ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Just for right now, 92L is looking really good. New convection is re-firing right over or very near where I believe the suspected LLC is for the time being. I think with near certainty this system is a tropical cyclone now.

I will reflect on what may await 92L more tomorrow.

It is mostly mid levels I don't think it is a tropical cyclone it may become one before conditions become unfavorable

[floridasun78]

anyone have windward islands radar site ty

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172237
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 44 20170817
222700 1154N 05514W 8433 01581 0114 +166 +156 214013 014 014 000 00
222730 1155N 05513W 8432 01583 0116 +165 +153 210013 013 014 000 00
222800 1155N 05512W 8432 01583 0113 +170 +154 214013 013 013 000 00
222830 1156N 05511W 8433 01582 0113 +170 +156 212012 012 014 000 00
222900 1157N 05509W 8434 01579 0113 +170 +158 209012 012 014 000 00
222930 1158N 05508W 8430 01584 0115 +170 +158 206011 011 014 000 03
223000 1158N 05507W 8425 01590 0114 +167 +158 209011 011 013 000 00
223030 1157N 05505W 8430 01584 0116 +167 +157 205011 011 013 000 00
223100 1156N 05504W 8432 01583 0118 +165 +161 206011 012 013 000 00
223130 1155N 05503W 8433 01583 //// +165 //// 210011 012 013 000 01
223200 1154N 05502W 8432 01584 0117 +166 +157 211012 012 013 000 00
223230 1153N 05501W 8433 01583 0117 +165 +160 212012 012 013 000 03
223300 1152N 05500W 8434 01582 //// +165 //// 214013 013 013 000 01
223330 1151N 05500W 8443 01576 //// +164 //// 213011 013 013 000 05
223400 1150N 05500W 8424 01594 0119 +166 +164 203010 011 /// /// 05
223430 1150N 05501W 8429 01585 //// +165 //// 199011 011 013 000 01
223500 1151N 05502W 8435 01581 0116 +165 +161 201011 012 014 000 00
223530 1152N 05503W 8432 01585 0118 +165 +162 195012 012 013 000 01
223600 1153N 05504W 8433 01583 0119 +165 +161 198011 012 013 000 01
223630 1154N 05505W 8432 01585 //// +165 //// 191012 012 014 000 01
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Just for right now, 92L is looking really good. New convection is re-firing right over or very near where I believe the suspected LLC is for the time being. I think with near certainty this system is a tropical cyclone now.

I will reflect on what may await 92L more tomorrow.

It is mostly mid levels I don't think it is a tropical cyclone it may become one before conditions become unfavorable

Just my thoughts. I think is classifiable now. I think because it is not an imminent threat for the time being, NHC is not in a hurry to classify it now. However, as you pointed out, 92L has a small window to organize before shear increases in the next 36 hours.

[stormreader]

92L's almost definitely either a tropical cyclone now, or very, very close to becoming one. Again though, very bleak future.

I don't know Hyper. Model performance has been so poor this year. Looks like both of our systems, 92L and Harvey, are ahead of the curve as far as storm formation. I just don't think we can (in mid to late August with this active tropical environment staring right at us) assume that 92 L has a bleak future. It may have some rough moments ahead, but I think it's likely that it will have strong regenerative powers.

[AtlanticWind]

