ATL: TEN - Models

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#561 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:06 pm

GFS is laughable right now, theres no way Harvey is an open wave at hour 0.

Wow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#562 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:08 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS is laughable right now, theres no way Harvey is an open wave at hour 0.

Wow.

Or 92L for that matter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#563 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:18 pm

HWRF is SW of the 12z...92L may have to contend with land interaction this run. In order to survive 92L is going to have to thread the fine needle between the ULL's and land interaction.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#564 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:22 pm

78 hours north of Puerto Rico starting to consolidate. It better gain some latitude though or it's going to crash right into the mountains of Hispaniola.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#565 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:23 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF is rolling in right now...Need to look at around 78 hours for strengthening to begin.


1007mb@ 78hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#566 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:24 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:I don't know what a wetbulb is though. Lol


The wetbulb temperature is the temperature a parcel of air would have if it was cooled (by evaporation) until it reached saturation. It's extremely useful in winter weather forecasting and it plays a big part of the thermodynamics that allows snow to fall with above freezing temperatures.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#567 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:25 pm

RL3AO wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:I don't know what a wetbulb is though. Lol


The wetbulb temperature is the temperature a parcel of air would have if it was cooled (by evaporation) until it reached saturation. It's extremely useful in winter weather forecasting and it plays a big part of the thermodynamics that allows snow to fall with above freezing temperatures.


Thank you
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#568 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:27 pm

92L living dangerously on the north coast of the DR

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#569 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:27 pm

HWRF is dangerously close to crashing into Hispanola. Needs to pull up soon!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#570 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:28 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:HWRF is dangerously close to crashing into Hispanola. Needs to pull up soon!

Image


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It's intensifying so I think it might.
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#571 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:31 pm

Missing Hispanola.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#572 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:32 pm

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#573 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:32 pm

Cue the Bee Gees...Staying Alive, Staying Alive

:band:


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#574 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:36 pm

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#575 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:37 pm

Next obstacle...Cuba

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#576 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:38 pm

Weatheremperor...Keep in mind that those images are from 850 heights.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#577 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:38 pm

HWRF may carry this north of Cuba in into the straits directly. :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#578 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:41 pm

18Z GFS ensembles MUCH more bullish. Most recurve this into South Florida: :double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#579 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:42 pm

105 hours...just doing a little island hopping

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#580 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:43 pm

Will be interesting to see if that translates to the operational run at 00z Gatorcane
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