ATL: HARVEY - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#521 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:12 pm

12Z Euro still dissipates after the islands.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#522 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:16 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#523 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:30 pm

Similar to the previous run except slower, regeneration near the coast.

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#524 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:52 pm

Huge shift north
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#525 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:53 pm

976mb near Tampico on the EC
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#526 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:00 pm

Aly, that's more north right ?
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stormreader

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#527 Postby stormreader » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:07 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Huge shift north


Definitely further north than runs a couple of days ago. But still, at this point, no threat to the USA. Bears watching.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#528 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:08 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Aly, that's more north right ?


yeah, ec shifted north
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#529 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:11 pm

By how many miles u think ?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#530 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:16 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:By how many miles u think ?

200 maybe 300
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#531 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:43 pm

12Z NAVGEM shifted north as well
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stormreader

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#532 Postby stormreader » Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:44 pm

Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:By how many miles u think ?

200 maybe 300

The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#533 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:46 pm

stormreader wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:By how many miles u think ?

200 maybe 300

The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.

Models seem to be trending North
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stormreader

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#534 Postby stormreader » Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:48 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z NAVGEM shifted north as well

My hunch is that it won't shift back south either (going to have some northerly component in the Caribbean).
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stormreader

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#535 Postby stormreader » Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:55 pm

Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
stormreader wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:200 maybe 300

The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.

Models seem to be trending North

Yeah, wondering about the GOM. Franklin was forced back west (and even south of west) in the GOM. Interesting to see the angle it takes in the Yucatan area. We will be in late August when "potential Harvey" arrives in GOM (if forecast bears out). Depends on conditions, but I think climo would call for at least some northerly component in the GOM if it makes a central to north Yucatan crossing. Not necessarily, but more likely than Franklin.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#536 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:00 pm

stormreader wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
stormreader wrote:The northerly shift is significant. Has to be noted. It is the Euro. And we're still many many days from a potential entry into the GOM.

Models seem to be trending North

Yeah, wondering about the GOM. Franklin was forced back west (and even south of west) in the GOM. Interesting to see the angle it takes in the Yucatan area. We will be in late August when "potential Harvey" arrives in GOM (if forecast bears out). Depends on conditions, but I think climo would call for at least some northerly component in the GOM if it makes a central to north Yucatan crossing. Not necessarily, but more likely than Franklin.

Some models like the EURO show a very complex steering pattern at day 5 through 8 which can slow the system and maybe even stall it !
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#537 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:05 pm

I'm looking closer at the GFS and trying to figure out why it opens up the system into a wave.

Image
Image

I'm perplexed. We have a tropical storm entering the Caribbean with ever increasing mid-level moisture, decreasing shear, and an unstable environment. Even the VP anomalies show divergence over the Caribbean in the GFS forecast.

It appears to be producing limited convection unlike the waves in the eastern Atlantic which it has been over-doing convection with. I'm lost. Any other mets have an idea?
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hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#538 Postby hd44 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:09 pm

Image
Gfs shows northerly shear, all be it light. I agree this system probably will degenerate and then re form.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#539 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:10 pm

The Euro weakens it to an open wave in the central Caribbean, closing it off again in the gulf of Honduras, so both the Euro and GFS don't like it. Perhaps to fast a forward speed?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#540 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:11 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:The Euro also weakens it to an open wave in the central Caribbean, closing it off again in the gulf of Honduras, so both the Euro and GFS don't like it. Perhaps to fast a forward speed?
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