I saw a TCFA Was issued for 92

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172247
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 45 20170817
223700 1156N 05506W 8432 01584 0116 +167 +157 192012 013 014 000 00
223730 1157N 05507W 8432 01583 0115 +167 +153 194010 011 013 000 00
223800 1158N 05508W 8432 01583 0114 +168 +156 202011 011 013 000 00
223830 1159N 05509W 8432 01583 0114 +166 +155 200011 011 013 000 00
223900 1200N 05510W 8433 01584 0116 +168 +154 199011 012 012 000 03
223930 1201N 05511W 8430 01584 0112 +170 +152 199013 013 012 000 00
224000 1202N 05512W 8437 01576 0113 +167 +152 194012 013 012 000 00
224030 1203N 05514W 8430 01582 0111 +169 +151 199013 013 013 000 00
224100 1204N 05515W 8433 01577 0110 +170 +151 197013 013 012 000 00
224130 1205N 05516W 8432 01579 0111 +167 +151 199013 013 012 000 00
224200 1206N 05517W 8430 01579 0109 +167 +153 198013 014 012 000 00
224230 1207N 05518W 8435 01576 0110 +169 +152 202013 013 014 000 00
224300 1208N 05519W 8430 01581 0110 +168 +151 201012 013 013 000 00
224330 1209N 05520W 8432 01581 0110 +170 +148 201012 012 013 000 00
224400 1210N 05521W 8429 01582 0111 +170 +146 202013 013 012 000 00
224430 1211N 05522W 8437 01574 0110 +171 +145 203013 014 014 000 00
224500 1212N 05523W 8434 01578 0109 +173 +146 206014 014 013 000 00
224530 1214N 05524W 8429 01582 0107 +174 +144 196014 014 013 000 00
224600 1215N 05526W 8432 01578 0107 +175 +143 195013 014 013 000 00
224630 1216N 05527W 8432 01578 0106 +175 +142 196014 014 013 000 00
$$
;

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I saw a TCFA Was issued for 92

Yeah true maybe I'm wrong I just think it's mostly Mid level

[Hammy]

anyone have windward islands radar site ty

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_centralAtlantic&Composite=Sabre&

[stormreader]

If anyone is curious, the red circle is where the new upper low that the models show moving westward with 92L is going to develop this evening.

Yes - it isn't even the large existing ULL that would cause it's demise. Looks like the GFS (and presumably the Euro) is forecasting a "lobe" of some sort to break off the TUTT currently moving westward thru the Bahamas. Apparently, this feature will form and sweep down south and engage 92L in a dance of death all the way thru the Bahamas.

I'm no pro, but I'm assuming this is what the Euro and GFS are seeing, and quite obviously the UK/CMC/HWRF are not seeing this. Who's correct? In past years, this would've been a no-brainer, if the Euro and GFS agree, right?

Call me skeptical but I think they showed the same thing for Gert. We all know how that ended up. It's a rare occasion around here when none of us have faith in the GFS OR the EURO.

Yes. Going to check the model thread to see updates from the UKMET. If its outlooks turns out to be more correct (intensity-wise), it may also reflect a better handle on the track (assuming a full-fledged hurricane). If Euro and GFS hit it this time, will give them credit. But a miss here, with a storm that has US landfall potential, would not be good.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

92L's almost definitely either a tropical cyclone now, or very, very close to becoming one. Again though, very bleak future.

I don't know Hyper. Model performance has been so poor this year. Looks like both of our systems, 92L and Harvey, are ahead of the curve as far as storm formation. I just don't think we can (in mid to late August with this active tropical environment staring right at us) assume that 92 L has a bleak future. It may have some rough moments ahead, but I think it's likely that it will have strong regenerative powers.

That may be, but I can see why the models are so bleak quite clearly. Those two ULL's are going to get awfully close to 92L, almost right over it.

[AtlanticWind]

ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 170817180000
2017081718
15.1 315.4
18.2 310.1
100
18.2 310.4
171900
1708171900
2
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT22 KNGU 171900
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/171900Z AUG 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT22 KNGU 171900)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 44.8W TO 18.2N 49.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE FORM OF
SPIRAL CURVED BANDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN THESE RAINBANDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 30 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181900Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 51.9W//
9217081718 153N 448W 30

