ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

72 Hours

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

Harvey is an open wave i guess....

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 84 hrs maybe a slight improvement and SW compared to 12z...

[SouthFLTropics]

At 102 hours the environment looks pretty good to me...

[tolakram]

Negative, GFS says vorticity spreads out for over a hundred miles. Next frame is even worse. May I eat a good double serving of crow for saying this is complete and total nonsense.

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing is for sure...the GFS and Euro are all in on this no development bandwagon. They're either going to be heroes or they're going down in flames.

At least they agree with each other and there's no GFS vs. Euro battle going on.

[tolakram]

[wxmann_91]

Do you happen to know what that other prohibitive factor might be?

NASA model has a moderately thick dust layer reaching the straits/Bahamas in 120-144 hours. Combine that with 20-25kts of shear and a very weak vort after it interacts with the TUTT and it would make sense for the system to remain weak.

If you believe the GFS shear forecast then yes 25kts is a lot of shear to over come, but at the same time SHIPS has shear below 10kts.

FYI, the SHIPS shear readings are based off the GFS shear forecasts.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

NASA model has a moderately thick dust layer reaching the straits/Bahamas in 120-144 hours. Combine that with 20-25kts of shear and a very weak vort after it interacts with the TUTT and it would make sense for the system to remain weak.

If you believe the GFS shear forecast then yes 25kts is a lot of shear to over come, but at the same time SHIPS has shear below 10kts.

FYI, the SHIPS shear readings are based off the GFS shear forecasts.

Which automaticly makes them incorrect IMO

[hd44]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2017081712/hwrf-p_shear_92L_43.png
See hwrf shear forecast .

[SouthFLTropics]

Mark can you briefly explain what we are looking at here?

[tolakram]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/M3bVXfO.png[/img]

Mark can you briefly explain what we are looking at here?

Nope, just saving for someone else to comment. It appears to me low shear, decent humidity, and then I run out of things I know about these graphs.

[SouthFLTropics]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/M3bVXfO.png[/img]

Mark can you briefly explain what we are looking at here?

Nope, just saving for someone else to comment. It appears to me low shear, decent humidity, and then I run out of things I know about these graphs.

I'm glad I'm not the only one...that graph is above my pay grade!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

This is getting laughable. 186 hours on the GFS 92L looks to be making a run at the Central Texas coast...and organizing no less.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 192...All my exes live in Texas!!!

[Nimbus]

You can see the upper level low quite clearly with 30 frames of this loop.
Hope it doesn't decide to just ventilate 92L till it reaches hurricane status.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[p1nheadlarry]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/M3bVXfO.png[/img]

Mark can you briefly explain what we are looking at here?

Nope, just saving for someone else to comment. It appears to me low shear, decent humidity, and then I run out of things I know about these graphs.

Negative CIN is usually good for thunderstorm formation, and high CAPE values.

I don't know what a wetbulb is though. Lol

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is rolling in right now...Need to look at around 78 hours for strengthening to begin.

[gatorcane]

HWRF is rolling in right now...Need to look at around 78 hours for strengthening to begin.

Even at 42 hours, the convection is vigorous: