ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

If anyone is curious, the red circle is where the new upper low that the models show moving westward with 92L is going to develop this evening.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172157
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 40 20170817
214700 1241N 05558W 8435 01566 0090 +180 +147 223012 012 020 000 00
214730 1239N 05558W 8430 01571 0092 +180 +148 222011 012 019 000 00
214800 1237N 05558W 8432 01570 0095 +180 +147 223010 010 019 000 00
214830 1236N 05558W 8429 01573 0094 +180 +150 218010 010 019 000 00
214900 1234N 05558W 8434 01568 0093 +180 +156 210008 009 018 000 00
214930 1233N 05558W 8433 01570 0093 +180 +158 213008 008 018 000 00
215000 1231N 05558W 8433 01571 0092 +182 +157 219007 007 018 000 00
215030 1229N 05558W 8430 01572 0091 +183 +158 233007 008 018 000 00
215100 1228N 05558W 8433 01570 0092 +181 +159 248009 010 017 000 00
215130 1226N 05558W 8431 01573 0097 +176 +160 257010 011 017 000 00
215200 1224N 05558W 8433 01572 0097 +177 +158 256010 011 017 000 00
215230 1223N 05558W 8430 01573 0098 +175 +158 257008 010 017 000 00
215300 1221N 05558W 8432 01573 0100 +175 +159 246008 008 017 000 00
215330 1220N 05558W 8433 01571 0099 +173 +158 237007 007 017 000 00
215400 1218N 05558W 8431 01573 0097 +178 +153 243006 007 017 000 00
215430 1216N 05559W 8429 01576 0096 +180 +144 239007 007 018 000 03
215500 1215N 05559W 8435 01570 0098 +177 +146 238008 009 016 000 00
215530 1213N 05559W 8431 01576 0101 +173 +157 247011 012 018 000 03
215600 1211N 05559W 8435 01570 //// +159 //// 256010 012 021 001 01
215630 1210N 05559W 8433 01573 0103 +170 +155 263009 009 019 000 03
$$
;

[tgenius]

If anyone is curious, the red circle is where the new upper low that the models show moving westward with 92L is going to develop this evening.

That's the one that should prevent the development or is that one that will charge it?

[ronjon]

Worrisome track, but destructive shear will keep it in check, IMO.

Not sure about destructive shear. Latest forecast is less than 20 kts dropping to 5kts days 4 and 5 from now.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

If anyone is curious, the red circle is where the new upper low that the models show moving westward with 92L is going to develop this evening.

Great image... Wouldn't the SHIPS shear forecast correlate with that new upper low? SHIPS shear forecast have been going down today?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172207
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 41 20170817
215700 1208N 05559W 8432 01574 0103 +170 +151 267010 012 018 000 00
215730 1206N 05559W 8433 01573 0105 +170 +153 272012 013 018 000 00
215800 1205N 05559W 8432 01574 0105 +169 +156 274013 014 017 000 00
215830 1203N 05559W 8430 01576 0102 +175 +150 267013 014 017 000 00
215900 1201N 05559W 8430 01577 0102 +175 +141 265013 014 016 000 00
215930 1200N 05559W 8433 01573 0102 +175 +138 265014 014 017 000 00
220000 1158N 05559W 8430 01577 0105 +175 +141 263014 014 015 000 00
220030 1157N 05559W 8428 01579 0104 +172 +143 256013 014 016 000 00
220100 1155N 05559W 8429 01578 0105 +170 +141 256013 014 016 000 00
220130 1153N 05600W 8432 01577 0107 +173 +132 258014 014 016 000 03
220200 1152N 05600W 8430 01578 0107 +171 +131 258014 015 015 000 00
220230 1150N 05600W 8434 01576 0108 +170 +134 252014 014 015 000 00
220300 1148N 05600W 8432 01578 0109 +170 +137 252013 014 015 000 00
220330 1147N 05600W 8431 01578 0109 +170 +137 251012 013 015 000 00
220400 1145N 05600W 8432 01578 0108 +172 +136 255013 013 015 000 03
220430 1144N 05600W 8429 01581 0110 +169 +141 254012 012 014 000 00
220500 1142N 05600W 8433 01577 0110 +170 +141 251012 012 014 000 00
220530 1140N 05600W 8430 01579 0111 +167 +142 252012 012 015 000 00
220600 1139N 05600W 8429 01581 0112 +166 +142 258012 012 015 000 00
220630 1137N 05600W 8430 01579 0114 +165 +143 260012 012 015 000 00
$$
;

[psyclone]

This system looks good...we need some persistence. Let's see if this latest convective burst can maintain. Seeing one during D-min seems to favor development.

