ATL: TEN - Models

[JPmia]

I'm not superstitious or anything, BUT 92L will be around the South FL area near the 25th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which struck Homestead/southern Miami-Dade County in 1992. Oh, and current models would suggest the same path again..

[Nimbus]

The TUTT that is currently swinging south will likely provide some shear so that may keep 92L weak a little longer than forecast. Think the models would come back south if it doesn't spin up.

[RL3AO]

What gets me is not so much the lack of significant development by the GFS but it's insistence that the vorticity pretty much dissipates. Really? it did the same thing with Gert, no yellow showed up on the vorticity chart a few runs before it showed it as a hurricane.

I'm becoming more convinced that the changes made to the convective parameterization scheme have caused many of the problems we're seeing.

[jlauderdal]

Not liking that trend on intensity guidance..

yesterday it went in the other direction and i promptly posted look for it to increase and here we are, conditions seem too favorable down the road but you need an actual system to optimize the favorable conditions, right now we have an invest heading into a shear zone..in addition, expect the unexpected around the mona passage, direction changes, stalls, inflow issues you name it we have seen it in that area which has all worked to our advantage in the united states for years

Judging by the 18z guidance this looks to pass far enough north of Hispaniola/Mona/Winward passage to not be effected. Of course that all could change.

looks like shear is the best chance to keep this thing in check...will see

[hd44]

Conditions favor rapid intensification somewhere near the Florida straights. Could see a major out of this one.

[ronjon]

Forward speed might be an issue on track with most of the dynamical guidance bringing 92L close to the Gold Coast a little after 5 days and some of the globals a full day later.

[Bocadude85]

Conditions favor rapid intensification somewhere near the Florida straights. Could see a major out of this one.

Looking at the models I still think the most likely scenario is a mid range TS..with a outside chance of a Cat 1.

[floridasun78]

Intensifying TC headed for SFL...https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=92L&pkg=satIR&runtime=2017081712&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=495

hope not see that on my front door i be like wha!!!!!!!! will make weather man here go nut

[Steve]

Conditions favor rapid intensification somewhere near the Florida straights. Could see a major out of this one.

If (big ole "IF") it can get by the upper systems and slow down either in/near the Bahamas, FL Straights or SE/E Gulf, I think you could be right. It's a small system, and I think it's sort of a parallel or twin with 91L. It also might not do much. I think it looks pretty good today and currently has convection near the center on the increase. It's really small though. Small storms can go either way sometimes getting whacked by bigger environmental players and sometimes being able to eek out strengthening in an area where it doesn't appear possible due to their smaller size. With the major globals most likely useless right now for 91 & 92, we don't really have much of a depiction outside of the Hurricane models of whether or not 92L is going to get much bigger. I'd bet against it though obviously if it matures, it could take on a larger area of influence.

[hd44]

Conditions favor rapid intensification somewhere near the Florida straights. Could see a major out of this one.

Looking at the models I still think the most likely scenario is a mid range TS..with a outside chance of a Cat 1.

Ukmet is quite a bit more intense at day 7 near hurricane intensity.

Shear should be low .

[Kingarabian]

25kts is a lot of shear if the system is a weak.

[AutoPenalti]

Conditions favor rapid intensification somewhere near the Florida straights. Could see a major out of this one.

Looking at the models I still think the most likely scenario is a mid range TS..with a outside chance of a Cat 1.

Ukmet is quite a bit more intense at day 7 near hurricane intensity.

Shear should be low .

That area in particular is favorable... but not so much the shear. Although it seems that it may die down after a couple of days.

[hd44]

We will see.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it possible that the GFS and Euro are performing poorly in the Western/SW Atlantic region since the upgrades?

[Bocadude85]

We will see.

I like the UKMET..it's one of the models that has been consistent with showing development with 92L...

[jlauderdal]

Conditions favor rapid intensification somewhere near the Florida straights. Could see a major out of this one.

whoa..intensity is difficult enough let alone RI, lets take it easy on the powder keg

[Bocadude85]

Is it possible that the GFS and Euro are performing poorly in the Western/SW Atlantic region since the upgrades?

Just look back at Gert...that should answer your question.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it possible that the GFS and Euro are performing poorly in the Western/SW Atlantic region since the upgrades?

Just look back at Gert...that should answer your question.

But that is just one storm where this issue has occurred so far, but this is likely the case with these two models since the upgrade.

[TheStormExpert]

yesterday it went in the other direction and i promptly posted look for it to increase and here we are, conditions seem too favorable down the road but you need an actual system to optimize the favorable conditions, right now we have an invest heading into a shear zone..in addition, expect the unexpected around the mona passage, direction changes, stalls, inflow issues you name it we have seen it in that area which has all worked to our advantage in the united states for years

Judging by the 18z guidance this looks to pass far enough north of Hispaniola/Mona/Winward passage to not be effected. Of course that all could change.

Per the models, think there's some other prohibitive factor that will not allow this to develop despite the area being a TC hotspot.

Do you happen to know what that other prohibitive factor might be?

[FLpanhandle91]

Nervous about this one. I know it's just CMC, but that's a strengthening cat 3 right in my back yard AFTER a huge interaction with Cuba. If this system finds the straits, it's going to be a terrible situation.