ATL: HARVEY - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM.

[South Texas Storms]

18z HWRF shows Harvey tracking northwestward into the Bay of Campeche at the end of the run. It's still too early to rule out a track towards Texas.

[ROCK]

18z HWRF shows Harvey tracking northwestward into the Bay of Campeche at the end of the run. It's still too early to rule out a track towards Texas.

Agree..the latest runs show an uptick in latitude..is too early to tell..btw the GFS is killing me..

[stormreader]

18Z NAVGEM.

Well, I'm not a model conniseur like most who post here. But I have learned to really appreciate the varying model solutions. I like this model. With other mainstream models now bordering on "fake news", models like the Navgem are being looked at with more seriousness. I remember last year for Mathew, the Navgem did quite well in gotcha sting a much further west track nearer conus while mainstream models were still much further east. The solution here seems reasonable.

[ROCK]

I like the NAVGEM ever since they changed the name..NOGAPS was horrid..

[NDG]

Well let's not forget that the GFS completely busted on Franklin in the very same area.

As of now I'm discounting the GFS because it only intensifys storms if they are in a 30%humidity environment and a 40KT shear environment it's a laughing stock

Good one!

[Sciencerocks]

Well let's not forget that the GFS completely busted on Franklin in the very same area.

As of now I'm discounting the GFS because it only intensifys storms if they are in a 30%humidity environment and a 40KT shear environment it's a laughing stock

Good one!

Yep, it also busted with Gert and Don.

[ROCK]

Waiting on 0z guidance..sort exciting to see new runs with recon ingested. Not sure 18z runs had them but I haven't been this excited since the 2008 season...

[ROCK]

Little bit of spread..compared to earlier..

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/pls/portal/ ... RM_DISPLAY

[stormlover2013]

??

[Cpv17]

Waiting on 0z guidance..sort exciting to see new runs with recon ingested. Not sure 18z runs had them but I haven't been this excited since the 2008 season...

Care to explain why you're so excited about this season?

[StormTracker]

Waiting on 0z guidance..sort exciting to see new runs with recon ingested. Not sure 18z runs had them but I haven't been this excited since the 2008 season...

Care to explain why you're so excited about this season?

Cpv17, you haven't been around this forum as long as us, so you don't understand how exciting it is to see invests actually developing or hopefully developing and having something to track and learn from, at the same time not causing damage or bringing harm to people, after so many "non-productive seasons" we've had lately! Once recon goes in and gets hardcore data, they inject it into the models and then we hope & pray we get good output from them as to what these systems are going to do...ST

[Cpv17]

Waiting on 0z guidance..sort exciting to see new runs with recon ingested. Not sure 18z runs had them but I haven't been this excited since the 2008 season...

Care to explain why you're so excited about this season?

Cpv17, you haven't been around this forum as long as us, so you don't understand how exciting it is to see invests actually developing or hopefully developing and having something to track and learn from, at the same time not causing damage or bringing harm to people, after so many "non-productive seasons" we've had lately!

I get that. I just would like to know what's all the excitement about. What's the reason behind it? What makes y'all believe that this season would be any different from previous years?

[Steve]

Care to explain why you're so excited about this season?

Cpv17, you haven't been around this forum as long as us, so you don't understand how exciting it is to see invests actually developing or hopefully developing and having something to track and learn from, at the same time not causing damage or bringing harm to people, after so many "non-productive seasons" we've had lately!

I get that. I just would like to know what's all the excitement about. What's the reason behind it? What makes y'all believe that this season would be any different from previous years?

Rock's in Texas. Not every season has a western bias. He's got a 25-30 day window.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Care to explain why you're so excited about this season?

Cpv17, you haven't been around this forum as long as us, so you don't understand how exciting it is to see invests actually developing or hopefully developing and having something to track and learn from, at the same time not causing damage or bringing harm to people, after so many "non-productive seasons" we've had lately!

I get that. I just would like to know what's all the excitement about. What's the reason behind it? What makes y'all believe that this season would be any different from previous years?

First season since 2012 without any type of El Nino effects and/or thermohaline circulation effects (looking at you 2013). Both of which had a negative impact on many systems. It's been a while

[StormTracker]

Care to explain why you're so excited about this season?

Cpv17, you haven't been around this forum as long as us, so you don't understand how exciting it is to see invests actually developing or hopefully developing and having something to track and learn from, at the same time not causing damage or bringing harm to people, after so many "non-productive seasons" we've had lately!

I get that. I just would like to know what's all the excitement about. What's the reason behind it? What makes y'all believe that this season would be any different from previous years?

I guess we're looking to see if the models can re-engage and get back in the game!

[Cpv17]

I'm in Texas myself. I've lived here my whole life. I'm around the Wharton/El Campo area. One hour southwest of Houston. I'm just one hour from Matagorda so if a strong system came here it would hit us pretty hard being that I'm just one hour from the coast. I've never experienced a hurricane in my life. The closest threat we've had here since I've been alive was Claudette I believe back in 03. We didn't get much out of it here though. Also, been through a couple tropical storms. We didn't get anything out of Ike here at all. I'm just in the camp where I believe it's very difficult to get a strong hurricane into the middle TX coast. It seems like they either get buried into Mexico or a trough picks them up and sends them well east of here. And usually our hurricane season is over after the middle of September.

[StormTracker]

I'm in Texas myself. I've lived here my whole life. I'm around the Wharton/El Campo area. One hour southwest of Houston. I'm just one hour from Matagorda so if a strong system came here it would hit us pretty hard being that I'm just one hour from the coast. I've never experienced a hurricane in my life. The closest threat we've had here since I've been alive was Claudette I believe back in 03. We didn't get much out of it here though. Also, been through a couple tropical storms. We didn't get anything out of Ike here at all. I'm just in the camp where I believe it's very difficult to get a strong hurricane into the middle TX coast. It seems like they either get buried into Mexico or a trough picks them up and sends them well east of here. And usually our hurricane season is over after the middle of September.

The NAVGEM wants to send Harvey your way, but trust me, you don't want to see that! I was like you when I experienced Andrew...ST
https://s3.postimg.org/ofb6k33k3/nvg10. ... oplant.gif

[Steve]

I hear you. It does happen though. Everywhere from Kings Ranch up through south of Galveston have been hit. It's just not as often that systems are in the NW Gulf because of what they have to do to get there (talking about systems from the East). I don't think y'all get anything out of this burst because I don't see Harvey getting anywhere near Texas. But possibly the next period of amplification if it's not too late in the year. Mean trough position for summer high tide will be west of the TX Coast. So it's not out of the question that Texas could see some action this year.

[StormTracker]