ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

miami weeather alway worry when system form east miami their strong high to north and expend to fl

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Worrisome track, but destructive shear will keep it in check, IMO.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172057
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 34 20170817
204700 1351N 05453W 8432 01578 0105 +175 +168 114028 028 027 000 00
204730 1352N 05452W 8430 01579 0104 +174 +169 114028 029 027 000 00
204800 1353N 05451W 8432 01578 0102 +179 +170 113029 030 026 000 00
204830 1354N 05450W 8432 01581 0104 +174 +171 117028 029 025 000 01
204900 1355N 05449W 8432 01578 //// +168 //// 114029 029 026 000 01
204930 1356N 05447W 8430 01581 //// +166 //// 112029 030 024 001 05
205000 1358N 05447W 8424 01588 //// +175 //// 107029 030 /// /// 05
205030 1359N 05448W 8432 01578 0103 +176 +170 103030 030 026 000 00
205100 1359N 05450W 8434 01577 0105 +176 +170 103030 030 027 000 01
205130 1359N 05452W 8432 01581 //// +171 //// 105032 033 027 000 01
205200 1400N 05454W 8430 01582 0104 +175 +173 103032 033 029 000 01
205230 1401N 05456W 8430 01582 0104 +178 +169 102033 033 028 000 01
205300 1401N 05458W 8433 01581 0105 +178 +173 105033 034 027 001 00
205330 1402N 05500W 8433 01579 0105 +176 +172 106032 034 029 000 01
205400 1402N 05501W 8433 01579 0105 +178 +169 104033 034 028 001 00
205430 1403N 05503W 8431 01581 0107 +174 +172 104033 034 031 001 00
205500 1403N 05505W 8432 01581 0105 +173 +172 105033 035 031 001 01
205530 1404N 05507W 8432 01581 0104 +175 +169 102036 036 030 000 00
205600 1404N 05509W 8430 01581 0104 +175 +169 098037 037 031 000 00
205630 1405N 05511W 8433 01576 0102 +175 +173 096037 037 030 000 01
$$
;

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Watching this one. Concern is that the upper level lows expected to be in the general vicinity to affect this system next week, depending on timing and location, could actually serve to help vent the system while it is over very warm waters instead of apply persistent shear levels that would help inhibit any intensification.

Of course the other discussion, IF this does ramp up and become a CONUS threat (likely for Florida at some point), does it ride up the east coast, spine, or west coast of the state. It may be able to get into the GOM and eventually to the central north coast. This far out, the models seem to have a bias for early northward trajectories that often still eventually occur, they just happen later in the storm's life than the initial poleward prediction. Hopefully by Sunday night we will have a much better idea of the synoptics in place around the Straits, the existing shear levels and locations of the upper lows, and the current strength, speed, and motion of Invest 92 by then.

[Steve H.]

Let's see how far south the ULL to it's north will dive.

[stormreader]

Just judging by the eyes, 92l already looks as though it's heading for the keys. In same pic as Harvey.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172107
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 35 20170817
205700 1405N 05513W 8432 01577 0100 +175 +171 098036 037 031 000 00
205730 1406N 05515W 8430 01578 0101 +175 +171 099038 038 031 000 00
205800 1406N 05517W 8433 01573 0098 +175 +170 099038 039 030 000 00
205830 1407N 05519W 8432 01576 0099 +176 +169 098039 040 033 002 00
205900 1408N 05521W 8433 01573 0113 +174 //// 096038 038 034 008 01
205930 1408N 05523W 8429 01578 0112 +182 +182 091041 042 036 006 00
210000 1409N 05525W 8436 01570 //// +169 //// 092039 040 035 001 01
210030 1409N 05527W 8432 01575 //// +175 //// 089038 038 035 000 01
210100 1410N 05529W 8430 01576 //// +177 //// 090037 038 035 002 01
210130 1410N 05530W 8430 01577 //// +175 //// 089038 038 033 001 01
210200 1411N 05532W 8433 01573 //// +173 //// 091039 039 033 000 01
210230 1411N 05534W 8432 01576 0102 +172 +168 085040 041 032 000 01
210300 1412N 05536W 8429 01577 0102 +174 +165 085040 041 032 000 00
210330 1412N 05538W 8432 01576 0100 +175 +165 083038 040 033 000 00
210400 1413N 05540W 8433 01573 0100 +175 +161 081038 038 032 000 03
210430 1413N 05542W 8429 01578 0100 +175 +160 082037 038 031 000 00
210500 1413N 05544W 8432 01575 0100 +176 +164 082037 038 030 001 00
210530 1413N 05546W 8432 01576 0099 +175 +165 082037 038 033 000 00
210600 1413N 05548W 8432 01576 0101 +176 +164 082037 038 034 000 00
210630 1412N 05550W 8430 01577 0102 +173 +164 082038 039 030 001 03
$$
;

[jlauderdal]

Yes, looks like it's Florida bound. The ever present trough that protects you is gone. But, it takes the Carolina's out of it because the trough doesn't bring it our way.
So I guess there is a silver lining (if you live in the Carolina's).

