ATL: TEN - Models

[gatorcane]

Will be interesting to see if that translates to the operational run at 00z Gatorcane

Could be the start of the GFS showing development. That is the most bullish the ensembles have been and should be an eye opener.

[Kingarabian]

Will be interesting to see if that translates to the operational run at 00z Gatorcane

I know it's getting old and tiring but unfortunately the GEFS have also been bad.

[SouthFLTropics]

Will be interesting to see if that translates to the operational run at 00z Gatorcane

I know it's getting old and tiring but unfortunately the GEFS have also been bad.

Well they're either going to develop or they're not...One way or another something is going to be right and something is going to be wrong. I suspect that if 92L survives the TUTT that's dropping down right now we will see the GFS and Euro respond and bring it to life north of the big islands.

[SouthFLTropics]

Crashing into Cuba...Cat 1

[SouthFLTropics]

Simulated IR at landfall

[SouthFLTropics]

Alarming is in only 9 hours leading up to landfall the pressure dropped almost 20MB and the wind speed jumped up by almost 25 knots.

[sma10]

18Z GFS ensembles MUCH more bullish. Most recurve this into South Florida:

Wow, is the ensemble member hitting Key Largo actually at 943mb?

[AutoPenalti]

Wow.

[SouthFLTropics]

Crossing Cuba

[hd44]

See gefs are now really biting. I mentioned before this looks like a decent risk.

[Weather150]

18z GFS ensemble tracks.

[TheStormExpert]

18Z GFS ensembles MUCH more bullish. Most recurve this into South Florida:

But haven't the 18z GEFS Ensembles for the whatever reason been rather bullish everyday since the upgrade last month?

[FLpanhandle91]

Relatively low elevation in the region of Cuba that the HWRF shows 92L crossing.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like 3 or 4 ensembles have a hurricane, will be interesting to watch

[TheStormExpert]

Will be interesting to see if that translates to the operational run at 00z Gatorcane

Could be the start of the GFS showing development. That is the most bullish the ensembles have been and should be an eye opener.

Most bullish even for 18z?

[p1nheadlarry]

Alarming is in only 9 hours leading up to landfall the pressure dropped almost 20MB and the wind speed jumped up by almost 25 knots.

If it's offshore Cuba, the way the island slopes down...maybe a storm coming from the east doesn't have the same problems with land interaction? Thinking about it in a vector addition sense.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF finishes with Irma emerging into the Caribbean Sea on the South coast of Cuba...

I'm almost scared to think how strong it may have gotten if it hadn't have made landfall on the North Cuba coast.

[gatorcane]

Will be interesting to see if that translates to the operational run at 00z Gatorcane

Could be the start of the GFS showing development. That is the most bullish the ensembles have been and should be an eye opener.

Most bullish even for 18z?

The GFS ensembles haven't shown a whole lot for this invest until this run. 12Z run showed this:



Compare to 18Z run at same timeframe:

[GCANE]

[WeatherEmperor]

Could this pull an Ike and go SW into Cuba and then the NW Caribbean???


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