with

[SouthFLTropics]

It is very unusual. I'd have to do some serious digging to find a time when the GFS and Euro agreed in lockstep AND the NHC completely ignored both of them. I can't recall such a situation. In the end, perhaps the new GFS and the Euro are all smarter than all of us. But at the moment I can't go against what we are currently seeing on satellite as well as the fact that climatology says that in mid to late August...watch out.

[AutoPenalti]

It is very unusual. I'd have to do some serious digging to find a time when the GFS and Euro agreed in lockstep AND the NHC completely ignored both of them. I can't recall such a situation. In the end, perhaps the new GFS and the Euro are all smarter than all of us. But at the moment I can't go against what we are currently seeing on satellite as well as the fact that climatology says that in mid to late August...watch out.

GFS and the Euro have been wrong since their upgrades. It's sad that we are having to rely on the ensembles which have more variability to the account. GFS in particular really needs to address the issue of upper conditions.

[Bocadude85]

What's interesting to me is that the UKMET hasn't dropped development..usually the UKMET would follow suit and drop development when the Euro dropped development. Also interesting to me is that the HWRF is strengthening 92L in the Bahamas when the last several runs showed no development...something tells me this situation is going to be very similar to the genesis of Gert.

[gatorcane]

18Z guidance hot of the press. Intensity guidance going up.

[SouthFLTropics]

What's interesting to me is that the UKMET hasn't dropped development..usually the UKMET would follow suit and drop development when the Euro dropped development. Also interesting to me is that the HWRF is strengthening 92L in the Bahamas when the last several runs showed no development...something tells me this situation is going to be very similar to the genesis of Gert.

Agreed...I think we can look to Gert for a good analog as far as how the models performed. If that is the case then the GFS and Euro almost have to be weighted much lower at this time...At least until something actually is formed and good recon data is ingested into them.

[gatorcane]

SFWMD models with TVCN right through Miami-Dade:

[Bocadude85]

18Z guidance hot of the press. Intensity guidance going up.

That's the highest intensity guidance I have seen for 92L

[caneseddy]

18Z guidance hot of the press. Intensity guidance going up.

That's the highest intensity guidance I have seen for 92L

And a shift north with the majority over south Florida; earlier most were in the Straits/Cuba

[SFLcane]

Not liking that trend on intensity guidance..

[Steve]

Not liking that trend on intensity guidance..

Levi isn't necessarily buying it due to the future interaction with 2 Upper Level Lows. He makes some good points. That's the back part of today's video on tropical tidbits.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS Ensembles cluster around the tip of South Florida next Thursday and turn north after that.

[jlauderdal]

Not liking that trend on intensity guidance..

yesterday it went in the other direction and i promptly posted look for it to increase and here we are, conditions seem too favorable down the road but you need an actual system to optimize the favorable conditions, right now we have an invest heading into a shear zone..in addition, expect the unexpected around the mona passage, direction changes, stalls, inflow issues you name it we have seen it in that area which has all worked to our advantage in the united states for years

[jlauderdal]

Not liking that trend on intensity guidance..

Levi isn't necessarily buying it due to the future interaction with 2 Upper Level Lows. He makes some good points. That's the back part of today's video on tropical tidbits.

i highly recommend that anyone not viewing levis videos do so and continue to view them as they are released...you could review no other content and have a full understanding of the current situation and future scenarios, its free and its unbiased

[Blown Away]

TVCN says Miami... Intensity models definite increase...

[Bocadude85]

Not liking that trend on intensity guidance..

yesterday it went in the other direction and i promptly posted look for it to increase and here we are, conditions seem too favorable down the road but you need an actual system to optimize the favorable conditions, right now we have an invest heading into a shear zone..in addition, expect the unexpected around the mona passage, direction changes, stalls, inflow issues you name it we have seen it in that area which has all worked to our advantage in the united states for years

Judging by the 18z guidance this looks to pass far enough north of Hispaniola/Mona/Winward passage to not be effected. Of course that all could change.

[Kingarabian]

Not liking that trend on intensity guidance..

yesterday it went in the other direction and i promptly posted look for it to increase and here we are, conditions seem too favorable down the road but you need an actual system to optimize the favorable conditions, right now we have an invest heading into a shear zone..in addition, expect the unexpected around the mona passage, direction changes, stalls, inflow issues you name it we have seen it in that area which has all worked to our advantage in the united states for years

Judging by the 18z guidance this looks to pass far enough north of Hispaniola/Mona/Winward passage to not be effected. Of course that all could change.

Per the models, think there's some other prohibitive factor that will not allow this to develop despite the area being a TC hotspot.