You might get something when it ejects ne eventually
..slow moving huge rain oroducer

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

View of convection burst as sun goes down:

[SouthFLTropics]

That's an impressive blowup of convection near the center. Let's see if it maintains and expands it or if it gets blown off by the ULL to it's north.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172117
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 36 20170817
210700 1413N 05552W 8432 01576 0102 +174 +166 083039 039 029 000 00
210730 1413N 05554W 8432 01576 0103 +173 +167 081039 039 030 000 00
210800 1414N 05556W 8432 01575 0102 +170 +167 082040 040 029 000 00
210830 1414N 05558W 8432 01576 0100 +175 +165 084040 041 030 000 00
210900 1415N 05600W 8430 01577 0101 +175 +166 084041 041 030 000 00
210930 1415N 05602W 8433 01575 0102 +175 +166 088041 041 029 000 00
211000 1416N 05604W 8433 01576 0101 +177 +165 087042 042 030 000 00
211030 1417N 05606W 8438 01569 0099 +177 +168 085042 043 031 000 00
211100 1418N 05607W 8429 01579 0102 +173 +165 082040 040 029 000 01
211130 1419N 05609W 8433 01575 //// +163 //// 081039 040 029 000 01
211200 1420N 05611W 8427 01582 0104 +171 +167 082040 041 028 000 01
211230 1421N 05612W 8429 01579 0105 +169 +168 084040 040 027 000 05
211300 1422N 05614W 8430 01577 0105 +170 +168 082039 040 026 000 05
211330 1421N 05615W 8433 01576 //// +170 //// 080038 038 /// /// 05
211400 1419N 05615W 8428 01581 //// +168 //// 078036 037 029 000 05
211430 1418N 05614W 8432 01576 0106 +168 +166 080038 039 029 000 01
211500 1416N 05614W 8428 01581 0103 +175 +161 083040 040 028 000 00
211530 1415N 05614W 8433 01575 0100 +177 +161 084039 040 028 000 00
211600 1413N 05614W 8431 01576 0098 +181 +157 082039 039 029 000 00
211630 1411N 05614W 8430 01576 0098 +175 +163 081039 039 030 001 01
$$
;

Someone else please take over...

[SouthFLTropics]

If it keeps looking like this I'll place my bet in that NHC will bump up odds at 8:00PM to 70/80.

[otowntiger]

Worrisome track, but destructive shear will keep it in check, IMO.

And dry, dusty air, and a TUTT and potential land interaction...you name it.

[hd44]

A scatterometer pass would help. This sure looks like a tropical depression right now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

92L's almost definitely either a tropical cyclone now, or very, very close to becoming one. Again though, very bleak future.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS show hardly anything when the vorticity map shows a whole lot more vorticity so it looks like the GFS is garbage on this system

[alienstorm]

You can the blowoff on the northern side as cirrus streak off to the ene

[JaxGator]

92L's almost definitely either a tropical cyclone now, or very, very close to becoming one. Again though, very bleak future.

Do you mean on how much the UL moves toward 92L in regards to shear?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172147
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 39 20170817
213700 1303N 05609W 8430 01559 0065 +202 +158 059025 026 026 000 00
213730 1301N 05608W 8433 01555 0064 +203 +159 053023 025 025 000 00
213800 1300N 05607W 8430 01556 0063 +200 +168 039019 023 024 000 00
213830 1258N 05606W 8436 01550 0065 +190 +180 028010 016 021 000 00
213900 1257N 05605W 8429 01557 0069 +181 +181 016007 009 020 000 05
213930 1257N 05603W 8433 01550 0068 +184 +173 350007 008 017 000 03
214000 1257N 05602W 8427 01557 0067 +186 +175 279003 007 012 000 03
214030 1257N 05600W 8434 01550 0054 +206 +164 144008 011 015 000 00
214100 1258N 05559W 8432 01557 0048 +226 +154 151017 019 017 000 03
214130 1258N 05557W 8433 01557 0051 +226 +153 159016 017 /// /// 03
214200 1257N 05557W 8425 01565 0054 +220 +159 178015 016 015 000 00
214230 1255N 05557W 8434 01554 0061 +207 +172 189016 017 026 000 00
214300 1253N 05557W 8430 01559 0068 +192 +183 202014 016 028 000 00
214330 1252N 05557W 8430 01562 0074 +189 +182 213013 013 027 000 00
214400 1250N 05557W 8430 01564 //// +183 //// 230012 012 026 000 01
214430 1249N 05557W 8429 01566 //// +175 //// 240011 012 026 000 01
214500 1247N 05557W 8433 01565 //// +175 //// 244009 011 029 001 01
214530 1245N 05557W 8433 01564 //// +177 //// 238011 012 025 000 01
214600 1244N 05557W 8432 01567 0090 +177 +166 247011 011 022 000 00
214630 1242N 05557W 8432 01568 0092 +179 +156 241011 012 020 000 00
$$
;

Back and catching up.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 172047 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 17/20:20:50Z
B. 12 deg 54 min N
055 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. 37 kt
E. 090 deg 0 nm
F. 068 deg 36 kt
G. 333 deg 68 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 18 C / 1532 m
J. 20 C / 1516 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0109A INVEST OB 16 CCA
MAX FL WIND 36 KT 333 / 68 NM 19:50:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 250 / 26 KT
;