[Sanibel]

Models are shredding 92L past the islands....( ? )

[Blown Away]

Convection on the rise...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172217
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 42 20170817
220700 1135N 05600W 8433 01577 0114 +165 +144 258012 012 015 000 03
220730 1134N 05600W 8432 01578 0114 +163 +144 261012 013 015 000 03
220800 1132N 05600W 8430 01580 0113 +165 +149 264011 012 015 000 00
220830 1130N 05600W 8433 01577 0112 +166 +153 263011 012 015 000 00
220900 1129N 05601W 8432 01579 0113 +165 +155 260013 013 015 000 03
220930 1127N 05600W 8425 01585 0113 +165 +156 256013 013 /// /// 03
221000 1128N 05558W 8431 01582 0116 +164 +154 250011 012 013 000 00
221030 1129N 05557W 8451 01562 0116 +165 +158 258011 012 014 000 00
221100 1130N 05556W 8424 01589 0113 +166 +158 255012 012 014 000 00
221130 1130N 05554W 8434 01579 0115 +165 +160 250011 012 014 000 00
221200 1131N 05553W 8433 01580 0115 +165 +159 240011 011 014 000 00
221230 1132N 05552W 8432 01582 0115 +165 +159 244011 012 014 000 00
221300 1133N 05550W 8432 01582 0115 +165 +160 245012 012 014 000 00
221330 1133N 05549W 8433 01580 0115 +165 +160 242011 012 014 000 00
221400 1134N 05548W 8432 01582 0115 +165 +159 241011 011 014 000 00
221430 1135N 05547W 8434 01579 0115 +165 +158 238012 012 014 000 03
221500 1136N 05545W 8432 01582 0115 +165 +157 238012 012 015 000 00
221530 1136N 05544W 8433 01581 0114 +165 +151 234011 012 015 000 03
221600 1137N 05543W 8430 01583 0114 +167 +150 232011 011 014 000 00
221630 1138N 05541W 8433 01581 0113 +169 +151 232011 011 014 000 00
$$
;

[sma10]

If anyone is curious, the red circle is where the new upper low that the models show moving westward with 92L is going to develop this evening.

It isn't even the large existing TUTT in the Central Atlantic that would cause it's ultimate demise. Looks like the GFS (and presumably the Euro) is forecasting a "lobe" of some sort to break off the TUTT currently moving westward thru the Bahamas. Apparently, this feature will form and sweep down south and engage 92L in a dance of death all the way thru the Bahamas.

I'm no pro, but I'm assuming this is what the Euro and GFS are seeing, and quite obviously the UK/CMC/HWRF are not seeing this. Who's correct? In past years, this would've been a no-brainer, if the Euro and GFS agree, right?

[SouthFLTropics]

If anyone is curious, the red circle is where the new upper low that the models show moving westward with 92L is going to develop this evening.

Yes - it isn't even the large existing ULL that would cause it's demise. Looks like the GFS (and presumably the Euro) is forecasting a "lobe" of some sort to break off the TUTT currently moving westward thru the Bahamas. Apparently, this feature will form and sweep down south and engage 92L in a dance of death all the way thru the Bahamas.

I'm no pro, but I'm assuming this is what the Euro and GFS are seeing, and quite obviously the UK/CMC/HWRF are not seeing this. Who's correct? In past years, this would've been a no-brainer, if the Euro and GFS agree, right?

Call me skeptical but I think they showed the same thing for Gert. We all know how that ended up. It's a rare occasion around here when none of us have faith in the GFS OR the EURO.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

If anyone is curious, the red circle is where the new upper low that the models show moving westward with 92L is going to develop this evening.

Yes - it isn't even the large existing ULL that would cause it's demise. Looks like the GFS (and presumably the Euro) is forecasting a "lobe" of some sort to break off the TUTT currently moving westward thru the Bahamas. Apparently, this feature will form and sweep down south and engage 92L in a dance of death all the way thru the Bahamas.

I'm no pro, but I'm assuming this is what the Euro and GFS are seeing, and quite obviously the UK/CMC/HWRF are not seeing this. Who's correct? In past years, this would've been a no-brainer, if the Euro and GFS agree, right?