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172257
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 46 20170817
224700 1217N 05528W 8433 01577 0105 +177 +143 197015 015 014 000 00
224730 1218N 05529W 8432 01579 0105 +178 +142 195015 015 013 000 00
224800 1219N 05530W 8433 01577 0105 +180 +136 197015 015 013 000 00
224830 1220N 05531W 8432 01578 0103 +181 +131 198014 015 014 000 00
224900 1221N 05532W 8434 01574 0101 +183 +125 197014 014 013 000 00
224930 1222N 05533W 8429 01579 0102 +180 +130 197013 013 015 000 00
225000 1223N 05534W 8434 01576 0101 +183 +131 196013 013 014 000 00
225030 1224N 05535W 8433 01577 0101 +181 +143 196012 013 015 000 00
225100 1225N 05536W 8433 01576 0102 +177 +149 190011 012 018 000 00
225130 1227N 05538W 8439 01568 0101 +171 +163 184013 014 019 000 01
225200 1228N 05539W 8434 01574 0101 +176 +163 188013 015 015 000 00
225230 1229N 05540W 8432 01577 0101 +179 +151 181014 015 014 000 00
225300 1230N 05541W 8430 01577 0100 +179 +150 173011 012 015 000 00
225330 1231N 05542W 8435 01571 0099 +180 +158 170010 010 014 000 00
225400 1232N 05543W 8431 01576 0099 +177 +157 166011 011 015 000 00
225430 1233N 05544W 8433 01572 0097 +177 +162 166012 012 015 000 00
225500 1234N 05545W 8435 01571 0097 +177 +161 171011 012 018 000 00
225530 1235N 05546W 8429 01576 0097 +176 +161 183013 014 016 000 00
225600 1236N 05548W 8430 01574 0096 +177 +169 175014 015 016 000 03
225630 1238N 05549W 8416 01587 0093 +181 +157 177014 014 016 000 00
$$
;

[stormreader]

ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 170817180000
2017081718
15.1 315.4
18.2 310.1
100
18.2 310.4
171900
1708171900
2
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT22 KNGU 171900
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/171900Z AUG 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT22 KNGU 171900)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 44.8W TO 18.2N 49.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE FORM OF
SPIRAL CURVED BANDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN THESE RAINBANDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 30 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181900Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 51.9W//
9217081718 153N 448W 30

So it begins. About to get a lot more real and less academic.

[northjaxpro]

Well, right on cue! The ATCF just posted
LOL.. I swear someone at NHC is reading our posts on this forum ... j/k..... lol..

[Hammy]

After passing a buoy it looks like the low level flow is trying to close off, could succeed if we get a decent convective burst overnight.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172307
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 47 20170817
225700 1239N 05550W 8434 01568 0093 +180 +157 174014 015 016 000 00
225730 1240N 05551W 8432 01571 0095 +179 +155 175016 016 015 000 00
225800 1241N 05552W 8433 01570 0094 +177 +156 169016 017 016 000 00
225830 1242N 05554W 8429 01573 0092 +181 +154 168015 017 017 000 00
225900 1244N 05555W 8433 01568 0091 +183 +155 172013 014 018 000 00
225930 1245N 05556W 8430 01572 0091 +184 +147 178014 014 019 000 00
230000 1246N 05557W 8432 01570 0089 +185 +144 179014 014 020 000 00
230030 1247N 05559W 8433 01567 0089 +185 +141 176015 015 021 000 00
230100 1248N 05600W 8430 01570 0087 +186 +147 174015 015 021 000 00
230130 1250N 05601W 8433 01567 0086 +185 +156 176015 015 021 000 00
230200 1251N 05602W 8432 01567 0088 +182 +157 174015 015 022 000 00
230230 1252N 05603W 8433 01566 0087 +181 +171 169016 017 022 000 00
230300 1253N 05605W 8432 01566 0084 +183 +168 165016 017 022 000 00
230330 1255N 05606W 8433 01565 0085 +182 +162 158017 018 023 000 00
230400 1256N 05607W 8432 01564 0085 +181 +160 160018 018 022 000 00
230430 1257N 05609W 8427 01567 0086 +179 +144 154019 020 020 001 00
230500 1257N 05610W 8442 01555 0079 +186 +164 156018 019 019 000 00
230530 1257N 05612W 8429 01562 0074 +189 +165 157016 017 017 000 03
230600 1257N 05614W 8434 01556 0073 +191 +166 142014 016 016 000 03
230630 1256N 05615W 8430 01559 0069 +196 +159 143013 015 016 000 00
$$
;

[AubreyStorm]

Convection on the rise...

Awesome, and due west right now!

[gatorcane]

Here is a loop. Looks like a developing TC to me. Chances got to be going up for the 8pm outlook.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hurricaneman]

Convection on the rise...

Awesome, and due west right now!

Might keep it out of the shear if it heads more west short term