Call me skeptical but I think they showed the same thing for Gert. We all know how that ended up. It's a rare occasion around here when none of us have faith in the GFS OR the EURO.

This will likely run into Cuba but if it doesn't watch out especially if your on the EC

[floridasun78]

tell you ture 92l look better and HARVEY

[sma10]

Call me skeptical but I think they showed the same thing for Gert. We all know how that ended up. It's a rare occasion around here when none of us have faith in the GFS OR the EURO.

I didn't actually follow Gert's formation that closely, but I do know the models were a little slow on the uptake. Are you saying a similar thing happened with Gert, where both models showed a spurious ULL forming?

[SouthFLTropics]

Yes - it isn't even the large existing ULL that would cause it's demise. Looks like the GFS (and presumably the Euro) is forecasting a "lobe" of some sort to break off the TUTT currently moving westward thru the Bahamas. Apparently, this feature will form and sweep down south and engage 92L in a dance of death all the way thru the Bahamas.

I'm no pro, but I'm assuming this is what the Euro and GFS are seeing, and quite obviously the UK/CMC/HWRF are not seeing this. Who's correct? In past years, this would've been a no-brainer, if the Euro and GFS agree, right?

Call me skeptical but I think they showed the same thing for Gert. We all know how that ended up. It's a rare occasion around here when none of us have faith in the GFS OR the EURO.

I didn't actually follow Gert's formation that closely, but I do know the models were a little slow on the uptake. Are you saying a similar thing happened with Gert, where both models showed a spurious ULL forming?

I believe that was the case...I think I saw Gatorcane chime in with something to that effect earlier today.

[sma10]

Call me skeptical but I think they showed the same thing for Gert. We all know how that ended up. It's a rare occasion around here when none of us have faith in the GFS OR the EURO.

I didn't actually follow Gert's formation that closely, but I do know the models were a little slow on the uptake. Are you saying a similar thing happened with Gert, where both models showed a spurious ULL forming?

I believe that was the case...I think I saw Gatorcane chime in with something to that effect earlier today.

Wow, that's bizarre. Well as RL3AO pointed out, it's supposed to form tonight around 30N 60W so we'll know more tomorrow

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172227
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 43 20170817
221700 1139N 05540W 8433 01581 0113 +167 +153 232012 012 013 000 00
221730 1139N 05539W 8433 01581 0114 +165 +155 228012 012 014 000 03
221800 1140N 05538W 8433 01582 0116 +165 +155 227012 012 014 000 00
221830 1141N 05536W 8433 01582 0116 +165 +156 232012 012 014 000 00
221900 1142N 05535W 8434 01581 0115 +168 +143 234012 012 014 000 00
221930 1142N 05534W 8433 01582 0114 +169 +144 233012 012 014 000 00
222000 1143N 05532W 8434 01581 0114 +169 +145 232012 012 014 000 00
222030 1144N 05531W 8433 01582 0116 +165 +156 227012 013 014 000 00
222100 1145N 05530W 8432 01582 0115 +165 +156 227013 013 014 000 00
222130 1146N 05529W 8432 01583 0113 +168 +157 222013 014 014 000 00
222200 1146N 05527W 8434 01579 0116 +165 +160 219012 013 014 000 03
222230 1147N 05526W 8433 01581 0116 +165 +159 219013 013 014 000 00
222300 1148N 05525W 8433 01581 0116 +165 +155 219012 013 014 000 00
222330 1149N 05523W 8433 01581 0116 +165 +151 224012 012 014 000 00
222400 1149N 05522W 8430 01583 0116 +165 +148 226012 012 014 000 00
222430 1150N 05521W 8433 01579 0116 +165 +153 226012 012 013 000 00
222500 1151N 05520W 8432 01582 0115 +165 +159 221012 013 013 000 00
222530 1152N 05518W 8433 01582 0116 +165 +160 218014 014 014 000 00
222600 1152N 05517W 8433 01581 0116 +165 +161 215014 014 014 000 00
222630 1153N 05516W 8433 01582 0115 +165 +161 216014 014 014 000 03
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Just for right now, 92L is looking really good. New convection is re-firing right over or very near where I believe the suspected LLC is for the time being. I think with near certainty this system is a tropical cyclone now.

I will reflect on what may await 92L more tomorrow.